Market news & insights
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Markets retreated last week, pulling back about 2.5-3% from record levels. While the decline is modest, it is marked by several headwinds that could create further pressure this week.
Government Shutdown Reaches Historic Length
The ongoing shutdown has now reached record duration, and there's still no clear resolution in sight. Healthcare remains the primary sticking point between the two sides. Some reports suggest potential progress, but the jury's still out on whether any deal will materialise or gain bipartisan support before the Thanksgiving holiday season.
Key Economic Data May Be Delayed
The shutdown's impact extends to data releases. Market-influencing government reports, including jobs numbers and CPI data, may be delayed this week — CPI is still technically scheduled, but the shutdown could affect its release. This data delay will make it harder to gauge the economy's true direction and could inject further volatility into markets.
Earnings Season Continues to Impress
Despite these macro headwinds, corporate America is delivering exceptional results. We're seeing an 82% EPS beat rate and 77% of companies exceeding revenue expectations. While we're in the final 10% of S&P 500 reports, some important retail stocks are still due. These consumer-facing companies could provide valuable insights into spending patterns and economic health.
NVIDIA Tests Critical Support Level
AI stocks are facing pressure, with NVIDIA testing a key technical level around $180-$185. The stock experienced five consecutive days of losses before bouncing strongly on Friday with a major wick rejection. If support at $180 breaks, we could see a drop to $165. However, Friday's bounce suggests a possible retest of $193. This is a crucial moment for the AI sector leader, and its direction could influence broader tech sentiment.
Market Insights
Watch the latest video from Mike Smith for the week ahead in markets.
Key economic events
Keep up to date with the upcoming economic events for the week.
Chris Gore ( LinkedIn ) is GO Markets’ CEO, Company Secretary and Responsible Manager for their AFSL licence. He’s a long-serving staff member at GO Markets and an industry veteran in the Forex operations and commentary business, with at least 10 years’ experience. Chris is most known for showing a level-headed approach to a market that often opts for scuttlebutt and hearsay.
This is a fascinating episode recorded earlier in the year, where we covered: Distribution & intervention bill Applying new laws, Consumer risk, leverage GO Markets update and future Recent AU election, market movement Current state of economy Global state of affairs
Vee Leung Phan ( @TrackRecordAsia ) is the Founder of TrackRecord Asia and former Head of Trading across multiple divisions for Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley. TrackRecord Asia is a financial training academy for trading teams in banks and professional traders – designed to teach you the frameworks learnt in his days across first-class institutions. In this follow-up episode from Season 1, we covered: TrackRecord Asia Philosophy & Risk management His approach to trading Global state of affairs Hong Kong protests & China
Martin North is the Principal of Digital Finance Analytics, a boutique research, analysis and consulting firm. This former consultant of Booz Allen & Fujitsu Australia pedigree is well known for his level-headed approach to financial markets & the economy. His Walk The World channel on YouTube is a must for astute economy watchers in Australia.
While his commentary is highly regarded across mainstream media such as the AFR, Sydney Morning Herald, the ABC, 9News and many more. In this episode we covered: Growing up in UK & early memories His career path and insight, corporate consulting The state of Australia’s economy, housing sector Productive vs. non-value adding investments His first 90 days as Prime Minister; and His take on crypto.
Holding over 11 years of experience as both a trader and educator, Craig has always been the type to distil noise into digestible information. He is one of the most original & astute Australian commentators from the early days of the industry and with that comes a wealth of market experience. Well known for his institutional background, Craig has helped many in the crypto space navigate this fascinating new world with a framework that can be applied to all asset classes.
In this episode we covered: Chronic fatigue syndrome How he got into trading Successes and failures The state of crypto; and Cobb’s trading principles
Daryl Guppy is the founder of GuppyTraders.com, Commentator for CNBC Asia, Author of multiple books on trading including Share Trading, Bear Trading and Trading Asian Shares. He is one of the most original and astute Australian commentators from the early days of the industry and with that comes a wealth of market experience. In this episode we covered: China and his experience How he got into financial markets Technical charting, Fundamental analysis How Guppytraders.com started; and Perception of China and the Trade Wars.
Rupert Hackett is the Co-Founder and Advisor at Caleb & Brown, while also a Director at ADCA (Australia Digital Commerce Association). Caleb & Brown is Australia’s first cryptocurrency brokerage, and Rupert is undoubtedly one of the best minds when it comes to local industry governance in Australia. This was a great chat on the developments in the world of cryptocurrency on the client side on the business.
In this episode we covered: OTC, Caleb & Brown Crypto, consulting, and risk How exchanges and settlements work Client demographics and acquisition; and The global crypto market & analytics.