February’s FX landscape is likely to be driven by inflation persistence, labour resilience, and central bank communications. With several high-impact data releases across the US, Europe, Japan and Australia, near-term moves may be more event-driven and repricing-led, rather than trend-led. 

Quick facts

• USD remains the key reference point, with US data driving repricing in yields and the broader FX market.
• EUR sensitivity remains high around European Central Bank (ECB) messaging and incoming inflation and activity signals.
• JPY remains tightly linked to domestic data and Bank of Japan (BOJ) communication, with USD/JPY often reacting sharply to shifts in yield expectations.
• AUD remains policy sensitive, with domestic inflation and labour data likely to matter most, alongside global risk tone and metals.

US dollar (USD)

Key events

• Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) and unemployment: 8:30 am, 11 February (ET) | 12:30 am, 12 February (AEDT)
• Consumer Price Index (CPI), headline and core: 8:30 am, 13 February (ET) | 12:30, 13 February (AEDT)
• Personal income and outlays (includes the PCE price index): 8:30, 20 February (ET) | 12:30, 21 February (AEDT)

What to watch

The USD is likely to remain primarily driven by shifts in inflation and labour data and their implications for Federal Reserve rate expectations. Recent headlines surrounding Federal Reserve independence have also added volatility to USD positioning. 

Stronger inflation or labour resilience is often associated with firmer USD support via higher yield expectations. Softer outcomes could reduce rate support and allow pairs like EUR/USD and AUD/USD to stabilise.

Key chart: US dollar index (DXY) weekly chart

‍

Euro (EUR)

Key events

• ECB policy decision: 12:15 am, 6 February (AEDT)
• ECB press conference: 12:45 am, 6 February (AEDT)
• ECB flash estimates for GDP and employment: 8:00 pm, 13 February (AEDT)

What to watch

EUR direction remains linked to whether the ECB can maintain its stance without a material deterioration in activity, or whether inflation and growth data pull forward easing expectations.

Resilient growth and firm inflation could support the “higher for longer” pricing bias. Weaker growth or softer inflation could weigh on the currency, particularly if they bring forward easing expectations.

Key chart: EUR/USD weekly chart

‍

Japanese yen (JPY)

Key events

• Japan preliminary GDP (Q4 2025, first preliminary): 6:50 pm, 15 February (ET) | 10:50 am, 16 February (AEDT)
• National CPI (Japan): 20 February (Japan) 

What to watch

JPY remains sensitive to domestic yield shifts and BOJ communication. Even modest adjustments to policy expectations could generate outsized moves in USD/JPY.

Firm growth or inflation outcomes could support JPY via higher domestic yields and shifting BOJ expectations. Softer outcomes or cautious policy messaging could keep USD/JPY supported.

Key chart: USD/JPY daily chart

‍

Australian dollar (AUD)

Key events

• RBA minutes: 11:30 am, 17 February (AEDT)
• Wage Price Index: 11:30 am, 18 February (AEDT)
• Labour Force Survey: 11:30 am, 19 February (AEDT)
• Consumer Price Index (CPI): 11:30 am, 25 February (AEDT)

What to watch

AUD remains sensitive to policy, responding quickly to domestic inflation and labour data, as well as global risk sentiment and its impact on metal pricing.

Persistent wages or inflation pressures could support AUD via firmer policy expectations. Softening data could reduce rate support and weigh on AUD performance, particularly versus USD and JPY.

Key chart: EUR/AUD daily chart

Three data levers dominate the US markets in February: growth, labour and inflation. Beyond those, policy communication, trade headlines and geopolitics can still matter, even when they are not tied to a scheduled release date.

Growth: business activity and trade

Early to mid-month indicators provide a read on whether US momentum is stabilising or softening into Q1.

Key dates

• Advance monthly retail sales: 10 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 11 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT) 
• Industrial Production and Capacity Utilisation: 18 Feb, 9:15 am (ET) / 19 Feb, 1:15 am (AEDT) 
• International Trade in Goods and Services: 19 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 20 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT) 

What markets look for

Markets will be watching new orders and output trends in PMIs to gauge underlying demand momentum. Export and import data will offer insights into global trade flows and domestic consumption patterns. Traders will also assess whether manufacturing and services sectors remain in expansionary territory or show signs of contraction.

Market sensitivities

• Stronger growth can be associated with higher yields and a firmer USD, though inflation and policy expectations often dominate the rate response.
• Softer activity can be associated with lower yields and improved risk appetite, depending on inflation, positioning, and broader risk conditions.

‍

Payrolls data

Labour conditions remain a direct input into rate expectations. The monthly NFP report, alongside the weekly jobless claims released every Thursday, is typically watched for signs of cooling or renewed tightness.

Key dates

• Employment Situation (nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, wages): 6 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 7 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT) 

What markets look for

Markets will focus on headline payrolls to assess the pace of job creation, the unemployment rate for signals of labour market slack, and average hourly earnings as a gauge of wage pressures. A gradual cooling can support the idea that wage pressures are easing. Persistent tightness may push out expectations for policy easing.

Market sensitivities

Payroll surprises frequently move Treasury yields and the USD quickly, with knock-on effects for equities and commodities.

‍

Inflation: CPI, PPI and PCE

Inflation releases remain a key input into expectations for the Fed’s policy path.

Key dates

• Consumer Price Index (CPI): 11 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 12 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT) 
• Personal Income and Outlays, including the PCE price index): 20 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 21 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT) 
• Producer Price Index (PPI): 27 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 28 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT) 

What markets look for

Producer prices can act as a pipeline signal. CPI and the PCE price index can help confirm whether inflation pressures are broadening or fading at the consumer level.

How rates and the USD can react

• Cooling inflation can support lower yields and a softer USD, though market reactions can vary.
• Sticky inflation can keep upward pressure on yields and financial conditions, especially if it shifts policy expectations.

‍

Other influencing factors

Policy and communication

There is no scheduled February FOMC meeting, but speeches and other Fed communication, as well as the minutes cycle from prior meetings, can still influence expectations around the policy path.  Without a decision event, markets often react to shifts in tone, or renewed emphasis on inflation persistence and labour conditions.

Trade and geopolitics

Trade flows and energy markets can remain secondary, and the risk profile is typically headline-driven rather than linked to scheduled releases.

The Office of the United States Trade Representative has published fact sheets and policy updates (including on US-India trade engagement) that may occasionally influence sector and supply-chain sentiment at the margin, depending on the substance and market focus at the time. 

Separately, volatility tied to Middle East developments and any impact on energy pricing can filter into inflation expectations and bond yields. Weekly petroleum market data from the US Energy Information Administration is one input that markets often monitor for near-term signals.

Every four years, the Olympics does something markets understand very well: it concentrates attention. And when attention concentrates, so do headlines, narratives, positioning… and sometimes, price.

The Olympics isn’t just “two weeks of sport.” For traders, it’s a two-week global marketing and tourism event, delivered in real time, often while Australia is asleep.

So, let’s make this useful.

Scheduled dates: Friday 6 February to Sunday 22 February 2026
Where: Milan, Cortina d’Ampezzo, and alpine venues across northern Italy

What matters (and what doesn’t)

Matters

• Money moving early: Infrastructure, transport upgrades, sponsorship, media rights and tourism booking trends.
• Narrative amid liquidity: Themed trades can run harder than fundamentals, especially when volume shows up but can also reverse quickly.
• Earnings language: Traders often watch whether companies start referencing demand, bookings, ad spend, or guidance tailwinds.

Doesn’t

• Medal counts (controversial statement, I know).

Why the Olympics matter to markets

The Olympics are not just two weeks of sport. For host regions, they often reflect years of planning, investment and marketing and then all of that gets shoved into one concentrated global media moment. That’s why markets pay attention, even when the fundamentals haven’t suddenly reinvented themselves.

Here are a few themes host regions may see. Outcomes vary by host, timing, and the macro backdrop.

Theme map: where headlines usually cluster

Construction and materials
Logistics upgrades, transport links, and “sustainable” builds.

Luxury and tourism
Milan’s fashion-capital status starts turning into demand well before opening night.

Media and streaming
Advertising increases as audiences surge and platforms cash in.

Transport and travel
Airlines, hotels and travel tech riding the volume, and the expectations.

For Australian-based traders, the key idea is exposure, not geography. Italian listings aren’t required to see the theme while simultaneously, some people look for ASX-listed companies whose earnings may be linked to similar forces (travel demand, discretionary spend). The connection is not guaranteed. It depends on the business, the numbers and the valuation.

The ASX shortlist

The ASX shortlist is simply a way to organise the local market by exposure, so you can see which parts of the index are most likely to pick up the spillover. It is not a forecast and it is not a recommendation, it is a framework for tracking how a narrative moves from headlines into sector pricing, and for separating genuine theme exposure from names that are only catching the noise.

Wesfarmers (WES): broad retail exposure that gives a read on the local consumer.

Flight Centre (FLT): may offer higher exposure to travel cycles across retail and corporate.

Corporate Travel Management (CTD): business travel sensitivity, and it often reacts to conference and event demands.

The Aussie toolkit

The Olympics compresses attention, and when attention compresses, a handful of instruments tend to register it first while everything else just picks up noise. The whole point here is monitoring and discipline, not variety. 

FX: the fastest headline absorber

Examples: EUR/USD, EUR/AUD, with AUD/JPY often watched as broader risk-sentiment signals.
What it captures: how markets are pricing European optimism, global risk appetite, and where capital is leaning in real time

Index benchmarks: the sentiment dashboard

Examples (index level): Euro Stoxx 50, DAX, FTSE, S&P 500.
What it can capture: whether a headline is broad enough to influence wider positioning, or whether it stays contained to a narrow theme.

Commodities: second order, often the amplifier

Examples: copper (industrial sensitivity), Brent/WTI (energy and geopolitics), gold (risk/uncertainty).
What it can capture: the bigger drivers (USD, rates, growth expectations, weather and geopolitics) with the Olympics usually acting as the wrapper rather than the engine.

Put together, this is not a prediction, and it is not a shopping list. It is a compact map of where the Olympics story is most likely to show itself first, where it might spread next, and where it sometimes shows up late, after everyone has already decided how they feel about it.

Your calendar is not Europe’s calendar

For Aussie traders, the Olympics is a two-week, overnight headline cycle. Much of the “live” information flow is likely to land during the European and US sessions. However, there are three windows to keep in mind.

‍

‍
Watch this space.

In the next piece, we’ll build the Euro checklist and map the volatility windows around Milano–Cortina so you can see when the market is actually pricing the story, and when it is just reacting to noise.