Indices Trading – What are Indices and how to use CFDs to trade them
Lachlan Meakin
22/9/2023
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Index trading is one of the most popular class of markets to trade for CFD traders, rivalling major FX pairs in trading volume, but what is indices trading and how does trading them with CFDs work? Most people will be familiar with the names of the major stock indices from financial reports in all forms of media, the most popular stock indices of CFD traders and the stocks they track are below: USA The Dow Jones Industrial average - 30 largest blue-chip companies in the US NASDAQ Composite Index – Top 100 largest non-financial companies in the US (Mostly Tech) S&P 500 Index - 500 large cap companies in the US (Bank heavy) Europe and UK FTSE 100 – Top 100 UK companies CAC 40 – Top 40 French companies DAX 40 – Top 40 German companies (Formerly known as the DAX30 which it may still be labelled as) Asia and Australia ASX 200 – Top 200 Australian companies Hang Seng - A selection of the largest companies in Hong Kong. Nikkei 225 - Consists of 225 stocks in the Prime Market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange Some of the advantages of trading indices: You can take a broad view of the health (or not) of that countries stock market, i.e. rather than take a position in a single stock, take a position in a basket of stocks by buying or selling the index they are components of.
Higher leverage available to trade stock indices, up to 100:1 for qualified Pro clients. Extended trading hours, you can take positions in most indices up to 23 hours a day, far greater hours than the underlying stock exchanges. Take positions long or short with ease to profit from both a rising and falling market.
When you take a Long (Buy) position you profit if the market moves up, a Short (Sell) position will profit when the market moves down. How Indices are priced and understanding your position size Stock Indices are priced in the native currency i.e., the Dow Jones (WS30 on the GO Markets platform) is priced in USD, the FTSE100 in GBP, the ASX200 in AUD etc. This is important to keep in mind when choosing your position size, it also important to know the specifications of the contract you are trading is to make sure you understand the lot sizing before entering a trade.
You can check the specifications of any contract on MT4 and MT5 by right clicking it in the Market Watch Window and selecting “Specification” An example specification of the Dow (WS30) is below (MT4 specs, MT5 is very similar): You can see in the example above that the WS30 contract with GO Markets has a contract size of 1, this means 1 lot will equal $1 USD per point movement in PnL if you take a position. e.g., if you buy 1 lot at a price of 33670 and the price rises to 33680 you are in profit by 10 points, which would equal $10 USD Most indices will have a contract size of 1, though it is advisable to always check as some may have different values, an example in the S&P 500 (US500) which has a contract size of 10. It is important to understand the contract size and base currency of the index you are trading before entering a trade to avoid any nasty surprises. Main drivers of what moves an Index’s price.
In choosing which Index to trade it is also important to understand the drivers of that index and it’s component stocks. All Indexes will have some common drivers, such as global growth concerns, geopolitical events and non-US indices will be affected (fairly or not) by what US markets are doing. Each index will also have its own individual drivers as well though.
Examples The NASDAQ (NDX100) is heavily weighted with mega cap tech stocks, the health of the Tech sector will heavily influence its price. The ASX200 and FTSE100 both have large contingents of miners, meaning commodity prices will be big drivers of these 2 indexes, more so the ASX200. The Russell 2000 has many regional and mid-size banks as its component stocks, which is why during the recent banking crisis it underperformed other US indices.
Understanding these unique drivers for each Index is recommended to make the best trading decisions possible. In Summary, trading Indices opens up some great opportunities to position yourself to profit from market moves, spreads on Indices with GO Markets are some of the best in the CFD industry, with tight spreads in and out of hours( Some brokers will artificially increase spreads on Indices outside the stock market hours of that country) They allow you to seamlessly take long or short positions to speculate for profit, or to headge existing stock positions from an overnight move. You can click the link below to learn more about Index trading with GO Markets. https://www.gomarkets.com/au/index-trading-cfds/
By
Lachlan Meakin
Head of Research, GO Markets Australia.
The information provided is of general nature only and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on any information provided, you should consider whether the information is suitable for you and your personal circumstances and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. All opinions, conclusions, forecasts or recommendations are reasonably held at the time of compilation but are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Go Markets Pty Ltd, ABN 85 081 864 039, AFSL 254963 is a CFD issuer, and trading carries significant risks and is not suitable for everyone. You do not own or have any interest in the rights to the underlying assets. You should consider the appropriateness by reviewing our TMD, FSG, PDS and other CFD legal documents to ensure you understand the risks before you invest in CFDs. These documents are available here.
Latin America recorded $730 billion in crypto volume in 2025. Across the region, 57.7 million people now own some form of digital currency rankingslatam, a base that is growing faster than anywhere else in the world
As institutional capital arrives and regulation matures, these are the publicly traded names investors are watching closest.
Digital banking · 127M users across Brazil, Mexico and Colombia
Nubank could be one of the most direct listed proxies for LATAM's fintech and crypto boom. The company integrated cryptocurrency trading directly into its Nu app and partnered with Lightspark to embed the Bitcoin Lightning Network for faster and more cost-effective Bitcoin transactions.
In Q3 2025, revenue jumped 42% year-on-year to $4.17 billion, customer deposits rose 37% to $38.8 billion, and gross profit was up 35% to $1.81 billion.
The stock has returned roughly 36% over the past year and tripled the S&P 500's returns over the last three years. The company dominates Brazil, with over 60% of the adult population using Nubank.
Nu Holdings also recently secured conditional approval to launch Nubank N.A., a US national digital bank.However, the announcement triggered a pullback, with investors cautious about capital deployment timelines and expansion costs.
UBS has lowered its price target to $17.20, citing some market caution despite positive operational shifts.
What to watch
Credit quality trends in Brazil and Mexico.
Pace of USDC adoption via Nubank rewards.
US bank charter timeline and early cost disclosures.
2. MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI)
E-Commerce/Fintech · 18 countries across Latin America
MercadoLibre is not a pure crypto play, but Mercado Pago (its fintech arm) has become one of the most important financial rails in LATAM. The company holds around 570 BTC on its balance sheet as a hedge against regional inflation, and has issued its own US dollar-pegged stablecoin, Meli Dólar.
Full year 2025 net revenue from Mercado Pago reached $12.6 billion, up 46% year-on-year, while total payment volume hit $278 billion, up 41%. Fintech monthly active users have grown close to 30% for ten consecutive quarters, and the credit portfolio nearly doubled to $12.5 billion year-on-year.
The catch for MercadoLibre is profitability. Overall margin compression of 5–6% is attributed to persistent investments in free shipping, credit card expansion, first-party commerce, and cross-border trade.
The stock has declined around 14.5% over the past six months, with the market repricing the stock around what management has framed as a deliberate investment phase heading into 2026.
The longer-term case remains compelling. Mercado Pago has introduced crypto-asset management and insurance products across its core markets, positioning it less as an e-commerce company and more as a full-scale digital bank with crypto infrastructure built in.
What to watch
Mercado Pago loan loss trends and credit portfolio quality.
Stablecoin integration and crypto volume through its payment network.
Whether the Argentina credit card launch can reach profitability.
Fintech/Bitcoin treasury · Brazil's first listed Bitcoin treasury company
Méliuz is the most direct equity expression of the corporate Bitcoin treasury trend in LATAM. In early 2025, Méliuz became the first publicly traded company in Latin America to formally adopt a Bitcoin treasury strategy, receiving shareholder approval to allocate cash reserves toward Bitcoin accumulation.
Rather than issuing cheap dollar-denominated debt to buy BTC, Méliuz uses share issuance and operational cash flow. The company also sells cash-secured put options on Bitcoin to generate yield, a playbook borrowed from Japanese Bitcoin treasury firm Metaplanet, keeping 80% of BTC holdings in cold storage
CASH3 essentially acts as a leveraged vehicle for BTC exposure, capturing upside intensely in bull cycles, but generating greater volatility on the way down, especially where debt is involved.
The stock surged approximately 170% in May 2025 following the announcement of the Bitcoin strategy.However, it has since pulled back to its April 2025 levels, broadly tracking Bitcoin's price action and highlighting the stock's volatility.
Pure-play Bitcoin treasury · LATAM's largest corporate Bitcoin holder
Where Méliuz is a fintech business that also holds Bitcoin, OranjeBTC is the opposite: a company whose entire purpose is Bitcoin accumulation.
The company listed on B3 in October 2025 through a reverse merger with education firm Intergraus, marking Brazil's first public debut of a firm whose business model centres entirely on Bitcoin accumulation.
OranjeBTC currently holds over 3,650 BTC and raised nearly $385 million in Bitcoin, with backing from notable investors including the Winklevoss brothers, Adam Back, FalconX, and Ricardo Salinas.
Its $210 million financing round was led by Itaú BBA, the investment arm of Brazil's largest bank, in a significant vote of institutional confidence.
In 2026, OBTC3 has fallen around 32% year-to-date, making it the hardest-hit of the two Brazilian Bitcoin treasury stocks.The stock hit an all-time high of 29.00 BRL on its listing day (October 7, 2025) and an all-time low of 6.06 BRL in February 2026.
It currently trades around 7.06 BRL, a steep discount to its debut, but one that closely mirrors Bitcoin's own pullback from peak levels.
OranjeBTC is the most volatile name on this list and should be treated as a high-beta Bitcoin vehicle. Liquidity is thinner than established names.
What to watch
Bitcoin per share trajectory.
Any capital raises or new BTC purchases.
Potential international listing ambitions.
How the market-value net asset value (mNAV) discount/premium evolves relative to Bitcoin's price.
5. Hashdex — HASH11 (B3: HASH11)
Crypto Asset Management · Brazil's leading crypto ETF issuer
Hashdex offers a different kind of exposure to crypto. Rather than a single company's balance sheet or business strategy, HASH11 is a diversified basket of crypto assets wrapped in the familiarity of a regulated Brazilian ETF structure.
Brazil hosts 22 ETFs offering full or partial exposure to crypto assets, with Hashdex funds attracting 180,000 investors and daily transaction volumes averaging R$50 million.
Hashdex launched the world's first spot XRP ETF (XRPH11) on Brazil's B3 in April 2025, tracking the Nasdaq XRP Reference Price Index and allocating at least 95% of net assets to XRP.
The company also operates single-asset ETFs for Bitcoin (BITH11), Ethereum (ETHE11) and Solana (SOLH11), alongside its flagship HASH11 multi-asset index fund.
In mid-2025, Hashdex launched a hybrid Bitcoin/Gold ETF (GBTC11) that dynamically adjusts allocations between the two assets.
For investors who want diversified crypto market exposure rather than single-asset risk, HASH11 is the most accessible on-ramp through Brazil's regulated equity infrastructure.
However, as a multi-asset crypto index, HASH11 is still subject to the broad performance of digital asset markets. And unlike the equity names on this list, there is no operating business creating independent value.
What to watch
Crypto market sentiment broadly.
Potential expansion of Hashdex products into the US market.
AUM growth as institutional adoption accelerates in Brazil.
Relative performance of HASH11 vs single-asset alternatives.
Institutional infrastructure is still in early innings — Deutsche Börse's Crypto Finance Group entered LATAM in early 2026, and local exchanges have opened over 200 BRL-denominated trading pairs since 2024. The pace of that buildout will set the tone for all five names.
Regulatory progress in Brazil, Mexico, and Chile is the key enabler for the next wave of capital. Any setbacks would hit the higher-beta names like OBTC3 and CASH3 hardest.
Stablecoin volume is the region's most reliable real-time signal. Despite a global slowdown in early 2025, LATAM still recorded $16.2 billion in trading volume between January and May, up 42% year-on-year. Watch whether that momentum holds — a reacceleration lifts all five; a reversal pressures them equally.
Firmus Technologies is building AI-powered data centre infrastructure in Tasmania, and it may be one of the most strategically positioned tech companies in Australia right now.
Firmus is an Nvidia Cloud Partner and has joined the GPU maker's Lepton marketplace. The company has designed its modular, liquid-everywhere AI Factory platform to evolve with Nvidia's latest architectures, including Nvidia Spectrum-X Ethernet networking.
A September 2025 raise of A$330m closed at a post-money valuation of A$1.85 billion for the company. By November 2025, after a further A$500m raise, that valuation had trebled to approximately A$6 billion.
A subsequent A$100m investment from Maas Group in early 2026 confirmed the November valuation. Firmus is reported to be contemplating an ASX IPO within the next 12 months and, given the A$6 billion private valuation, any public raise is expected to be well above A$1 billion.
With Australia's growing demand for sovereign AI compute capacity and Tasmania's cool climate and renewable energy advantage for large-scale data centre operations, Firmus stands as one of the largest-scale ASX IPO candidates in 2026.
However, although market interest in Firmus appears to be growing, timing is everything when it comes to IPOs. Watch for confirmation of exact IPO timing, AI data centres sentiment, and whether Nvidia signals deepening its involvement as a strategic anchor investor post-listing.
2. Rokt
Sydney-founded Rokt has quietly become one of Australia's most valuable private tech companies. The e-commerce adtech platform aimed at helping brands monetise the “transaction moment” is now valued at ~US$7.9 billion.
A term sheet prepared by MA Financial projected an exit share price of US$72 under base-case scenarios, when shares are freed from escrow in November 2027.
Rokt is expected to potentially dual-list in the US and on the ASX in 2026, possibly as soon as the first half of the year. IG The most widely discussed structure is a primary Nasdaq listing with an ASX CDI (CHESS Depositary Interest) structure for Australian investors, rather than a full dual listing.
Rokt’s revenue for the year ending August 2025 is projected at US$743m (up 48% year-over-year), with EBITDA forecast at US$100m and a gross profit margin of approximately 43%. It is currently projected to cross the $US1 billion annual revenue milestone by August 2026.
Amazon, Live Nation, and Uber are all reported to be Rokt customers, and the company has expanded rapidly across North America and Europe.
Whether Rokt opts for a primary Nasdaq listing with an ASX CDI structure, or a full dual listing, could significantly affect liquidity and local investor access.
3. Greencross
Greencross, the business behind Petbarn, City Farmers, and Greencross Vets, is preparing to relist on the ASX after being taken private by US private equity firm TPG in 2019.
TPG currently owns 55% of Greencross, while AustralianSuper and the Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan (HOOPP) hold the remaining 45%.
The company reported revenue of A$2 billion for the 2025 financial year, a modest increase from A$1.95 billion in 2024. TPG paid A$675 million in equity value for the business in 2019; it sold a 45% stake in 2022 at a valuation of more than A$3.5 billion. The proposed IPO implies a valuation of more than A$4 billion.
TPG is targeting an initial public offering of at least A$700 million. The IPO will mark Greencross's return to the ASX after an eight-year absence. TPG's relatively small raise size suggests the firm is banking on strong aftermarket performance before fully exiting.
TPG's exit timeline announcement is still a watch for whether a 2026 IPO is on the cards. And whether the company pursues a traditional IPO or a trade sale, which remains an alternative path.
4. Morse Micro
Morse Micro is a Sydney-based semiconductor company developing Wi-Fi HaLow chips designed for IoT applications across agriculture, logistics, smart cities, and industrial monitoring.
Morse Micro held a Series C round in September 2025, raising US$88 million, followed in November 2025 by a US$32 million pre-IPO raise, taking total funding to over A$300 million.
It is targeting an ASX listing in the next 12–18 months. The Series C was led by Japanese chip giant MegaChips and the National Reconstruction Fund Corporation.
Global IoT device connections forecast to exceed 30 billion by 2030, and Morse Micro would be a rare ASX-listed pure-play semiconductor company, which could attract significant interest from tech-focused fund managers.
Global IoT market forecast (in billions of connected IoT devices) | IOT Analytics
Morse Micro’s Revenue traction with tier-one hardware partners ahead of listing is a watch, and whether the company seeks a concurrent US listing given the depth of US semiconductor investor appetite.
5. Bison Resources
Bison Resources is a newly incorporated US-focused gold and precious metals explorer currently in the middle of its ASX IPO.
The offer closes on 20 March 2026, with an ASX listing targeted for mid-April 2026. At an indicative market capitalisation of A$13.25 million on full subscription, Bison is the most speculative name on this list by a significant margin.
The company holds four exploration projects in north-east Nevada, within the Carlin Trend (one of the world's most prolific gold-producing belts), responsible for approximately 75% of US gold output.
The IPO seeks to raise A$4.5 to A$5.5 million (22.5 to 27.5 million shares at A$0.20 per share). The team has prior experience at Sun Silver (ASX: SS1) and Black Bear Minerals, giving it a track record in ASX junior mining listings out of Nevada.
Australia's 2026 IPO calendar spans the full risk spectrum. A Nvidia-backed AI infrastructure play, a billion-dollar e-commerce platform, and a junior gold explorer with its IPO already underway.
Each candidate reflects a different stage of maturity and a different investor profile. Together, they suggest the ASX could see a meaningful injection of new listings across sectors that have been largely absent from the local market in recent years.
Volatility doesn't discriminate. But it can punish the unprepared.
Stops getting hit on moves that reverse within minutes. Premiums on short-dated options climbing. And the yen no longer behaving as the reliable hedge it once was.
For traders across Asia, navigating this environment means asking harder questions about risk, timing, and the assumptions baked into strategies built for calmer markets.
1. How do I trade VIX CFDs during a geopolitical shock?
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day implied volatility on the S&P 500. It is often called the “fear gauge.” During geopolitical shocks such as the current Iran escalations, sanctions announcements, and surprise central bank actions, the VIX can spike sharply and quickly.
What makes VIX CFDs different in a shock
VIX itself is not directly tradeable. VIX CFDs are typically priced off VIX futures, which means they carry contango drag in normal conditions.
During a geopolitical shock, several things can happen at once
Spot VIX may spike immediately while near-term futures lag, creating a disconnect.
Spreads on VIX CFDs can widen significantly as liquidity thins.
Margin requirements may change intraday as broker risk models adjust.
VIX tends to mean-revert after spikes, so timing and duration are critical.
What this means for Asian-hours traders
Asian market hours mean many geopolitical events can break while local traders are active or just starting their session.
A shock that hits during Tokyo hours may already be priced into VIX futures before Sydney opens.
Some traders use VIX CFD positions as a short-term hedge against equity portfolios rather than a directional trade. Others trade the reversion (the move back toward historical averages once the initial spike fades). Both approaches carry distinct risks, and neither guarantees a specific outcome.
Volatility Index (VIX) during the 1 March Iran conflict escalation | TradingView
2. Why are my 0DTE options premiums so expensive right now?
Zero days-to-expiry (0DTE) options expire on the same day they are traded. They have become one of the fastest-growing segments of the options market, now representing more than 57% of daily S&P 500 options volume according to Cboe global markets data.
For Asian-based participants accessing US options markets, elevated premiums during volatile periods can feel like mispricing, but usually reflects structural pricing factors.
Why premiums spike
Options pricing is driven by intrinsic value and time value. For 0DTE options, there is almost no time value left, which might suggest they should be cheap but the implied volatility component compensates for that.
When uncertainty increases, sellers may demand greater compensation for the risk of sharp intraday moves.
This can be reflected in
Higher implied volatility inputs.
Wider bid-ask spreads.
Faster adjustments in delta and gamma hedging.
In higher-VIX environments, hedging flows can contribute to short-term feedback loops in the underlying index. This can amplify price swings, particularly around key levels.
What this means for Asian-hours traders
Many 0DTE options contracts see their most active pricing and hedging flows during US trading hours. Entering positions during the Asian session may mean facing stale pricing or wider spreads.
If you are seeing expensive premiums, it may reflect the market accurately pricing the risk of a large same-day move. Whether that premium is worth paying depends on your view of the likely intraday range and your risk tolerance, not on the absolute dollar figure alone.
3. How do I adjust my algorithmic trading bot for a high-VIX environment?
Many algorithmic trading systems are built on parameters calibrated during lower-volatility regimes. When VIX spikes, those parameters can become outdated quickly.
The regime mismatch problem
Most trading algorithms use historical data to set position sizes, stop distances, and entry thresholds. That data reflects the conditions during which the system was tested. If VIX moves from 15 to 35, the statistical assumptions underpinning those settings may no longer hold.
Common failure modes in high-VIX environments include
Stops triggered repeatedly by noise before the intended directional move occurs.
Position sizing based on fixed-dollar risk, which becomes relatively small compared to actual intraday ranges.
Correlation assumptions between assets breaking down.
Slippage on execution that erodes edge.
Approaches some algorithmic traders consider
Rather than running a single fixed set of parameters, some systems incorporate a volatility regime filter. This is a real-time check on VIX or ATR that triggers a switch to different settings when conditions shift.
Approach adjustments that some traders review in high-VIX environments
Widen stop distances proportionally to ATR to reduce noise-driven exits.
Reduce position size to maintain constant dollar risk relative to wider expected ranges.
Add a VIX threshold above which the system pauses or moves to paper trading mode.
Reduce the number of simultaneous positions, as correlations tend to rise during market stress.
No adjustment eliminates risk. Backtesting new parameters on historical high-VIX periods can provide some indication of likely performance, though past conditions are not a reliable guide to future outcomes.
4. Is the Japanese Yen (JPY) still a reliable safe-haven trade?
During periods of global risk aversion, capital has historically flowed into JPY as investors unwind carry trades and seek lower-volatility holdings. However, the reliability of this dynamic has become more conditional.
Why has the yen historically moved as a safe haven?
Japan’s historically low interest rates made JPY the funding currency of choice for carry trades and when risk-off sentiment hits, those trades unwind quickly, creating demand for yen.
Additionally, Japan’s large net foreign asset position means Japanese investors tend to repatriate capital during crises, further supporting JPY.
What has changed
The Bank of Japan’s shift away from ultra-loose monetary policy in recent years has complicated the traditional safe-haven dynamic.
As Japanese interest rates rise:
The scale of carry trade positioning may change.
USD/JPY can become more sensitive to interest rate spreads.
BoJ communication and domestic inflation data may influence JPY independently of global risk appetite.
The yen can still behave as a safe haven, particularly during sharp equity sell-offs. But it may respond more slowly or inconsistently compared to earlier cycles when the policy divergence between Japan and the rest of the world was more extreme.
What to watch
For traders monitoring JPY as a safe-haven signal, BoJ meeting dates, Japanese CPI releases, and real-time US-Japan rate spread data have become more relevant inputs than they were a few years ago.
Japan rates rose into the positive in 2024 after years at -0.1% | Trading Economics
5. How do I avoid ‘whipsawing’ on energy CFDs?
Whipsawing describes the experience of entering a trade in one direction, getting stopped out as the price reverses, then watching the price move back in the original direction.
Energy CFDs, particularly crude oil, are especially prone to this in volatile markets. And for traders in Asia, the combination of thin liquidity during local hours and sensitivity to geopolitical headlines can make this particularly challenging.
Why energy CFDs whipsaw
Crude oil is sensitive to a wide range of headline drivers: OPEC+ production decisions, US inventory data, geopolitical supply disruptions, and currency moves.
In high-volatility environments, the market can react strongly to each headline before reversing when the next one arrives.
Price spikes on a headline, stops are triggered on short positions.
Traders re-enter long, expecting continuation.
A second headline or profit-taking reverses the move.
Long stops are hit. The cycle repeats.
Approaches traders may consider to manage whipsaw risk
Some traders choose to change their risk controls in volatile conditions (for example, reviewing stop placement relative to volatility measures). However these may increase losses; execution and slippage risks can rise sharply in fast markets
Other approaches that some traders review:
Avoid trading crude oil CFDs in the 30 minutes before and after major scheduled data releases.
Use a longer timeframe chart to identify the prevailing trend before entering on a shorter timeframe, reducing the chance of trading against larger institutional flows.
Scale into positions in stages rather than committing full size on initial entry.
Monitor open interest and volume to distinguish between moves with genuine participation and low-liquidity fakeouts.
Whipsawing cannot be eliminated entirely in volatile energy markets. The goal of risk management in these conditions is not to predict which moves will hold, but to ensure that losses on false moves are smaller than gains when a genuine directional move follows.
Practical considerations for volatile Asian markets
Asian markets carry structural characteristics that interact with volatility differently from US or European markets:
Thinner liquidity during local hours can exaggerate moves on thin volume, particularly in energy and FX CFDs.
Events in China, including PMI releases, trade data, and PBOC policy signals, can move regional indices.
BoJ policy decisions have become a more active driver of JPY and Nikkei volatility in recent years.
Overnight gaps from US session moves are a persistent structural risk for traders unable to monitor positions around the clock.
Margin requirements on leveraged products can change at short notice during high-VIX periods.
Frequently asked questions about volatility in Asian markets
What does a high VIX reading mean for Asian equity indices?
VIX measures expected volatility on the S&P 500, but elevated readings typically reflect global risk aversion that flows across markets. Asian indices such as the Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, and ASX 200 can often see increased volatility and negative correlation with sharp VIX spikes.
Can 0DTE options be traded during Asian hours?
Access depends on the platform and the specific instrument. US equity index 0DTE options are most actively priced during US trading hours. Asian traders may face wider spreads and less representative pricing outside those hours.
Are algorithmic trading strategies inherently riskier in high-volatility conditions?
Strategies calibrated during low-volatility periods may perform differently in high-VIX environments. Regular review of parameters against current market conditions is prudent for any systematic approach.
Has the JPY safe-haven trade changed permanently?
The Bank of Japan’s policy normalisation has introduced new dynamics, but JPY has continued to strengthen during some risk-off episodes. It may be more conditional on the nature of the shock and the BoJ’s concurrent posture.
What is the best way to set stops on energy CFDs in high-volatility conditions?
There is no universally best method. Many traders reference ATR to calibrate stop distances to prevailing conditions rather than using fixed levels. This does not guarantee exit at the desired price and does not eliminate whipsaw risk.
Three central banks are deciding rates simultaneously, Brent crude is swinging wildly around US$100 a barrel, and a war in the Middle East is rewriting the inflation outlook in real time. Whatever happens this week could set the tone for markets for the rest of 2026.
Quick facts
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its next cash rate decision on Tuesday, with markets now pricing a 66% chance of a second hike to 4.1%.
Some analysts have warned the Iran war could push US inflation to 3.5% by year-end and delay Fed rate cuts until September, making this week's FOMC dot plot the most closely watched in years.
Brent crude is flirting with US$100 a barrel after Iran launched what state media described as its "most intense operation since the beginning of the war."
RBA: Will Australia hike again?
The RBA raised the cash rate for the first time in two years to 3.85% at its February meeting after inflation picked up materially in the second half of 2025.
The question now is whether it moves again before even seeing the next quarterly CPI print, which isn't due until 29 April.
Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser acknowledged ahead of the meeting that policymakers face a genuinely divided decision, shaped by conflicting economic signals at home and growing instability abroad.
Financial markets currently assign around a 66% probability to another hike, with a May increase considered virtually certain regardless of what happens Monday.
The FOMC meets on March 17–18, with the policy statement scheduled for 2:00 pm ET on March 18 and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 pm. CME FedWatch shows a 99% probability that the Fed holds rates at 3.50% to 3.75%.
The real action is in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and dot plot. The current median dot shows one 25-basis-point cut for 2026. If it shifts to two cuts, that is dovish and bullish for risk assets. If it shifts to zero cuts or adds a rate hike into the projection, markets could react in the other direction.
Further complicating matters, Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair expires on May 23, 2026. Kevin Warsh is the leading candidate to replace him, viewed as more hawkish on monetary policy. Any comment from Powell on this transition could move markets independently of the rate decision itself.
Bank of Japan: Further tightening could be brought forward
The BOJ meets on March 18–19, with the decision expected Thursday morning Tokyo time. The current policy rate sits at 0.75% (a 30-year high), and the January 2026 meeting produced a hold in an 8-1 vote.
Governor Ueda has categorised the March meeting as "live," noting the timeline for further tightening could be "brought forward" if Shunto spring wage negotiations yield stronger-than-expected results.
Those results are due to begin flowing in during the week, making them the critical input for the BOJ's decision. Nomura expects 2026 Shunto wage hikes to come in around 5.0%, including seniority, with base pay growth of approximately 3.4%. If results confirm that trajectory, the case for a March hike strengthens considerably.
The complication is the global backdrop. Japan imports roughly 90% of its energy needs, and oil around US$100 per barrel is pushing up import costs and threatening to add inflationary pressure. A BOJ hike into a global oil shock would be an unusually bold move.
Most market participants still lean toward a hold at this meeting, with April or July seen as the more likely timing for the next move.
Brent crude briefly touched US$119.50 per barrel earlier in the week before dropping 17% to below US$80, then rebounding toward US$95 on mixed signals from Washington about the Strait of Hormuz.
As of Thursday, Brent was back over US$100 as Iran launched fresh attacks on commercial shipping and the IEA reserve release failed to bring meaningful relief.
In the scenario where a longer conflict inflicts damage to energy infrastructure, analysts estimate CPI could rise to 3.5% by the end of 2026, with gasoline prices approaching US$5 per gallon in the second quarter.
For this week, oil acts as a macro meta-variable. Every geopolitical headline, ceasefire signal, tanker attack, reserve release, and Trump comment could move equities, bonds and currencies in real time.
US-Israeli strikes on Iran launched on 28 February sent Brent crude surging past US$119 a barrel, gold above US$5,200, and defence stocks to all-time highs.
Against that backdrop, investors are focusing on a small group of commodity-linked names that may remain sensitive to further moves in oil, LNG and gold. The key question is whether the shock proves sustained, or whether a ceasefire, shipping normalisation, or policy action removes part of the geopolitical risk premium.
1. ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM)
ExxonMobil has been one of the clearest beneficiaries of the price surge. Shares hit a record high of US$159.60 in early March and are up approximately 28% year-to-date.
The company produces 4.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, has a Permian Basin breakeven of around US$35/barrel, and is committed to US$20 billion in buybacks for 2026.
Wells Fargo raised its price target to US$183 from US$156 following the escalation, while broader analyst consensus sits around US$140–$144. However, XOM is already trading above many consensus targets, and disruption to its LNG partner QatarEnergy poses a near-term operational headwind.
Chevron touched a new 52-week high of US$196.76 in early March and has risen approximately 24% year-to-date.
The company's Brent breakeven for dividends and capital expenditure sits around US$50/barrel. This means that at current Oil prices above US$90, it is generating significant free cash flow.
However, Chevron has temporarily halted operations at a gas field off Israel's coast following missile activity in the region, and the stock has since pulled back more than 1% as the conflict directly affects its operations.
What to watch
Direct operational updates from Chevron's Middle East and Israeli assets.
Any further halts that could weigh on near-term production.
With Qatar having halted output after Iranian drone strikes, buyers across Asia and Europe are scrambling for alternative supply. Woodside, as one of Australia's largest LNG producers and exporters, sits outside the conflict zone and is well-positioned to benefit from rerouted demand.
Analysts caution that actual substitution takes time due to shipping and contract constraints, meaning the price uplift may be more durable than a simple spot trade. European TTF benchmark gas prices surged over 50% in a week, amplifying the margin environment for non-Middle Eastern LNG producers.
What to watch
The pace and timeline of any Qatar LNG production restart.
If QatarEnergy remains offline for weeks, Woodside could begin re-contracting European buyers at elevated spot prices.
An Australian dollar move higher could be a headwind worth tracking for USD-denominated earnings.
4. Cheniere Energy (NYSE: LNG)
Alongside Woodside, Cheniere is the most direct US beneficiary of the Qatar LNG disruption. As the largest LNG exporter in the United States, it saw intraday strength at the start of the conflict week.
US domestic energy production has buffered American consumers from the worst of the shock, but the export premium has widened as European and Asian buyers pay up for non-Gulf supply.
The trade is "geopolitically sensitive," and any resolution could reverse upside quickly. But for as long as Hormuz and Gulf gas infrastructure remain compromised, Cheniere is positioned to benefit structurally.
What to watch
Any diplomatic breakthrough that reopens Gulf shipping lanes.
Announcements of new long-term offtake contracts signed at current elevated prices.
Gold surged 5.2% in a single session on 1 March, touching US$5,246/oz, as markets sought safe-haven assets. Newmont, the world's largest gold producer, has seen its reserves effectively revalued at these prices.
It is up alongside gold's 24% year-to-date gain, and its all-in sustaining costs remain largely fixed.
However, Gold miners sold off sharply on 4 March, and Newmont fell nearly 8% in a single session as broader risk-off deleveraging hit precious metals equities.
The stock has recovered since, but volatility remains high. For longer-duration investors, analysts note that "safe" mining jurisdictions such as Canada, Australia, and Nevada are commanding fresh premiums as Middle East instability raises the value of geopolitically secure supply.
What to watch
Whether gold can hold above US$5,000/oz.
A prolonged conflict could accelerate an M&A cycle in junior gold miners.
A ceasefire or broad equity deleveraging event as the primary risk to monitor.
Lockheed Martin reached a new all-time high of US$676.70 on 3 March, up over 4% for the day. Its F-35 fighters, precision-guided munitions, THAAD systems, and HIMARS rocket artillery are central to the ongoing air campaign.
The US Department of Defence is moving to replenish munitions stockpiles, and Trump's stated ambition to raise the US defence budget to US$1.5 trillion by 2027 adds a longer-term structural tailwind beyond the immediate conflict.
Defence stocks are rising amid classic geopolitical risk pricing, but investors should note that actual contract flow takes time to translate into earnings, and valuations already reflect considerable optimism.
What to watch
The pace of US Department of Defence munitions replenishment orders.
How quickly contract wins translate into backlog growth.
Barrick is tracking gold's historic run alongside Newmont, with the stock up sharply year-to-date. It sits at a roughly US$78 billion market capitalisation and is reporting record free cash flow projections as its all-in sustaining costs remain well below current spot prices.
Like Newmont, it experienced a sharp single-session selloff of more than 8% during the broader 4 March deleveraging event, before partially recovering.
Royalty and streaming companies such as Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) are being favoured by some investors as a more inflation-protected way to access gold upside, given their lower operational cost exposure. But Barrick remains one of the world’s largest listed gold miners, with earnings that are highly sensitive to changes in the gold price
What to watch
Gold's ability to hold above US$5,000/oz.
Any Barrick moves toward junior miner acquisitions.
Energy cost inflation, as rising fuel prices could begin to squeeze miner operating margins.
Latin America recorded $730 billion in crypto volume in 2025. Across the region, 57.7 million people now own some form of digital currency rankingslatam, a base that is growing faster than anywhere else in the world
As institutional capital arrives and regulation matures, these are the publicly traded names investors are watching closest.
Digital banking · 127M users across Brazil, Mexico and Colombia
Nubank could be one of the most direct listed proxies for LATAM's fintech and crypto boom. The company integrated cryptocurrency trading directly into its Nu app and partnered with Lightspark to embed the Bitcoin Lightning Network for faster and more cost-effective Bitcoin transactions.
In Q3 2025, revenue jumped 42% year-on-year to $4.17 billion, customer deposits rose 37% to $38.8 billion, and gross profit was up 35% to $1.81 billion.
The stock has returned roughly 36% over the past year and tripled the S&P 500's returns over the last three years. The company dominates Brazil, with over 60% of the adult population using Nubank.
Nu Holdings also recently secured conditional approval to launch Nubank N.A., a US national digital bank.However, the announcement triggered a pullback, with investors cautious about capital deployment timelines and expansion costs.
UBS has lowered its price target to $17.20, citing some market caution despite positive operational shifts.
What to watch
Credit quality trends in Brazil and Mexico.
Pace of USDC adoption via Nubank rewards.
US bank charter timeline and early cost disclosures.
2. MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI)
E-Commerce/Fintech · 18 countries across Latin America
MercadoLibre is not a pure crypto play, but Mercado Pago (its fintech arm) has become one of the most important financial rails in LATAM. The company holds around 570 BTC on its balance sheet as a hedge against regional inflation, and has issued its own US dollar-pegged stablecoin, Meli Dólar.
Full year 2025 net revenue from Mercado Pago reached $12.6 billion, up 46% year-on-year, while total payment volume hit $278 billion, up 41%. Fintech monthly active users have grown close to 30% for ten consecutive quarters, and the credit portfolio nearly doubled to $12.5 billion year-on-year.
The catch for MercadoLibre is profitability. Overall margin compression of 5–6% is attributed to persistent investments in free shipping, credit card expansion, first-party commerce, and cross-border trade.
The stock has declined around 14.5% over the past six months, with the market repricing the stock around what management has framed as a deliberate investment phase heading into 2026.
The longer-term case remains compelling. Mercado Pago has introduced crypto-asset management and insurance products across its core markets, positioning it less as an e-commerce company and more as a full-scale digital bank with crypto infrastructure built in.
What to watch
Mercado Pago loan loss trends and credit portfolio quality.
Stablecoin integration and crypto volume through its payment network.
Whether the Argentina credit card launch can reach profitability.
Fintech/Bitcoin treasury · Brazil's first listed Bitcoin treasury company
Méliuz is the most direct equity expression of the corporate Bitcoin treasury trend in LATAM. In early 2025, Méliuz became the first publicly traded company in Latin America to formally adopt a Bitcoin treasury strategy, receiving shareholder approval to allocate cash reserves toward Bitcoin accumulation.
Rather than issuing cheap dollar-denominated debt to buy BTC, Méliuz uses share issuance and operational cash flow. The company also sells cash-secured put options on Bitcoin to generate yield, a playbook borrowed from Japanese Bitcoin treasury firm Metaplanet, keeping 80% of BTC holdings in cold storage
CASH3 essentially acts as a leveraged vehicle for BTC exposure, capturing upside intensely in bull cycles, but generating greater volatility on the way down, especially where debt is involved.
The stock surged approximately 170% in May 2025 following the announcement of the Bitcoin strategy.However, it has since pulled back to its April 2025 levels, broadly tracking Bitcoin's price action and highlighting the stock's volatility.
Pure-play Bitcoin treasury · LATAM's largest corporate Bitcoin holder
Where Méliuz is a fintech business that also holds Bitcoin, OranjeBTC is the opposite: a company whose entire purpose is Bitcoin accumulation.
The company listed on B3 in October 2025 through a reverse merger with education firm Intergraus, marking Brazil's first public debut of a firm whose business model centres entirely on Bitcoin accumulation.
OranjeBTC currently holds over 3,650 BTC and raised nearly $385 million in Bitcoin, with backing from notable investors including the Winklevoss brothers, Adam Back, FalconX, and Ricardo Salinas.
Its $210 million financing round was led by Itaú BBA, the investment arm of Brazil's largest bank, in a significant vote of institutional confidence.
In 2026, OBTC3 has fallen around 32% year-to-date, making it the hardest-hit of the two Brazilian Bitcoin treasury stocks.The stock hit an all-time high of 29.00 BRL on its listing day (October 7, 2025) and an all-time low of 6.06 BRL in February 2026.
It currently trades around 7.06 BRL, a steep discount to its debut, but one that closely mirrors Bitcoin's own pullback from peak levels.
OranjeBTC is the most volatile name on this list and should be treated as a high-beta Bitcoin vehicle. Liquidity is thinner than established names.
What to watch
Bitcoin per share trajectory.
Any capital raises or new BTC purchases.
Potential international listing ambitions.
How the market-value net asset value (mNAV) discount/premium evolves relative to Bitcoin's price.
5. Hashdex — HASH11 (B3: HASH11)
Crypto Asset Management · Brazil's leading crypto ETF issuer
Hashdex offers a different kind of exposure to crypto. Rather than a single company's balance sheet or business strategy, HASH11 is a diversified basket of crypto assets wrapped in the familiarity of a regulated Brazilian ETF structure.
Brazil hosts 22 ETFs offering full or partial exposure to crypto assets, with Hashdex funds attracting 180,000 investors and daily transaction volumes averaging R$50 million.
Hashdex launched the world's first spot XRP ETF (XRPH11) on Brazil's B3 in April 2025, tracking the Nasdaq XRP Reference Price Index and allocating at least 95% of net assets to XRP.
The company also operates single-asset ETFs for Bitcoin (BITH11), Ethereum (ETHE11) and Solana (SOLH11), alongside its flagship HASH11 multi-asset index fund.
In mid-2025, Hashdex launched a hybrid Bitcoin/Gold ETF (GBTC11) that dynamically adjusts allocations between the two assets.
For investors who want diversified crypto market exposure rather than single-asset risk, HASH11 is the most accessible on-ramp through Brazil's regulated equity infrastructure.
However, as a multi-asset crypto index, HASH11 is still subject to the broad performance of digital asset markets. And unlike the equity names on this list, there is no operating business creating independent value.
What to watch
Crypto market sentiment broadly.
Potential expansion of Hashdex products into the US market.
AUM growth as institutional adoption accelerates in Brazil.
Relative performance of HASH11 vs single-asset alternatives.
Institutional infrastructure is still in early innings — Deutsche Börse's Crypto Finance Group entered LATAM in early 2026, and local exchanges have opened over 200 BRL-denominated trading pairs since 2024. The pace of that buildout will set the tone for all five names.
Regulatory progress in Brazil, Mexico, and Chile is the key enabler for the next wave of capital. Any setbacks would hit the higher-beta names like OBTC3 and CASH3 hardest.
Stablecoin volume is the region's most reliable real-time signal. Despite a global slowdown in early 2025, LATAM still recorded $16.2 billion in trading volume between January and May, up 42% year-on-year. Watch whether that momentum holds — a reacceleration lifts all five; a reversal pressures them equally.
