2026 is not giving investors much breathing room. It seems markets may have largely moved past the idea that rate cuts are just around the corner and into a year where inflation may prove harder to control than many expected.

Goods inflation has picked up, while services inflation remains relatively sticky due to ongoing labour cost pressures. Housing costs, particularly rents, also remain a key source of inflation pressure. 

The RBA is trying to stay credible on inflation without pushing the economy too far the other way.

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Key data

CPI is still around 3.8 per cent (above target), wages are still rising at about 0.8 per cent over the quarter, and unemployment is around 4.1 per cent.

Based on market-implied pricing, rate hikes are not expected soon, so the way the RBA explains its decision can matter almost as much as the decision itself. If the tone shifts expectations, those expectations can move markets.

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What this playbook covers

This is a playbook for RBA-heavy weeks in 2026. It covers what to watch across sectors, lists the key triggers, and explains which indicators may shift sentiment.

1. Banks and financials: how RBA decisions flow through to lending and borrowers

Banks are where the RBA shows up fastest in the Australian economy. Rates can hit borrowers quickly and feed into funding costs and sentiment.

In tighter phases, margins can improve at first, but that can flip if funding costs rise faster, or if credit quality starts to weaken. The balance between those forces is what matters most.

If banks rally into an RBA decision week, it may mean the market thinks higher for longer supports earnings. If they sell off, it may mean the market thinks higher for longer hurts borrowers. You can get two different readings from the same headline.

What to watch

• The yield curve shape: A steeper curve can help margins, while an inverted curve can signal growth stress.
• Deposit competition: It can quietly squeeze margins even when headline rates look supportive.
• RBA wording on financial stability, household buffers, and resilience. Small phrases can shift the risk story.

Potential trigger

If the RBA sounds more hawkish than expected, banks may react early as markets reassess growth and credit risk expectations. The first move can sometimes set the tone for the session.

Key risks

• Funding costs rising faster than loan yields: May point to margin pressure.
• Clear tightening in credit conditions: Rising arrears or refinancing stress can change the narrative quickly.
  
  

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2. Consumer discretionary and retail: where higher rates hit household spending

When policy is tight, consumer discretionary becomes a live test of household resilience. This is where higher everyday costs often show up fastest.

Big calls about the consumer can look obvious until the data stops backing them up. When that happens, the narrative can shift quickly.

What to watch

• Wages versus inflation: The real income push or drag.
• Early labour signals: Hours worked can soften before unemployment rises.
• Reporting season clues: Discounting, cost pass-through, and margin pressure can indicate how stretched demand really is.

Potential trigger

If the tone from the RBA  is more hawkish than expected, the sector may be sensitive to rate expectations. Any initial move may not persist, and subsequent price action can depend on incoming data and positioning

Key risks

• A fast turn in the labour market.
• New cost-of-living shocks, especially energy or housing, that hit spending quickly.

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3. Resources: what to watch when tariffs, geopolitics, and policy shift

Resources can act as a read on global growth, but currency moves and central bank tone can change how that story lands in Australia.

In 2026, tariffs and geopolitics could also create sharper headline moves than usual, so gap risk can sit on top of the normal cycle.

The RBA still matters through two channels: the Australian dollar and overall risk appetite. Both can reprice the sector quickly, even when commodity prices have not moved much.

What to watch

• The global growth pulse: Industrial demand expectations and China-linked signals.
• The Australian dollar: The post-decision move can become a second driver for the sector.
• Sector leadership: How resources trade versus the broader market can signal the current regime.

Potential trigger

If the RBA tone turns more restrictive while global growth stays stable, resources may hold up better than other parts of the market. Strong cash flows can matter more, and the real asset angle can attract buyers.

Key risks

• In a real stress event, correlations can jump, and defensive positioning can fail.
• If policy tightens into a growth scare, the cycle can take over, and the sector can fade quickly.

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4. Defensives, staples, and quality healthcare

Defensives are meant to be the calmer corner of the market when everything else feels messy. In 2026, they still have one big weakness: discount rates.

Quality defensives can draw inflows when growth looks shaky, but some defensive growth stocks still trade like long-duration assets. They can be hit when yields rise, even if the business looks solid. That means earnings may be steady while valuations still move around.

What to watch

• Relative strength: How defensives perform during RBA weeks versus the broader market.
• Guidance language: Comments on cost pressure, pricing power, and whether volumes are holding up.
• Yield behaviour: Rising yields can overpower the quality bid and push multiples down.

Potential trigger

If the RBA sounds hawkish and cyclicals start to wobble, defensives can attract relative inflows, but that can depend on yields staying contained. If yields rise sharply, long-duration defensives can still de-rate.

Key risks

• Cost inflation that squeezes margins and weakens the defensive story.

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5. Hard assets, gold, and gold equities

In 2026, hard assets may be less about the simple inflation-hedge story and more about tail risk and policy uncertainty.

When confidence weakens, hard assets often receive more attention. They are not driven by one factor, and gold can still fall if the main drivers run against it.

What to watch

• Real yield direction: Shapes the opportunity cost of holding gold.
• US dollar direction: A major pricing channel for gold.
• Gold equities versus spot gold: Miners add operating leverage, and they also add cost risk.

Potential trigger

If the market starts to question inflation control or policy credibility, the hard-asset narrative can strengthen. If the RBA stays restrictive while disinflation continues, gold can lose urgency, and money can rotate into other trades.

Key risks

• Real yields rising significantly, which can pressure gold.
• Crowding and positioning unwinds that can cause sharp pullbacks.
  
  

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6. Market plumbing, FX, rates volatility, and dispersion

In some RBA weeks, the first move shows up in rates and the Australian dollar, and equities follow later through sector rotation rather than a clean index move.

When guidance shifts, the RBA can change how markets move together. You can end up with a flat index while sectors swing hard in opposite directions.

What to watch

• Front-end rates: Repricing speed right after the decision can reveal the real surprise.
• AUD reaction: Direction and follow-through often shape the next move in equities and resources.
• Implied versus realised volatility: Can show whether the market paid too much or too little for the event.
• Options skew: Can reflect demand for downside protection versus upside chasing.
• Early tape behaviour: The first 5 to 15 minutes can be messy and can mean-revert.

Potential trigger

If the decision is expected but the statement leans hawkish, the front end may reprice first, and the AUD can move with it. Realised volatility can still jump even if the index barely moves, as the market rewrites the path and rotates positions under the surface.

Key risks

• A true surprise that overwhelms what options implied and creates gap moves.
• Competing macro headlines that dominate the tape and drown out the RBA signal.
• Thin liquidity that creates false signals, whipsaw, and worse execution than models assume.

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7. Theme baskets

Theme baskets may let traders express a macro regime while reducing single-name risk. They also introduce their own risks, especially around events.

What to watch

• What the basket holds: Methodology, rebalance rules, hidden concentration.
• Liquidity and spreads: Especially around event windows.
• Tracking versus the narrative: Whether the “theme” behaves like the macro driver.

Potential trigger

If RBA language reinforces a “restrictive and uncertain” regime, theme baskets tied to value, quality, or hard assets may attract attention, particularly if broad indices get choppy.

Key risks

• Theme reversal when macro expectations shift.
• Liquidity risk around event windows, where spreads can widen materially.
  
  

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The point of this playbook is not to predict the exact headline; it is to know where the second-order effects usually land, and to have a short checklist ready before the decision hits.

Keeping these triggers and risks in view may help some traders structure their monitoring around RBA decisions throughout 2026.

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FAQs

Why does “tone” matter so much in 2026?

Because markets often pre-price the decision. The incremental information is guidance on whether the RBA sounds comfortable, concerned, or open to moving again.

What are the fastest tells right after a decision?

Some traders look to front-end rates, the AUD, and sector leadership as early indicators, but these signals can be noisy and influenced by positioning and liquidity.

Why are REITs called duration trades?

Because a large part of their valuation can be sensitive to discount rates and funding costs. When yields move, valuations can reprice quickly.

Are defensives always safer around the RBA?

Not always. If yields jump, long-duration defensives can still be repriced lower even with stable earnings.

Why do hard assets keep showing up in 2026 narratives?

Because they can act as a hedge when trust in policy credibility wobbles, but they also carry crowding and real-yield risks.

Markets head into the week beginning 16 February with a heavy mix of economic data and ongoing earnings momentum, which will feed into the broader growth picture. 

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• Flash PMIs (Friday): US, Eurozone, UK and Japan business surveys provide an early read on February growth momentum.
• AI beyond tech: Commentary has increasingly focused on how AI could affect business models across industries, although sector moves can reflect multiple drivers.
• Equity rotation: Recent tech performance has been mixed, and broader participation looks less consistent than a confirmed rotation.
• Earnings: With most US mega caps reported, retail and consumer names are in focus this week, and the Australian reporting season remains busy.
• Bitcoin (BTC): Pulled back after an attempted rebound and remains highly sensitive to shifts in sentiment.

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Flash PMIs

Friday’s flash PMI readings across major economies could provide a timely read on business conditions and demand trends.

If services remain resilient while manufacturing stays soft, markets may interpret this as steady but uneven growth. If both weaken, growth concerns could return more quickly.

Earlier in the week, Japan GDP, UK labour data, UK CPI, Australian employment, and US trade data helped set the tone before Friday’s flash PMI releases from multiple countries.

Key dates

• Flash PMIs (US, Eurozone and UK): Friday, 20 February

Monitor

• Currency volatility around PMI releases.
• Bond yield reactions to growth surprises or disappointment.
• Sector and commodity performance shifts that may be tied to changing demand expectations.

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AI disruption

Some market commentary has highlighted potential longer-term competitive implications of AI across a range of industries, although company and sector performance can still be driven by macro conditions, rates and earnings expectations.

• Financials: Some discussion has focused on whether AI tools could alter parts of wealth management and advice delivery over time, though share-price moves can reflect multiple influences.
• Logistics and freight: Some market discussion has centred on whether greater automation could affect costs and pricing dynamics over time, alongside other cyclical drivers.
• Software: Reactions remain mixed, with some companies benefiting from AI integration while others face questions about differentiation and pricing power.

This shift means the AI theme could increasingly express itself through relative performance and dispersion, rather than a broad “risk-on” bid.

Monitor

• Earnings guidance that references automation, AI investment, or AI-related competitive pressure.
• Increased dispersion between sectors and within sectors.
• Larger reactions to forward-looking commentary rather than headline beats or misses.

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Equity rotation

The rebound in technology shares seen earlier last week has lost momentum. Rather than clear risk-off conditions, the market is showing mixed participation. 

Financials, industrials and defensive sectors have attracted flows at times, but not consistently enough to confirm a durable rotation.

Participation remains uneven, and evidence of a more consistent pattern of money flow is still limited at this stage.

Monitor

• Sustained relative strength in non-tech sectors.
• Yield movements and their influence on growth-sensitive equities
• Broader sector participation versus narrow tech leadership

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Earnings focus

As the US earnings season moves towards its backend, attention turns toward retail names this week. 

Retail results can provide signals about consumer strength, discretionary spending trends and margin resilience, particularly amid mixed perceptions about the state of the economy.

In Australia, reporting season continues, supporting stock-specific volatility across the ASX.

Monitor

• Retail margin commentary and discounting trends
• Consumer demand outlook statements and guidance tone
• Large single-stock moves even when index direction is muted

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Bitcoin sentiment-sensitive

Bitcoin has traded lower over recent sessions and remains highly volatile. A move back toward the 5 February low is possible, but prices can change quickly in either direction. 

Some market participants view Bitcoin as one indicator of speculative sentiment, although any broader “risk appetite” read-through is uncertain and can be influenced by multiple drivers across crypto markets.

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Key economic events

Big global events like the Olympics can pull attention away from markets, shift participation, and thin out volume in pockets. 

When that happens, liquidity can appear lighter, spreads can be less consistent, and short-term price action can become noisier, even if broader index-level volatility does not change materially.

So instead of asking “Do the Olympics create volatility?”, a more practical lens is to ask “What volatility events could show up during the Games?”

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Quick facts

• Evidence is generally weak that the Olympics themselves are a consistent, direct driver of market volatility.
• Volatility spikes that occur during Olympic windows have often coincided with bigger forces already in motion, including macro stress, policy surprises, and geopolitics.
• The more repeatable Olympics-linked impact tends to be around execution conditions, not a new fundamental market regime.

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Olympic “volatility bingo”, how it works

Think of it as a checklist of common volatility triggers that can land while the world is watching.

Some “volatility bingo” squares are timeless, like central banks and geopolitics. Others are more modern, such as cyber disruption risk, climate activism, and social flashpoints surrounding host-city logistics.

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Macro and policy

Central bank shock

When policy expectations shift, markets can move regardless of the calendar.

London 2012 is a reminder that the story was not sport. It was the Eurozone. In late July 2012, ECB President Mario Draghi delivered his “whatever it takes” remarks in London, at a time when sovereign stress was a dominant volatility theme.

Macro stress already underway

Beijing 2008 took place in a year defined by the global financial crisis, with volatility tied to credit stress and repricing risk appetite, not to the event itself. The Games ran from 8 August 2008 to 24 August 2008.

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Geopolitics and security

Regional conflict timing

During Beijing 2008, the Russia-Georgia conflict escalated in early August 2008, overlapping with the Olympic period. The market lesson is that geopolitical repricing does not pause for major broadcasts.

“After the closing ceremony” risk

Beijing 2022 ended on 20 February 2022. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began on 24 February 2022, only days later.

This is a classic “bingo square” because it reinforces the same principle. A geopolitical escalation can land near a global event window without necessarily being caused by it.

Security incident headline shock

The Olympics have also been directly impacted by security events, even if those events are not “market drivers” on their own.

Two historic examples that shaped the broader security backdrop around major events are:

• The Munich massacre during the 1972 Summer Games.
• The 1996 Atlanta Olympics bombing in Centennial Olympic Park.

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Modern host-city climate

Environmental and anti-Olympics protests

Host city activism is not new, but the themes have become more climate and infrastructure-focused.

Paris 2024 saw organised protests and “counter-opening” events. Reporting around Paris also referenced environmental protest attempts by climate groups.

The current 2026 Winter Olympics opened amid anti-Olympics protests in Milan, with reporting that included alleged railway sabotage and demonstrations focused in part on the environmental impacts of Olympic infrastructure.

These types of headlines can matter for markets indirectly, through risk sentiment, transport disruption, policy response, and broader “instability” framing.

Cyber disruption risk

The cyber “bingo square” has become more prominent in modern Games.

France’s national cybersecurity agency ANSSI reported 548 cybersecurity events affecting Olympics-related entities that were reported to ANSSI between 8 May 2024 and 8 September 2024.

Even when events are contained, cyber incidents can still add noise to headlines and confidence.

Logistics and “can the event run” controversy

Sometimes the volatility link is not the Games, but the controversy around delivery.

Paris 2024 had high-profile scrutiny around the Seine and event readiness, alongside significant public spending to clean the river and ongoing debate about water quality risks.

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Health and disruption narratives

Public health concerns

Rio 2016 is a reminder that health risk narratives can become part of the Olympic backdrop, even when the market impact is indirect.

Zika concerns were widely discussed ahead of the Games, including debate about global transmission risk and travel-related spread.

The “postponement era” memory

Tokyo 2020 was postponed to 2021 due to COVID-19, which underlined that global shock events can dominate everything else, including major sporting calendars.

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Practical takeaways for traders

The most repeatable Olympics-era shift is often not “more volatility”, but different execution conditions.

During major global events, some traders choose to watch spreads and depth for signs of thinning liquidity, trade less when conditions look choppy, and stay aware that geopolitical, cyber, and protest headlines can hit at any time.

In global markets of enormous scale, sport is usually not the catalyst. The bingo squares are.