Three central banks are deciding rates simultaneously, Brent crude is swinging wildly around US$100 a barrel, and a war in the Middle East is rewriting the inflation outlook in real time. Whatever happens this week could set the tone for markets for the rest of 2026.

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Quick facts

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its next cash rate decision on Tuesday, with markets now pricing a 66% chance of a second hike to 4.1%.
• Some analysts have warned the Iran war could push US inflation to 3.5% by year-end and delay Fed rate cuts until September, making this week's FOMC dot plot the most closely watched in years.
• Brent crude is flirting with US$100 a barrel after Iran launched what state media described as its "most intense operation since the beginning of the war."

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RBA: Will Australia hike again?

The RBA raised the cash rate for the first time in two years to 3.85% at its February meeting after inflation picked up materially in the second half of 2025. 

The question now is whether it moves again before even seeing the next quarterly CPI print, which isn't due until 29 April.

Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser acknowledged ahead of the meeting that policymakers face a genuinely divided decision, shaped by conflicting economic signals at home and growing instability abroad. 

Financial markets currently assign around a 66% probability to another hike, with a May increase considered virtually certain regardless of what happens Monday.

Key dates

• RBA Cash Rate Decision: Tuesday 17 March, 2:30 pm AEDT
• Governor Bullock press conference: Tuesday 17 March, 3:30 pm AEDT

Monitor

• Any reference from Bullock to further hikes being likely in May
• AUD/USD immediate reaction.
• ASX banks and REITs.

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FOMC: Hold likely, all eyes on the dot plot

The FOMC meets on March 17–18, with the policy statement scheduled for 2:00 pm ET on March 18 and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 pm. CME FedWatch shows a 99% probability that the Fed holds rates at 3.50% to 3.75%. 

The real action is in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and dot plot. The current median dot shows one 25-basis-point cut for 2026. If it shifts to two cuts, that is dovish and bullish for risk assets. If it shifts to zero cuts or adds a rate hike into the projection, markets could react in the other direction.

Further complicating matters, Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair expires on May 23, 2026. Kevin Warsh is the leading candidate to replace him, viewed as more hawkish on monetary policy. Any comment from Powell on this transition could move markets independently of the rate decision itself.

Key Date

• FOMC Rate Decision + SEP/Dot Plot: Thursday 19 March, 4:00 am AEDT
• Powell press conference: Thursday 19 March, 4:30 am AEDT

Monitor

• Powell's language on oil and tariff inflation.
• 2-year Treasury yield reaction.
• CME FedWatch repricing for any shift in the September cut probability.

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Bank of Japan: Further tightening could be brought forward

The BOJ meets on March 18–19, with the decision expected Thursday morning Tokyo time. The current policy rate sits at 0.75% (a 30-year high), and the January 2026 meeting produced a hold in an 8-1 vote.

Governor Ueda has categorised the March meeting as "live," noting the timeline for further tightening could be "brought forward" if Shunto spring wage negotiations yield stronger-than-expected results. 

Those results are due to begin flowing in during the week, making them the critical input for the BOJ's decision. Nomura expects 2026 Shunto wage hikes to come in around 5.0%, including seniority, with base pay growth of approximately 3.4%. If results confirm that trajectory, the case for a March hike strengthens considerably.

The complication is the global backdrop. Japan imports roughly 90% of its energy needs, and oil around US$100 per barrel is pushing up import costs and threatening to add inflationary pressure. A BOJ hike into a global oil shock would be an unusually bold move. 

Most market participants still lean toward a hold at this meeting, with April or July seen as the more likely timing for the next move.

Key Date

• BOJ Policy Rate Decision (currently 0.75%): Thursday 19 March, morning AEDT

Monitor

• Shunto wage results as the primary trigger for a March hike.
• Ueda press conference language and forward guidance on April and July.
• USD/JPY reaction.

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Oil: Continued volatility

Brent crude briefly touched US$119.50 per barrel earlier in the week before dropping 17% to below US$80, then rebounding toward US$95 on mixed signals from Washington about the Strait of Hormuz. 

As of Thursday, Brent was back over US$100 as Iran launched fresh attacks on commercial shipping and the IEA reserve release failed to bring meaningful relief.

In the scenario where a longer conflict inflicts damage to energy infrastructure, analysts estimate CPI could rise to 3.5% by the end of 2026, with gasoline prices approaching US$5 per gallon in the second quarter.

For this week, oil acts as a macro meta-variable. Every geopolitical headline, ceasefire signal, tanker attack, reserve release, and Trump comment could move equities, bonds and currencies in real time.

Monitor

• Any resumed Strait of Hormuz tanker flow.
• IEA emergency reserve release.
• Trump statements on Iran.
• Energy sector equities.

7 global commodity stocks to watch as the Iran war reshapes markets

US-Israeli strikes on Iran launched on 28 February sent Brent crude surging past US$119 a barrel, gold above US$5,200, and defence stocks to all-time highs.

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Against that backdrop, investors are focusing on a small group of commodity-linked names that may remain sensitive to further moves in oil, LNG and gold. The key question is whether the shock proves sustained, or whether a ceasefire, shipping normalisation, or policy action removes part of the geopolitical risk premium.

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1. ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM)

ExxonMobil has been one of the clearest beneficiaries of the price surge. Shares hit a record high of US$159.60 in early March and are up approximately 28% year-to-date. 

The company produces 4.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, has a Permian Basin breakeven of around US$35/barrel, and is committed to US$20 billion in buybacks for 2026.

Wells Fargo raised its price target to US$183 from US$156 following the escalation, while broader analyst consensus sits around US$140–$144. However, XOM is already trading above many consensus targets, and disruption to its LNG partner QatarEnergy poses a near-term operational headwind.

What to watch

• Whether Hormuz disruptions persist beyond 4–6 weeks.
• A G7 emergency stockpile release or a credible ceasefire could compress the war risk premium.
• Any adjustments to analyst consensus targets.

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What rising oil prices mean for Exxon

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2. Chevron (NYSE: CVX)

Chevron touched a new 52-week high of US$196.76 in early March and has risen approximately 24% year-to-date. 

The company's Brent breakeven for dividends and capital expenditure sits around US$50/barrel. This means that at current Oil prices above US$90, it is generating significant free cash flow.

However, Chevron has temporarily halted operations at a gas field off Israel's coast following missile activity in the region, and the stock has since pulled back more than 1% as the conflict directly affects its operations.

What to watch

• Direct operational updates from Chevron's Middle East and Israeli assets.
• Any further halts that could weigh on near-term production. 
• Crude holding above US$90, which keeps Chevron generating significant free cash flow.

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3. Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS/NYSE: WDS)

With Qatar having halted output after Iranian drone strikes, buyers across Asia and Europe are scrambling for alternative supply. Woodside, as one of Australia's largest LNG producers and exporters, sits outside the conflict zone and is well-positioned to benefit from rerouted demand.

Analysts caution that actual substitution takes time due to shipping and contract constraints, meaning the price uplift may be more durable than a simple spot trade. European TTF benchmark gas prices surged over 50% in a week, amplifying the margin environment for non-Middle Eastern LNG producers.

What to watch

• The pace and timeline of any Qatar LNG production restart.
• If QatarEnergy remains offline for weeks, Woodside could begin re-contracting European buyers at elevated spot prices.
• An Australian dollar move higher could be a headwind worth tracking for USD-denominated earnings.

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4. Cheniere Energy (NYSE: LNG)

Alongside Woodside, Cheniere is the most direct US beneficiary of the Qatar LNG disruption. As the largest LNG exporter in the United States, it saw intraday strength at the start of the conflict week. 

US domestic energy production has buffered American consumers from the worst of the shock, but the export premium has widened as European and Asian buyers pay up for non-Gulf supply.

The trade is "geopolitically sensitive," and any resolution could reverse upside quickly. But for as long as Hormuz and Gulf gas infrastructure remain compromised, Cheniere is positioned to benefit structurally.

What to watch

• Any diplomatic breakthrough that reopens Gulf shipping lanes. 
• Announcements of new long-term offtake contracts signed at current elevated prices.

Find more statistics at  Statista

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5. Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM)

Gold surged 5.2% in a single session on 1 March, touching US$5,246/oz, as markets sought safe-haven assets. Newmont, the world's largest gold producer, has seen its reserves effectively revalued at these prices. 

It is up alongside gold's 24% year-to-date gain, and its all-in sustaining costs remain largely fixed.

However, Gold miners sold off sharply on 4 March, and Newmont fell nearly 8% in a single session as broader risk-off deleveraging hit precious metals equities. 

The stock has recovered since, but volatility remains high. For longer-duration investors, analysts note that "safe" mining jurisdictions such as Canada, Australia, and Nevada are commanding fresh premiums as Middle East instability raises the value of geopolitically secure supply.

What to watch

• Whether gold can hold above US$5,000/oz. 
• A prolonged conflict could accelerate an M&A cycle in junior gold miners. 
• A ceasefire or broad equity deleveraging event as the primary risk to monitor.

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6. Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT)

Lockheed Martin reached a new all-time high of US$676.70 on 3 March, up over 4% for the day. Its F-35 fighters, precision-guided munitions, THAAD systems, and HIMARS rocket artillery are central to the ongoing air campaign. 

The US Department of Defence is moving to replenish munitions stockpiles, and Trump's stated ambition to raise the US defence budget to US$1.5 trillion by 2027 adds a longer-term structural tailwind beyond the immediate conflict.

Defence stocks are rising amid classic geopolitical risk pricing, but investors should note that actual contract flow takes time to translate into earnings, and valuations already reflect considerable optimism. 

What to watch

• The pace of US Department of Defence munitions replenishment orders.
• How quickly contract wins translate into backlog growth.

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Top defence stocks to watch: Iran winners and losers

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7. Barrick Gold (NYSE: GOLD)

Barrick is tracking gold's historic run alongside Newmont, with the stock up sharply year-to-date. It sits at a roughly US$78 billion market capitalisation and is reporting record free cash flow projections as its all-in sustaining costs remain well below current spot prices. 

Like Newmont, it experienced a sharp single-session selloff of more than 8% during the broader 4 March deleveraging event, before partially recovering.

Royalty and streaming companies such as Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) are being favoured by some investors as a more inflation-protected way to access gold upside, given their lower operational cost exposure. But Barrick remains one of the world’s largest listed gold miners, with earnings that are highly sensitive to changes in the gold price

What to watch

• Gold's ability to hold above US$5,000/oz. 
• Any Barrick moves toward junior miner acquisitions.
• Energy cost inflation, as rising fuel prices could begin to squeeze miner operating margins.

Latin America recorded $730 billion in crypto volume in 2025. Across the region, 57.7 million people now own some form of digital currency rankingslatam, a base that is growing faster than anywhere else in the world

As institutional capital arrives and regulation matures, these are the publicly traded names investors are watching closest.

Why LATAM is a crypto powerhouse right now

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Top LATAM crypto stocks to watch

1. Nu Holdings (NYSE: NU)

Digital banking · 127M users across Brazil, Mexico and Colombia

Nubank could be one of the most direct listed proxies for LATAM's fintech and crypto boom. The company integrated cryptocurrency trading directly into its Nu app and partnered with Lightspark to embed the Bitcoin Lightning Network for faster and more cost-effective Bitcoin transactions. 

In Q3 2025, revenue jumped 42% year-on-year to $4.17 billion, customer deposits rose 37% to $38.8 billion, and gross profit was up 35% to $1.81 billion. 

The stock has returned roughly 36% over the past year and tripled the S&P 500's returns over the last three years. The company dominates Brazil, with over 60% of the adult population using Nubank.

Nu Holdings also recently secured conditional approval to launch Nubank N.A., a US national digital bank. However, the announcement triggered a pullback, with investors cautious about capital deployment timelines and expansion costs. 

UBS has lowered its price target to $17.20, citing some market caution despite positive operational shifts.

What to watch 

• Credit quality trends in Brazil and Mexico.
• Pace of USDC adoption via Nubank rewards.
• US bank charter timeline and early cost disclosures.

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2. MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI)

E-Commerce/Fintech · 18 countries across Latin America

MercadoLibre is not a pure crypto play, but Mercado Pago (its fintech arm) has become one of the most important financial rails in LATAM. The company holds around 570 BTC on its balance sheet as a hedge against regional inflation, and has issued its own US dollar-pegged stablecoin, Meli Dólar.

Full year 2025 net revenue from Mercado Pago reached $12.6 billion, up 46% year-on-year, while total payment volume hit $278 billion, up 41%. Fintech monthly active users have grown close to 30% for ten consecutive quarters, and the credit portfolio nearly doubled to $12.5 billion year-on-year.

The catch for MercadoLibre is profitability. Overall margin compression of 5–6% is attributed to persistent investments in free shipping, credit card expansion, first-party commerce, and cross-border trade. 

The stock has declined around 14.5% over the past six months, with the market repricing the stock around what management has framed as a deliberate investment phase heading into 2026.

The longer-term case remains compelling. Mercado Pago has introduced crypto-asset management and insurance products across its core markets, positioning it less as an e-commerce company and more as a full-scale digital bank with crypto infrastructure built in.

What to watch

• Mercado Pago loan loss trends and credit portfolio quality.
• Stablecoin integration and crypto volume through its payment network.
• Whether the Argentina credit card launch can reach profitability.

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3. Méliuz (B3: CASH3.SA)

Fintech/Bitcoin treasury · Brazil's first listed Bitcoin treasury company

Méliuz is the most direct equity expression of the corporate Bitcoin treasury trend in LATAM. In early 2025, Méliuz became the first publicly traded company in Latin America to formally adopt a Bitcoin treasury strategy, receiving shareholder approval to allocate cash reserves toward Bitcoin accumulation.

Rather than issuing cheap dollar-denominated debt to buy BTC, Méliuz uses share issuance and operational cash flow. The company also sells cash-secured put options on Bitcoin to generate yield, a playbook borrowed from Japanese Bitcoin treasury firm Metaplanet, keeping 80% of BTC holdings in cold storage

CASH3 essentially acts as a leveraged vehicle for BTC exposure, capturing upside intensely in bull cycles, but generating greater volatility on the way down, especially where debt is involved.

The stock surged approximately 170% in May 2025 following the announcement of the Bitcoin strategy. However, it has since pulled back to its April 2025 levels, broadly tracking Bitcoin's price action and highlighting the stock's volatility.

What to watch

• Bitcoin price direction.
• BTC per share metric.
• Expansion of yield-generation strategies
• Any moves to list shares internationally.

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4. OranjeBTC (B3: OBTC3.SA)

Pure-play Bitcoin treasury · LATAM's largest corporate Bitcoin holder

Where Méliuz is a fintech business that also holds Bitcoin, OranjeBTC is the opposite: a company whose entire purpose is Bitcoin accumulation. 

The company listed on B3 in October 2025 through a reverse merger with education firm Intergraus, marking Brazil's first public debut of a firm whose business model centres entirely on Bitcoin accumulation.

OranjeBTC currently holds over 3,650 BTC and raised nearly $385 million in Bitcoin, with backing from notable investors including the Winklevoss brothers, Adam Back, FalconX, and Ricardo Salinas. 

Its $210 million financing round was led by Itaú BBA, the investment arm of Brazil's largest bank, in a significant vote of institutional confidence.

In 2026, OBTC3 has fallen around 32% year-to-date, making it the hardest-hit of the two Brazilian Bitcoin treasury stocks. The stock hit an all-time high of 29.00 BRL on its listing day (October 7, 2025) and an all-time low of 6.06 BRL in February 2026. 

It currently trades around 7.06 BRL, a steep discount to its debut, but one that closely mirrors Bitcoin's own pullback from peak levels.

OranjeBTC is the most volatile name on this list and should be treated as a high-beta Bitcoin vehicle. Liquidity is thinner than established names.

What to watch

• Bitcoin per share trajectory.
• Any capital raises or new BTC purchases.
• Potential international listing ambitions.
• How the market-value net asset value (mNAV) discount/premium evolves relative to Bitcoin's price.

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5. Hashdex — HASH11 (B3: HASH11)

Crypto Asset Management · Brazil's leading crypto ETF issuer

Hashdex offers a different kind of exposure to crypto. Rather than a single company's balance sheet or business strategy, HASH11 is a diversified basket of crypto assets wrapped in the familiarity of a regulated Brazilian ETF structure. 

Brazil hosts 22 ETFs offering full or partial exposure to crypto assets, with Hashdex funds attracting 180,000 investors and daily transaction volumes averaging R$50 million. 

Hashdex launched the world's first spot XRP ETF (XRPH11) on Brazil's B3 in April 2025, tracking the Nasdaq XRP Reference Price Index and allocating at least 95% of net assets to XRP. 

The company also operates single-asset ETFs for Bitcoin (BITH11), Ethereum (ETHE11) and Solana (SOLH11), alongside its flagship HASH11 multi-asset index fund. 

In mid-2025, Hashdex launched a hybrid Bitcoin/Gold ETF (GBTC11) that dynamically adjusts allocations between the two assets.

For investors who want diversified crypto market exposure rather than single-asset risk, HASH11 is the most accessible on-ramp through Brazil's regulated equity infrastructure. 

However, as a multi-asset crypto index, HASH11 is still subject to the broad performance of digital asset markets. And unlike the equity names on this list, there is no operating business creating independent value.

What to watch

• Crypto market sentiment broadly.
• Potential expansion of Hashdex products into the US market. 
• AUM growth as institutional adoption accelerates in Brazil.
• Relative performance of HASH11 vs single-asset alternatives.

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‍What to watch next

Institutional infrastructure is still in early innings — Deutsche Börse's Crypto Finance Group entered LATAM in early 2026, and local exchanges have opened over 200 BRL-denominated trading pairs since 2024. The pace of that buildout will set the tone for all five names.

Regulatory progress in Brazil, Mexico, and Chile is the key enabler for the next wave of capital. Any setbacks would hit the higher-beta names like OBTC3 and CASH3 hardest.

Stablecoin volume is the region's most reliable real-time signal. Despite a global slowdown in early 2025, LATAM still recorded $16.2 billion in trading volume between January and May, up 42% year-on-year. Watch whether that momentum holds — a reacceleration lifts all five; a reversal pressures them equally.