What is an ETF Most people have heard of ETFs but not everyone knows what they are. An ETF is an Exchange Traded Fund and they are extremely popular amongst retail investors and novice investors. Companies such as Beta shares, Vanguard, Blackrock and others create and manage these holdings on behalf of investors.
An ETF is a collections of stocks that is grouped together to generally replicate the structure and weighting of an index such as the ASX200 or the Nasdaq. Alternatively, an ETF can also be a collections of assets that represents a sector or industry such as an Energy ETF. The market for ETFs has grown substantially with new ETFs being created regularly.
The value for ETFs in the USA by the end of November 2021 was worth 3 Trillion dollars. The advantages of investing in ETFs is that they are generally well diversified and that they don’t require constant administration or management. In addition, they are seen as being relatively passive as holders of shares of the ETF do not need to manage the buying and selling of the holdings of the ETF.
Many ETFs offer dividend reinvestment plans included many investors will not look at their holdings for a long time. The truth of ‘Passive’ Investing Are ETFs really passive? The reality is ETFs require a great deal of management and administration.
The managers of the ETFs must constantly adjust their holdings accurately to reflect either the rules of the ETF or the weighting of the companies on the index. Therefore instead of the ETFs seemingly operating independently they are actually constantly changing all the time. Some ETFs will adjust by buying or selling shares at the end of the trading day.
As indices rebalance, usually every three month, six months or 12 months, the ETF must reflect those changes. The ‘Flow’ on effect The issue is when an Index rebalances, the ETF is required to buy or sell the stocks that are being removed or added. As ETFs have such large holdings in the individual companies their buying and selling can often have quite a strong effect on the price flow of the shares.
This problem is exacerbated with ETFs that hold small cap companies. These smaller companies are even more at risk of a run by an influx of money coming into an ETF’s buying/selling patterns. This can lead to undesirable outcomes as the managers of the ETF must fight themselves to reach their required buy/sell volume of assets.
Potential Issues Blackrock is one of the companies that creates and hold ETFs in various sectors. One of its ETFs tracks 30 energy stocks. At one stage it held 8% of the shares of one of its holdings of one stock.
The cashflows from investors into the ETF were artificially driving up the price of the stock. Essentially, with so many shares to buy and sell, the ETF is ‘fighting itself ‘to fill its orders. This sees a very sharp increase/decrease in price usually with large volume.
In response to this unique problem the S&P Dow Jones Index in consultation with Blackrock created new rules for holdings to be added to the ETF and improve liquidity. For traders, ETFs create potential trading opportunities because as the old saying says “follow the money”. The ‘liquidity vacuum’ that ETFs create can often be quite aggressive moves to a stock’s price action substantially.
By
GO Markets
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Gold's breakthrough above US$5,000 and silver's surge through US$100 signal this year could be one for the history books for metal traders (one way or another).
Quick facts
Elevated safe-haven demand lifts Gold targets from US$5,400 to US$6,000 after early-year US$5,000 breakout.
Artificial intelligence (AI) and data-centre infrastructure ramp-up could help drive silver and copper demand.
Continued geopolitical uncertainty and shifting monetary policy could trigger metal volatility throughout the year.
Top 5 metals to watch in 2026
1. Gold
Gold's breakout over US$5,100 arrived three quarters ahead of some forecasts. With Bank of America quickly raising its end-of-year target to US$6,000 and Goldman Sachs projecting US$5,400, the safe-haven commodity remains the biggest asset in focus for 2026.
Key drivers:
Central banks are currently buying an average of 60 tonnes of gold per month, compared to 17 tonnes pre-2022.
Two Fed rate cuts are priced in for 2026, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
Trump tariff policies, Middle East tensions, and fiscal sustainability concerns are keeping safe-haven demand elevated.
Gold's share of total financial assets hit 2.8% in Q3 2025, with room to grow as retail FOMO kicks in.
What to watch
Jerome Powell is set to be replaced as Fed chair in May 2026. Actual policy direction post-replacement may differ from current market expectations for cuts.
If geopolitical hedges into safe havens remain or if there is an unwinding like post- 2024 US election.
The potential weaponisation of dollar asset holdings by European nations as a response to US tariffs.
Silver is the metal that has benefited the most from the 2025 AI boom, with its surge to US$112 all-time-highs to kick off 2026 (70% above fundamental value as per Bank of America signal), demonstrating its volatile potential.
Key drivers
Industrial demand from AI infrastructure, solar, and electric vehicles (EVs), semiconductors and data centres currently has no viable substitute for silver's conductivity.
Six consecutive years of supply deficit, with above-ground stocks depleting and recycling bottlenecks limiting secondary supply.
Policy optics may matter. The US decision to add silver to its list of “critical minerals” has been cited as a potential factor in volatility, including around trade policy risk.
Retail participation can amplify price moves, particularly when the demand for gold becomes “too expensive”.
What to watch
If solar panel demand continues its trajectory, or if 2025 was the peak.
Whether the recycling supply responds to record prices by increasing silver refining and material processing capacity.
How exchange inventory and lease rates move as potential signals of physical tightness.
Copper's 2026 story hinges on continued data centre demand, renewable energy infrastructure growth, and China's struggling property market.
Key drivers
Data centre copper consumption is projected to hit 475,000 tonnes in 2026, up 110,000 tonnes from 2025.
Worker strikes in Chile and Grasberg restart delays are keeping the Copper market structurally tight.
The US tariff decision on refined copper imports is expected in mid-2026 (15%+ currently anticipated), creating potential stockpiling and trade flow distortions.
Goldman Sachs has forecast that power grid infrastructure and EV buildout could add "another United States" worth of copper demand by 2030.
Current Chinese property weakness is creating demand uncertainty, potentially offsetting infrastructure spending.
What to watch
Whether Grasberg ramps production smoothly or faces further setbacks.
Chinese property market stimulus effectiveness.
Actual tariff implementation timing and magnitude.
Yangshan premium movements signalling real physical demand versus financial positioning.
Goldman Sachs forecasts copper prices to drop to $11,000 per tonne by the end of 2026
4. Aluminium
Trading near three-year highs of US$3,200, aluminium faces continued tightness into 2026 as China's capacity ceiling forces global markets to adjust.
Key drivers
China's 45 million tonne capacity cap was reached in 2025. For the first time in decades, Chinese output cannot expand, potentially ending 80% of global supply growth.
As copper prices increase, Reuters has reported that some manufacturers have been substituting aluminium for copper in certain applications as relative prices shift.
What to watch
South32 has said Mozal Aluminium is expected to be placed on care and maintenance around 15 March 2026, thus removing Mozambique's 560,000 tonne significant supply.
If Indonesian and Chinese offshore capacity additions can compensate for Chinese domestic ceiling.
Century Aluminium's 50,000 tonne Mount Holly restart in Q2 could provide a signal for the broader industry as the smelter is expected to reach full production by 30 June 2026.
Projected 2026 Aluminium deficit after Mozal shutdown. Source: IAI, WBMS, ING Research
5. Platinum
Platinum's breakout above US$2,800 follows three consecutive years of supply deficit and increased adoption of hydrogen fuel cells (for which it is a vital component).
Key drivers
The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) has forecast a significant supply deficit of 850,000 ounces in 2026 which could drain inventories, with limited new production coming online.
WPIC forecasts 875,000 to 900,000 oz uptake by 2030 for heavy-duty trucks, buses, and green hydrogen electrolysers.
Palladium-to-platinum substitution in catalytic converters is increasing in EV production.
What to watch
Supply response from producers. Platreef and Bakubung are adding 150,000 oz, but production discipline could limit a broader ramp-up.
US tariffs on Russian palladium could create spillover demand for platinum in EV production.
The pace of hydrogen infrastructure investment and heavy-duty vehicle adoption rates in Europe, China, and US.
Chinese jewellery demand could come into play. Just a 1% substitution from gold could widen the platinum deficit by 10% of the global supply.
Projected hydrogen fuel cell growth 2025-2030
You can trade Gold, Silver, and other Commodity CFDs, including energies and agricultural products, on GO Markets.
The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) is one of the world's top 20 exchanges, hosting over 2,000 listed companies worth approximately $2 trillion.
Quick Facts:
The ASX operates as Australia's primary stock exchange, combining market trading, clearinghouse operations, and trade and payment settlement.
It represents roughly 80% of the Australian equity market value through its flagship ASX 200 index.
2,000+ companies and 300+ ETFs are listed on the exchange, spanning from mining giants to tech innovators.
How does the ASX work?
The ASX combines three critical functions in one system.
As a market operator, it provides the electronic platform where buyers and sellers meet. Trading occurs through a sophisticated computer system that matches orders in milliseconds, replacing the traditional floor-based trading that once defined stock exchanges globally.
The exchange also acts as a clearinghouse, ensuring trades settle correctly. When you buy shares, the ASX guarantees the transaction completes, managing the transfer of securities and funds between parties.
Finally, it serves as a payments facilitator, processing the money flows that accompany each trade. This integrated approach reduces settlement risk and keeps the market running smoothly.
What are ASX trading hours?
The ASX operates from 10:00am to 4:00pm Sydney time (AEST/AEDT) on business days, with a pre-open phase from 7:00am.
Stocks open alphabetically in staggered intervals starting at 10:00am, followed by continuous trading until the closing auction at 4:00pm.
The exchange observes Australian public holidays and adjusts for daylight saving time between October and April, which can affect coordination with international markets.
ASX trading hours by time zone:
Phase
Sydney (AEST)
Tokyo (JST)
London (BST)
New York (EDT)
Pre-Open
7:00am - 10:00am
6:00am - 9:00am
10:00pm - 1:00am
5:00pm - 8:00pm*
Normal Trading
10:00am - 4:00pm
9:00am - 3:00pm
1:00am - 7:00am
8:00pm - 2:00am*
Closing Auction
4:00pm - 4:10pm
3:00pm - 3:10pm
7:00am - 7:10am
2:00am - 2:10am
*Previous day. Note: Times shown assume daylight saving time in effect (AEST/BST/EDT). Japan does not observe daylight saving. Time differences vary when regions switch between standard and daylight saving at different dates.
Top ASX Indices
S&P/ASX 200
This is the exchange's flagship index. It tracks the 200 largest companies by market capitalisation and represents approximately 80% of Australia's equity market.
It serves as the primary benchmark for most investors and fund managers and is rebalanced quarterly to ensure it reflects the current market leaders.
The ASX also breaks down into 11 sector-specific indices, allowing investors to track performance in areas like financials, materials, healthcare, and technology.
These indices can help identify which parts of the Australian economy are strengthening or weakening.
ASX sector breakdown as of 31 December 2025. Source: S&P Global
Financials dominates as the largest sector, driven by Commonwealth Bank, NAB, Westpac, and ANZ. These banking giants provide lending, wealth management, and insurance services across Australia.
Materials ranks second, led by mining powerhouses BHP and Rio Tinto. This sector extracts and processes resources, including iron ore, coal, copper, and gold.
Consumer Discretionary includes retailers, media companies, and hospitality groups that benefit when household spending rises.
Industrials encompasses construction firms, airlines, and professional services businesses.
Healthcare features companies like CSL, a global biotech leader, and Cochlear, which produces hearing implants.
Real Estate features property developers and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) that own and manage commercial and residential assets.
Communication Services includes telecommunications providers like Telstra alongside media and entertainment companies.
Energy tracks oil and gas producers (many renewable energy companies typically fall under utilities).
Consumer Staples covers essential goods providers like supermarkets and food producers.
Information Technology includes software developers and IT services firms.
Utilities covers electricity, gas, and water suppliers, including renewable energy.
ASX sector breakdown:
ASX Symbol
Sector
Top Stocks
% of ASX 200
XFJ
Financials
CBA, NAB, ANZ
33.4%
XMJ
Materials
Orica, Amcor, BHP
23.2%
XDJ
Consumer Discretionary
Harvey Norman, Crown
7.4%
XNJ
Industrials
Qantas, Transurban
7.4%
XHJ
Health Care
ResMed, CSL and Cochlear
7.1%
XRE
Real Estate
Mirvac, LendLease, Westfield
6.7%
XTJXIJ
Communication Services
Telstra, Airtasker
3.7%
XEJ
Energy
Santos, Woodside
3.6%
XSJ
Consumer Staples
Woolworths, Westfarmers
3.4%
XIJ
Information Technology
Dicker Data, Xero
2.5%
XUJ
Utilities
AGL, APA Group
1.4%
Data accurate as of 31 December 2025. Source: SP Global
Top ASX companies
Three companies consistently lead the S&P/ASX 200 by market capitalisation.
Commonwealth Bank (Mkt cap: A$259 bln)
Commonwealth Bank holds the top position on the ASX as Australia's biggest lender.
Founded in 1911 and fully privatised by 1996, CBA offers retail banking, business lending, wealth management, and insurance.
Its performance often signals the health of the domestic economy.
BHP Group (Mkt cap: A$241 bln)
BHP Group stands as the world's largest mining company.
Its diversified portfolio spans iron ore, copper, coal, and nickel operations globally.
It serves as a bellwether for Australian commodity markets.
CSL Limited (Mkt cap: A$182 bln)
CSL Limited leads the Australian healthcare sector as a global biotech firm.
Established in 1916, CSL develops treatments for rare diseases and manufactures influenza vaccines.
The company demonstrates Australian innovation competing on the world stage.
The ASX serves as a vital mechanism for capital formation in Australia. It tends to provide price signals that reflect market expectations.
When share prices rise, it suggests optimism about economic conditions. Falling markets may indicate concerns about future growth.
Australian companies raise funds through initial public offerings and follow-on share sales on the ASX, using proceeds to expand operations, fund research, or pay down debt.
Investors in these shares benefit from potential capital gains and dividend income. Many Australians build retirement savings through superannuation funds that invest heavily in ASX-listed companies.
Employment in financial services also depends partly on a healthy stock market. Brokers, analysts, fund managers, and supporting roles exist because of active capital markets.
Key takeaways
The ASX functions as a market operator, clearinghouse, and payments facilitator, providing the infrastructure that enables capital formation and supports retirement savings for millions of Australians.
Its flagship index, the S&P/ASX 200, tracks the 200 largest companies and captures about 80% of market capitalisation, while the All Ordinaries index covers the top 500.
Financials and Materials dominate the exchange, led by Commonwealth Bank, BHP, and CSL, reflecting Australia's strength in banking and resources.
Venezuela commands the world's largest proven oil reserves at 303 billion (bn) barrels (bbl). Yet political turmoil, global sanctions, and recent US intervention show that being the biggest isn’t always best.
What does this mean for oil markets?
The concentration of reserves among Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members (60% of the global total) gives the group ongoing influence on supply policy and market sentiment, even as US shale provides a production counterweight.
Venezuela's potential return as a major exporter post-US intervention could eventually ease supply constraints, though most analysts view significant production increases as years away.
Sanctions could create a situation where discounted crude seeks buyers willing to navigate compliance risks. Refiners with heavy crude processing capability may benefit from price differentials if Venezuelan barrels increase.
While reserves appear abundant, economically recoverable volumes depend on sustained high prices. If renewable adoption accelerates and demand peaks sooner than projected, stranded assets become a material risk for reserve-heavy producers.
Top 10 countries by proven oil reserves
1. Venezuela – 303 billion barrels
Controls 18% of global reserves, primarily extra-heavy crude in the Orinoco Belt requiring specialised refining.
Heavy crude typically trades $15-$20 below Brent benchmarks due to high sulphur content and complex processing requirements.
Output crashed by 60% from 2.5 million bpd in 2014 to less than 1 million barrels per day (BPD) last year.
Approximately 80% of exports flow to China as loan repayments, with export revenues dwarfed by reserve potential.
2. Saudi Arabia – 267 billion barrels
The majority of its light, sweet crude oil requires minimal refining and commands premium prices, contributing to world-leading exports of $191.1 bn in 2024.
Maintains 2-3 million bpd of spare production capacity, providing a stabilising buffer during supply disruptions.
Oil comprises roughly 50% of the country’s GDP and 70% of its export earnings.
Production decisions significantly impact international oil prices due to market dominance.
Heavy Western sanctions severely limit the country’s ability to monetise and access international markets.
Production estimates vary significantly (2.5-3.8 million bpd) due to sanctions, limited transparency, and restricted international reporting.
Significant crude volumes flow to China through discount arrangements and sanctions-evading mechanisms.
Sanctions relief could rapidly boost production toward 4-5 million bpd, though domestic consumption (12th globally) reduces export potential.
4. Canada – 163 billion barrels
Approximately 97% of reserves are oil sands (bitumen) requiring steam-assisted extraction and significant upfront capital investment.
Political stability and regulatory frameworks position Canada as a secure source compared to volatile producers, with direct pipeline access to US refineries.
Supplied over 60% of US crude oil imports in 2024, making Canada America's top source by far.
5. Iraq – 145 billion barrels
Decades of war and sanctions have prevented optimal field development and infrastructure modernisation.
Improved security conditions since 2017 have enabled production recovery, but pipeline attacks and ageing facilities continue to constrain output.
Oil revenue comprises over 90% of government income, creating extreme fiscal vulnerability.
Exports flow primarily to China, India, and Asian buyers seeking a reliable Middle Eastern supply, with most production from super-giant southern fields near Basra.
6. United Arab Emirates – 113 billion barrels
Produces primarily medium-to-light sweet crude commanding premium prices, ranking fourth globally in export value at $87.6 bn.
Has successfully diversified its economy through tourism, finance, and trade, reducing oil's GDP share compared to Gulf peers.
Strategic location near the Strait of Hormuz and openness to international oil companies help facilitate efficient global distribution.
7. Kuwait – 101.5 billion barrels
Reserves are concentrated in ageingsuper-giant fields like Burgan, which require enhanced recovery techniques.
Favourable geology enables extraction costs around $8-$10 per barrel, with proven reserves providing 80+ years of supply at current production rates.
Oil comprises 60% of GDP and over 95% of export revenue.
8. Russia – 80 billion barrels
The world's third-largest producer despite ranking eighth in reserves.
Post-2022, Western sanctions redirected crude flows from Europe to Asia, with China and India now absorbing the majority at discounted prices.
Despite export restrictions and G7 price cap at $60/barrel, it posted the second-highest global export value at $169.7 bn in 2024.
Russian Urals crude typically trades $15-30 below Brent due to quality, sanctions, and logistics, with November 2024 revenues declining to $11 bn.
9. United States – 74.4 billion barrels
The shale revolution through horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing has made the US the world's No.1 oil producer despite holding only the 9th-largest reserves.
The Permian Basin accounts for nearly 50% of production, with shale/tight oil representing 65% of total output.
Achieved net petroleum exporter status in 2020 for the first time since 1949, with crude exports growing from near-zero in 2015 to over 4 million bpd in 2024.
The US government maintains a strategic reserve of 375+ million barrels.
10. Libya – 48.4 billion barrels
Holds Africa's largest proven oil reserves at 48.4 bn barrels, producing light sweet crude commanding premium prices.
Rival bordering governments compete for oil revenue control, causing production to fluctuate based on political conditions.
Oil facilities face blockades, militia attacks, and political leverage tactics, preventing consistent returns.
Favourable geology enables extraction costs around $10-15 per barrel, with geographic proximity making Libya a natural supplier to European refineries.
You can trade Oil and other Commodity CFDs, including metals, energies, and agricultural products, on GO Markets.
Expected earnings date: Thursday, 4 February 2026 (US, after market close) / ~8:00 am, Friday, 5 February 2026 (AEDT)
Alphabet’s earnings provide insight into global digital advertising demand, enterprise cloud spending, and broader technology-sector investment trends.
As Google Search and YouTube are widely used by both consumers and businesses, results are often used as one input when assessing online activity and corporate marketing budgets, alongside other indicators.
Key areas in focus
Search
Search advertising remains Alphabet’s largest revenue driver. Markets are likely to focus on ad growth rates, pricing metrics such as cost-per-click, and overall advertiser demand across sectors such as retail, travel, and small-to-medium businesses.
YouTube
YouTube contributes to both advertising and subscription revenue. Markets commonly monitor advertising momentum, engagement trends, and monetisation developments as indicators of digital media conditions and brand spending.
Google Cloud
Sustained Cloud profitability is often discussed as a factor that may influence longer-term earnings expectations, though outcomes remain uncertain. Markets are expected to focus on revenue growth, enterprise adoption trends, and operating margins.
Other bets
Initiatives such as autonomous driving and life sciences, while typically smaller contributors to revenue, markets may still watch spending levels and progress updates as indicators of capital allocation and cost discipline.
Cost and margin framework
Management has previously flagged elevated capex tied to AI infrastructure, including data centres, specialised chips, and computing capacity. Traffic acquisition costs, staffing levels, and infrastructure expansion are also key variables influencing profitability.
What happened last quarter
Alphabet’s most recent quarterly update highlighted advertising trends, Cloud profitability, and continued increases in capex to support AI initiatives.
Management commentary has indicated that infrastructure spending is intended to support long-term competitiveness, while the market continues to assess the near-term margin trade-offs.
Last earnings key highlights
For reported figures and segment detail from the most recent quarter, refer to Alphabet’s latest earnings release materials, including revenue, earnings per share (EPS), Services mix, Cloud operating income, and capex commentary.
Bloomberg consensus estimates moderate year-on-year (YoY) revenue growth and higher EPS versus the prior-year quarter, with ongoing focus on operating margins given AI-related investment.
Bloomberg consensus reference points:
EPS: low-to-mid US$2 range
Revenue: high US$80 billion to low US$90 billion range
Capex: expected to remain elevated
*All above points observed as of 31 January 2026.
Market-implied expectations
Listed options implied an indicative expected move of around ±4% to ±6% over the relevant near-dated expiry window. Movements derived from option prices observed at 11:00 am AEDT, 2 February 2026.
These are market-implied estimates and may change. Actual post-earnings price moves can be larger or smaller.
What this means for Australian market participants
Alphabet’s earnings can influence near-term sentiment across major US equity indices, particularly Nasdaq-linked products, with potential spillover into the Asia session following the release.
Important risk note
Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information.
Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.
Global markets enter a catalyst-dense week where multiple central bank decisions, ongoing US earnings, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision may help shape near-term direction.
RBA rate decision: Market pricing currently implies a higher probability of a Target Cash Rate increase.
Global central banks: The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) both communicate within the same week, creating the potential for policy cross-currents.
US earnings: The earnings cycle continues with Alphabet and Amazon reporting this week.
Gold: Trading near elevated levels amid macro uncertainty and shifting rate expectations.
RBA rate decision
RBA decision Tuesday, 3 February, 2:30 pm (AEDT)
RBA media conference: Tuesday, 3 February, 3:30 pm (AEDT)
A 67% likelihood of a rate rise is suggested on the RBA rate-tracker within the futures pricing framework, indicating a market-implied probability of a move.
Market impact
AUD pairs may respond quickly to any repricing of the rate path.
Rate-sensitive equity sectors could see rotation.
Government bond yields may adjust if expectations shift.
Gold has traded near elevated levels amid macro uncertainty and shifting rate expectations. For many traders, strength in gold is sometimes associated with defensive positioning, though gold prices can be volatile and can fall.
The US dollar, Treasury yield movements and geopolitical narrative often influence short-term direction.
Market impact
Continued strength may suggest some investors are leaning toward defensive positioning.
USD and sovereign yield movements often influence short-term direction.
After a strong advance, periods of consolidation or profit-taking are common.
Expected earnings date: Thursday, 5 February 2026 (US, after market close)/early Friday, 6 February 2026
Amazon’s earnings provide insight into global consumer spending trends, cloud infrastructure demand, and the monetisation of its ecosystem across retail, advertising, and subscription services.
Focus is expected to remain on performance across key business areas, along with commentary on cost efficiency, capital expenditure, and AI-related investments, including data centre expansion.
Key areas in focus
Online stores and third-party services
Amazon’s core retail business remains sensitive to discretionary consumer demand, particularly through the December-quarter holiday period. Markets are likely to focus on revenue growth and margins across both first-party retail and third-party seller services. Cost pressures will also be evaluated.
AWS (Amazon Web Services)
AWS is a key earnings driver. Investors are likely to focus on revenue growth rates, margin trends, and indications around enterprise cloud spending. AI workloads will also be noteworthy. Any commentary on capacity expansion and capex is likely to be closely watched.
Advertising services
Amazon’s advertising business has become an increasingly important profit contributor. Markets are likely to assess growth momentum, advertiser demand, and how advertising integrates across Amazon’s retail and Prime ecosystems.
Subscription services (including Prime)
Subscription revenue includes Prime memberships and related digital services. Investors may watch engagement, pricing dynamics, and retention trends as indicators of ecosystem strength.
Cost and margin framework
Management has previously emphasised the need for cost discipline across fulfilment, logistics, and corporate expenses. Reported operating margins and any updates on efficiency gains or reinvestment priorities across key business services will be of interest.
What happened last quarter
Amazon’s most recent quarterly update reported revenue growth and operating income outcomes, with AWS and advertising referenced as key contributors, alongside ongoing cost-control measures across the retail business.
The prior update also included discussion relevant to investment priorities in cloud and AI infrastructure, which continue to influence market expectations.
Last earnings key highlights
Revenue: US$180.2 billion
Earnings per share (EPS): US$1.95 (diluted)
AWS revenue: US$33.0 billion
Advertising services revenue: US$17.7 billion
Operating income: US$17.4 billion
How the market reacted last time
Amazon shares moved higher in after-hours trading following the previous release, based on reporting at the time.
Amazon Q3 2025 Consolidated Statements of Operations
What’s expected this quarter
Bloomberg consensus estimates point to year-on-year EPS growth for the quarter ended December 2025, with markets focused on the revenue outcome, operating margins, and AWS performance, given the importance of the December quarter (Q4) to Amazon’s earnings profile.
Market sentiment around Amazon may be sensitive to any disappointment in AWS growth, operating margins, or December-quarter (Q4 2025) retail performance, given the stock’s large index weighting within major US equity indices and its role in these areas.
Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±4% to ±5% based on near-dated, at-the-money options-implied expected move estimates observed on Barchart at 11:00 am AEDT, 28 January 2026.
Implied volatility was approximately 32% annualised at that time.
These are market-implied estimates (not a forecast) and may change. Actual post-earnings price moves can be larger or smaller.
What this means for Australian investors
Amazon’s earnings can influence near-term sentiment across major US equity indices, with potential spillover into the Asia session following the release. It may also influence sentiment towards ASX-listed companies with significant online sales exposure.
Important risk note
Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information.
Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.