Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 25 February 2026 (US, after market close) / ~8:00 am, Thursday, 26 February 2026 (AEDT)
NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings release is expected to revolve around data centre revenue growth, the sustainability of AI-related demand, gross margin trajectory, and forward guidance into fiscal year 2027 (FY2027).
Markets are likely to focus on capital expenditure trends, supply capacity, and management’s AI infrastructure outlook.
Some market participants may also view NVIDIA’s results as a useful signal for broader AI-related investment sentiment, although outcomes can still be influenced by company-specific factors and wider market conditions.
Key areas in focus
Data centre (AI chips)
The data centre segment continues to be NVIDIA’s primary growth driver. Markets are likely to monitor revenue growth rates, gross margins, and guidance around AI accelerator demand.
Gaming
NVIDIA also sells graphics cards for gaming PCs. Markets will watch whether this part of the business remains steady and profitable, particularly alongside broader consumer and PC-cycle trends.
Automotive and Professional Visualisation
These are smaller divisions linked to AI development, design software and autonomous driving. They are not typically the main driver of near-term results, but commentary may be watched for signs of longer-term growth and product momentum.
Profit margins and costs
Markets will assess how profitable NVIDIA remains, particularly as AI-related investment and supply scaling continue. Margins are one factor closely watched alongside revenue growth, guidance, and broader risk sentiment.
What happened last quarter
In its most recent quarterly update, NVIDIA reported strong year-on-year revenue growth, led primarily by data centre demand.
Management commentary and subsequent reporting referenced ongoing strength in AI accelerator demand and referenced continued supply-scaling initiatives.
Last earnings key highlights
- Revenue: US$57.0 billion
- Earnings per share (EPS): US$1.30 (diluted)
- Data centre revenue: US$51.2 billion
- Gross margin: 73.4%
- Operating income: US$36.0 billion
What analysts expect this quarter
Bloomberg consensus estimates point to continued year-on-year revenue growth in the upcoming report, with markets focused on data centre performance and forward guidance into FY2027.
Bloomberg consensus reference point:
- EPS: about US$1.52
- Revenue: about US$65.5 billion
- Full-year FY2027 EPS: about US$7.66
*All above points observed as of 16 February 2026.
Analysts broadly expect sustained AI-related demand, while attention remains on supply dynamics and the pace of any demand normalisation.
Market-implied expectations
Listed options were pricing an indicative move of approximately ±7% to ±8% around the earnings release, based on near-dated, at-the-money (ATM) options-implied expected-move estimates. Implied volatility was approximately 48% annualised.
What this means for Australian investors
NVIDIA’s earnings may influence near-term sentiment and volatility across major US equity indices, including the NASDAQ 100, with potential spillover into the Asia session following the release.
It may also influence sentiment toward ASX-listed technology-exposed companies and ETFs with exposure to US large-cap growth sectors, although correlations can shift quickly around major events.
Australian-based investors may also wish to factor in AUD/USD currency moves, which can affect the local-currency translation of offshore equities and ETFs.
Important risk note
Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information.
Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.
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