Market news & insights

Every four years, the Olympics does something markets understand very well: it concentrates attention. And when attention concentrates, so do headlines, narratives, positioning… and sometimes, price.

The Olympics isn’t just “two weeks of sport.” For traders, it’s a two-week global marketing and tourism event, delivered in real time, often while Australia is asleep.

So, let’s make this useful.

Scheduled dates: Friday 6 February to Sunday 22 February 2026
Where: Milan, Cortina d’Ampezzo, and alpine venues across northern Italy

What matters (and what doesn’t)

Matters

• Money moving early: Infrastructure, transport upgrades, sponsorship, media rights and tourism booking trends.
• Narrative amid liquidity: Themed trades can run harder than fundamentals, especially when volume shows up but can also reverse quickly.
• Earnings language: Traders often watch whether companies start referencing demand, bookings, ad spend, or guidance tailwinds.

Doesn’t

• Medal counts (controversial statement, I know).

Why the Olympics matter to markets

The Olympics are not just two weeks of sport. For host regions, they often reflect years of planning, investment and marketing and then all of that gets shoved into one concentrated global media moment. That’s why markets pay attention, even when the fundamentals haven’t suddenly reinvented themselves.

Here are a few themes host regions may see. Outcomes vary by host, timing, and the macro backdrop.

Theme map: where headlines usually cluster

Construction and materials
Logistics upgrades, transport links, and “sustainable” builds.

Luxury and tourism
Milan’s fashion-capital status starts turning into demand well before opening night.

Media and streaming
Advertising increases as audiences surge and platforms cash in.

Transport and travel
Airlines, hotels and travel tech riding the volume, and the expectations.

For Australian-based traders, the key idea is exposure, not geography. Italian listings aren’t required to see the theme while simultaneously, some people look for ASX-listed companies whose earnings may be linked to similar forces (travel demand, discretionary spend). The connection is not guaranteed. It depends on the business, the numbers and the valuation.

The ASX shortlist

The ASX shortlist is simply a way to organise the local market by exposure, so you can see which parts of the index are most likely to pick up the spillover. It is not a forecast and it is not a recommendation, it is a framework for tracking how a narrative moves from headlines into sector pricing, and for separating genuine theme exposure from names that are only catching the noise.

Wesfarmers (WES): broad retail exposure that gives a read on the local consumer.

Flight Centre (FLT): may offer higher exposure to travel cycles across retail and corporate.

Corporate Travel Management (CTD): business travel sensitivity, and it often reacts to conference and event demands.

The Aussie toolkit

The Olympics compresses attention, and when attention compresses, a handful of instruments tend to register it first while everything else just picks up noise. The whole point here is monitoring and discipline, not variety. 

FX: the fastest headline absorber

Examples: EUR/USD, EUR/AUD, with AUD/JPY often watched as broader risk-sentiment signals.
What it captures: how markets are pricing European optimism, global risk appetite, and where capital is leaning in real time

Index benchmarks: the sentiment dashboard

Examples (index level): Euro Stoxx 50, DAX, FTSE, S&P 500.
What it can capture: whether a headline is broad enough to influence wider positioning, or whether it stays contained to a narrow theme.

Commodities: second order, often the amplifier

Examples: copper (industrial sensitivity), Brent/WTI (energy and geopolitics), gold (risk/uncertainty).
What it can capture: the bigger drivers (USD, rates, growth expectations, weather and geopolitics) with the Olympics usually acting as the wrapper rather than the engine.

Put together, this is not a prediction, and it is not a shopping list. It is a compact map of where the Olympics story is most likely to show itself first, where it might spread next, and where it sometimes shows up late, after everyone has already decided how they feel about it.

Your calendar is not Europe’s calendar

For Aussie traders, the Olympics is a two-week, overnight headline cycle. Much of the “live” information flow is likely to land during the European and US sessions. However, there are three windows to keep in mind.

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Watch this space.

In the next piece, we’ll build the Euro checklist and map the volatility windows around Milano–Cortina so you can see when the market is actually pricing the story, and when it is just reacting to noise.

For over 110 years, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) has operated at a deliberate distance from the White House and Congress.

It is the only federal agency that doesn’t report to any single branch of government in the way most agencies do, and can implement policy without waiting for political approval.

These policies include interest rate decisions, adjusting the money supply, emergency lending to banks, capital reserve requirements for banks, and determining which financial institutions require heightened oversight.

The Fed can act independently on all these critical economic decisions and more.

But why does the US government enable this? And why is it that nearly every major economy has adopted a similar model for their central bank?

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The foundation of Fed independence: the panic of 1907

The Fed was established in 1913 following the Panic of 1907, a major financial crisis. It saw major banks collapse, the stock market drop nearly 50%, and credit markets freeze across the country.

At the time, the US had no central authority to inject liquidity into the banking system during emergencies or to prevent cascading bank failures from toppling the entire economy. 

J.P. Morgan personally orchestrated a bailout using his own fortune, highlighting just how fragile the US financial system had become.

The debate that followed revealed that while the US clearly needed a central bank, politicians were objectively seen as poorly positioned to run it.

Previous attempts at central banking had failed partly due to political interference. Presidents and Congress had used monetary policy to serve short-term political goals rather than long-term economic stability.

So it was decided that a stand-alone body responsible for making all major economic decisions would be created. Essentially, the Fed was created because politicians, who face elections and public pressure, couldn’t be relied upon to make unpopular decisions when needed for the long-term economy.

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How does Fed independence work?

Although the Fed is designed to be an autonomous body, separate from political influence, it still has accountability to the US government (and thereby US voters). 

The President is responsible for appointing the Fed Chair and the seven Governors of the Federal Reserve Board, subject to confirmation by the Senate. 

Each Governor serves a 14-year term, and the Chair serves a four-year term. The Governors' terms are staggered to prevent any single administration from being able to change the entire board overnight.

Beyond this “main” board, there are twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks that operate across the country. Their presidents are appointed by private-sector boards and approved by the Fed's seven Governors. Five of these presidents vote on interest rates at any given time, alongside the seven Governors.

This creates a decentralised structure where no single person or political party can dictate monetary policy. Changing the Fed's direction requires consensus across multiple appointees from different administrations.

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The case for Fed independence: Nixon, Burns, and the inflation hangover

The strongest argument for keeping the Fed independent comes from Nixon’s time as president in the 1970s.

Nixon pressured Fed Chair Arthur Burns to keep interest rates low in the lead-up to the 1972 election. Burns complied, and Nixon won in a landslide. Over the next decade, unemployment and inflation both rose simultaneously (commonly referred to now as “stagflation”). 

By the late 1970s, inflation exceeded 13 per cent, Nixon was out of office, and it was time to appoint a new Fed chair.

That new Fed chair was Paul Volcker. And despite public and political pressure to bring down interest rates and reduce unemployment, he pushed the rate up to more than 19 per cent to try to break inflation. 

The decision triggered a brutal recession, with unemployment hitting nearly 11 per cent. 

But by the mid-1980s, inflation had dropped back into the low single digits. 

Volcker stood firm where non-independent politicians would have backflipped in the face of plummeting poll numbers.

The “Volcker era” is now taught as a masterclass in why central banks need independence. The painful medicine worked because the Fed could withstand political backlash that would have broken a less autonomous institution.

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Are other central banks independent? 

Nearly every major developed economy has an independent central bank. The European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, and Reserve Bank of Australia all operate with similar autonomy from their governments as the Fed.

However, there are examples of developed nations that have moved away from independent central banks.

In Turkey, the president forced its central bank to maintain low rates even as inflation soared past 85 per cent. The decision served short-term political goals while devastating the purchasing power of everyday people.

Argentina's recurring economic crises have been exacerbated by monetary policy subordinated to political needs. Venezuela's hyperinflation accelerated after the government asserted greater control over its central bank.

The pattern tends to show that the more control the government has over monetary policy, the more the economy leans toward instability and higher inflation.

Independent central banks may not be perfect, but they have historically outperformed the alternative.

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Why do markets care about Fed independence?

Markets generally prefer predictability, and independent central banks make more predictable decisions.

Fed officials often outline how they plan to adjust policy and what their preferred data points are. 

Currently, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly jobs reports, and quarterly GDP releases form expectations about the future path of interest rates.

This transparency and predictability help businesses map out investments, banks to set lending rates, and everyday people to plan major financial decisions.

When political influence infiltrates these decisions, it introduces uncertainty. Instead of following predictable patterns based on publicly released data, interest rates can shift based on electoral considerations or political preference, which makes long-term planning more difficult.

The markets react to this uncertainty through stock price volatility, potential bond yield rises, and fluctuating currency values.

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The enduring logic

The independence of the Federal Reserve is about recognising that stable money and sustainable growth require institutions capable of making unpopular decisions when economic fundamentals demand them.

Elections will always create pressure for easier monetary conditions. Inflation will always tempt policymakers to delay painful adjustments. And the political calendar will never align perfectly with economic cycles. 

Fed independence exists to navigate these eternal tensions, not perfectly, but better than political control has managed throughout history.

That's why this principle, forged in financial panics and refined through successive crises, remains central to how modern economies function. And it's why debates about central bank independence, whenever they arise, touch something fundamental about how democracies can maintain long-term prosperity.

February opens with a policy-heavy tone led by Australia’s RBA decision, while Japan provides the core macro anchors through GDP and inflation updates. In contrast, China’s calendar lightens due to the Spring Festival, shifting attention to liquidity and policy headlines. Across the region, a firmer USD and softer metals continue to frame cross-asset performance, especially for commodity-linked currencies.

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Australia: RBA

Australia begins February with a policy-driven focus as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivers its monetary policy decision, setting the month’s initial tone for rates, currency, and equities. While markets had priced around a 70% chance of a hike as of 30 January, expectations remain highly sensitive to evolving data and RBA commentary.

Key dates

• RBA Monetary Policy Decision: 2:30 pm, 3 February (AEDT)
• Wage Price Index (WPI): 11:30 am, 18 February (AEDT)
• Labour Force: 11:30 am, 19 February (AEDT)

What markets look for

Aussie traders will gauge whether the RBA reinforces a data‑dependent stance or shifts more decisively toward tightening.

Wage and labour data will be central in testing inflation persistence, while the next CPI reading anchors positioning heading into March. A balanced or mildly hawkish tone could keep short‑term yields elevated and limit downside in the AUD.

Market sensitivities

AUD and ASX performance will primarily reflect the RBA’s policy tone and broader USD momentum, while resource‑linked sectors should continue to track metals and bulk commodity trends.

The February earnings season, highlighted by CBA and CSL (11 Feb), BHP (17 Feb), and Rio Tinto (19 Feb), is also set to reintroduce stock‑specific drivers once the initial policy focus fades.

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Australia: CPI

Australia’s February Consumer Price Index (CPI) release will be a key post‑RBA event, offering the clearest read on whether domestic inflation pressures are easing in line with the central bank’s expectations.

The data following the RBA’s February policy decision and could quickly reset rate path probabilities reflected in ASX futures pricing.

Key dates

• Consumer Price Index (CPI): 11:30 am, 25 February (AEDT)

What markets look for

Markets will focus on whether trimmed‑mean and services inflation components show further moderation.

Persistent strength in non‑tradables or wage‑related sectors could reinforce expectations for additional tightening later in Q1, while a softer headline would support the view that policy rates have peaked.

Market sensitivities‍

A stronger‑than‑expected CPI print would likely lift front‑end yields and support the AUD, while a downside surprise could weigh on the currency and flatten the yield curve.

Equity sentiment may diverge and financials could find relief from a pause bias, whereas rate‑sensitive sectors like real estate and consumer discretionary would benefit most from a cooler inflation read.

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Japan: Q4 GDP

Japan’s Q4 GDP release will be a key reference point for how firmly the recovery is progressing after recent quarters of uneven growth momentum. Arriving ahead of the Tokyo CPI print, it helps shape expectations for domestic demand, external trade performance, and how much scope policymakers have to adjust their stance without derailing activity.

Key dates

• Q4 GDP: 11:50 pm, 15 February (GMT)/ 10:50 am, 16 February (AEDT)

What markets look for

Investors pay close attention to the balance between consumption, business investment, and net exports to judge whether growth is broad‑based or narrowly supported.

A stronger‑than‑expected print tends to reinforce confidence in Japan’s expansion story, while a weaker outcome can revive concerns about stagnation and delay expectations for any meaningful policy shift.

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Japan: Tokyo CPI

Tokyo’s latest inflation reading shows headline CPI easing to 1.5% year‑on‑year in January from 2.0% in December 2025, dipping further below the recent peaks seen during the post‑pandemic upswing.

The CPI release offers one of the timeliest reads on Japan’s inflation pulse and is closely watched as a lead indicator for nationwide price trends.

Coming late in the month, it serves as a check on whether the recent inflation upswing is sustaining at levels consistent with policymakers’ many objectives.

• Tokyo CPI: 11:30 pm, 26 February (GMT)/ 10:30 am, 27 February (AEDT)

What markets look for

Attention centres on core measures that strip out volatile components, alongside services prices, to see whether underlying inflation is holding near target or drifting lower.

A firmer profile strengthens the case that Japan is exiting its low‑inflation regime, while softer readings suggest that price pressures remain fragile and dependent on external factors.

Market sensitivities

A hotter‑than‑expected Tokyo CPI print can push Japanese yields higher and lend support to the yen, often translating into pressure on exporter‑heavy equity names.

Conversely, a softer outcome tends to ease yield pressures, weaken the yen, and provide some relief to equity sectors that benefit from a more accommodative policy backdrop.

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China

China’s February macro calendar is structurally lighter due to Spring Festival timing.

The National Bureau of Statistics of China notes that some releases are adjusted around Spring Festival timing, with the February PMI scheduled for early March leaving markets without major domestic data anchors for much of the month.

Key dates

• Spring Festival: 17 February to 3 March

What markets look for

Markets turn their focus to policy signals out of Beijing — think targeted stimulus or liquidity injections, as well as shifts in funding conditions and flows responding to global risk sentiment or USD moves.

Trade and tariff rhetoric, or surprise consumption measures like expanded trade-in subsidies and festive spending incentives recently flagged by the Ministry of Commerce, often spark sharper reactions than the usual data releases.

Market sensitivities

CNH and CNY pairs turn more reactive to USD flows and external headlines, often amplifying volatility in regional equities, commodity currencies like AUD, and China-exposed EM assets.

Holiday-thinned liquidity elevates headline risk, particularly in materials (iron ore, copper), tech hardware supply chains, and regional financials, where policy surprises or US tariff updates can trigger 1–2% daily index swings.

Expected earnings date: Wednesday, 4 February 2026 (US, after market close) / ~8:00 am, Thursday, 5 February 2026 (AEDT)

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Alphabet’s earnings provide insight into global digital advertising demand, enterprise cloud spending, and broader technology-sector investment trends. 

As Google Search and YouTube are widely used by both consumers and businesses, results are often used as one input when assessing online activity and corporate marketing budgets, alongside other indicators. 

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Key areas in focus

Search

Search advertising remains Alphabet’s largest revenue driver. Markets are likely to focus on ad growth rates, pricing metrics such as cost-per-click, and overall advertiser demand across sectors such as retail, travel, and small-to-medium businesses.

YouTube

YouTube contributes to both advertising and subscription revenue. Markets commonly monitor advertising momentum, engagement trends, and monetisation developments as indicators of digital media conditions and brand spending.  

Google Cloud

Sustained Cloud profitability is often discussed as a factor that may influence longer-term earnings expectations, though outcomes remain uncertain. Markets are expected to focus on revenue growth, enterprise adoption trends, and operating margins. 

Other bets

Initiatives such as autonomous driving and life sciences, while typically smaller contributors to revenue, markets may still watch spending levels and progress updates as indicators of capital allocation and cost discipline. 

Cost and margin framework

Management has previously flagged elevated capex tied to AI infrastructure, including data centres, specialised chips, and computing capacity. Traffic acquisition costs, staffing levels, and infrastructure expansion are also key variables influencing profitability. 

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What happened last quarter

Alphabet’s most recent quarterly update highlighted advertising trends, Cloud profitability, and continued increases in capex to support AI initiatives. 

Management commentary has indicated that infrastructure spending is intended to support long-term competitiveness, while the market continues to assess the near-term margin trade-offs.  

Last earnings key highlights

For reported figures and segment detail from the most recent quarter, refer to Alphabet’s latest earnings release materials, including revenue, earnings per share (EPS), Services mix, Cloud operating income, and capex commentary. 

• Revenue: US$102.35 billion
• EPS: US$2.87
• Operating income: US$31.23 billion
• Services revenue: US$87.05 billion
• Cloud revenue: US$15.16 billion

Google Services revenues and operating income Q3 2025 | Alphabet earnings release

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What’s expected this quarter

Bloomberg consensus estimates moderate year-on-year (YoY) revenue growth and higher EPS versus the prior-year quarter, with ongoing focus on operating margins given AI-related investment. 

Bloomberg consensus reference points: 

• EPS: low-to-mid US$2 range
• Revenue: high US$80 billion to low US$90 billion range
• Capex: expected to remain elevated

*All above points observed as of 31 January 2026.

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Market-implied expectations

Listed options implied an indicative expected move of around ±4% to ±6% over the relevant near-dated expiry window. Movements derived from option prices observed at 11:00 am AEDT, 2 February 2026.

These are market-implied estimates and may change. Actual post-earnings price moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian market participants

Alphabet’s earnings can influence near-term sentiment across major US equity indices, particularly Nasdaq-linked products, with potential spillover into the Asia session following the release.

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Important risk note

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.

Global markets enter a catalyst-dense week where multiple central bank decisions, ongoing US earnings, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision may help shape near-term direction.

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• RBA rate decision: Market pricing currently implies a higher probability of a Target Cash Rate increase.
• Global central banks: The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) both communicate within the same week, creating the potential for policy cross-currents.
• US earnings: The earnings cycle continues with Alphabet and Amazon reporting this week.
• Gold: Trading near elevated levels amid macro uncertainty and shifting rate expectations.

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RBA rate decision

• RBA decision Tuesday, 3 February, 2:30 pm (AEDT)
• RBA media conference: Tuesday, 3 February, 3:30 pm (AEDT)

A 67% likelihood of a rate rise is suggested on the RBA rate-tracker within the futures pricing framework, indicating a market-implied probability of a move. 

Market impact

• AUD pairs may respond quickly to any repricing of the rate path.
• Rate-sensitive equity sectors could see rotation.
• Government bond yields may adjust if expectations shift.

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ECB and BoE of England

Key decision timing

• ECB monetary policy meeting: 4–5 February
• BoE announcement: Thursday, 5 February

When several major central banks communicate within the same window, markets often focus on forward guidance as much as the decisions themselves.

Market impact

• EUR and GBP volatility may increase around policy communication.
• Relative yield expectations could influence capital flows.
• Equity sentiment may respond to shifts in liquidity assumptions.

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US earnings continue

The earnings cycle remains active, with investors typically focusing on guidance, margins, and capital expenditure alongside headline results. 

After an extended equity advance, consistent outcomes may help stabilise sentiment, while disappointments can influence short-term positioning.

Scheduled earnings

• Walt Disney: Monday, 2 February (US time)/ Tuesday, 3 February (AEDT)
• Palantir Technologies: Monday, 2 February (US time)/ Tuesday, 3 February (AEDT)
• Advanced Micro Devices: Tuesday, 3 February (US time)/ Wednesday, 4 February (AEDT)
• PayPal: Tuesday, 3 February (US time, after market close)/ Wednesday, 4 February (AEDT)
• Alphabet: Wednesday, 4 February (US time, after market close)/ Thursday,5 February (AEDT)
• Amazon: Thursday, 5 February (US time, after market close)/ Friday, 6 February (AEDT)

Additional notable reporters across the week include Eli Lilly, PepsiCo, Qualcomm, Ford, and Roblox. 

*All above dates observed as of 30 January 2026; dates subject to change.

Market impact

• Index moves may hinge on guidance durability across companies.
• Volatility may cluster around major releases.
• First reporters in each sector may influence other companies yet to report.

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Why gold remains in focus

Gold has traded near elevated levels amid macro uncertainty and shifting rate expectations. For many traders, strength in gold is sometimes associated with defensive positioning, though gold prices can be volatile and can fall. 

The US dollar, Treasury yield movements and geopolitical narrative often influence short-term direction.

Market impact

• Continued strength may suggest some investors are leaning toward defensive positioning.
• USD and sovereign yield movements often influence short-term direction.
• After a strong advance, periods of consolidation or profit-taking are common.

Expected earnings date: Thursday, 5 February 2026 (US, after market close)/early Friday, 6 February 2026

Amazon’s earnings provide insight into global consumer spending trends, cloud infrastructure demand, and the monetisation of its ecosystem across retail, advertising, and subscription services.

Focus is expected to remain on performance across key business areas, along with commentary on cost efficiency, capital expenditure, and AI-related investments, including data centre expansion. 

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Key areas in focus

Online stores and third-party services

Amazon’s core retail business remains sensitive to discretionary consumer demand, particularly through the December-quarter holiday period. Markets are likely to focus on revenue growth and margins across both first-party retail and third-party seller services. Cost pressures will also be evaluated. 

AWS (Amazon Web Services)

AWS is a key earnings driver. Investors are likely to focus on revenue growth rates, margin trends, and indications around enterprise cloud spending. AI workloads will also be noteworthy. Any commentary on capacity expansion and capex is likely to be closely watched.  

Advertising services

Amazon’s advertising business has become an increasingly important profit contributor. Markets are likely to assess growth momentum, advertiser demand, and how advertising integrates across Amazon’s retail and Prime ecosystems.  

Subscription services (including Prime)

Subscription revenue includes Prime memberships and related digital services. Investors may watch engagement, pricing dynamics, and retention trends as indicators of ecosystem strength. 

Cost and margin framework

Management has previously emphasised the need for cost discipline across fulfilment, logistics, and corporate expenses. Reported operating margins and any updates on efficiency gains or reinvestment priorities across key business services will be of interest. 

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What happened last quarter

Amazon’s most recent quarterly update reported revenue growth and operating income outcomes, with AWS and advertising referenced as key contributors, alongside ongoing cost-control measures across the retail business. 

The prior update also included discussion relevant to investment priorities in cloud and AI infrastructure, which continue to influence market expectations. 

Last earnings key highlights

• Revenue: US$180.2 billion 
• Earnings per share (EPS): US$1.95 (diluted) 
• AWS revenue: US$33.0 billion 
• Advertising services revenue: US$17.7 billion 
• Operating income: US$17.4 billion 

How the market reacted last time

Amazon shares moved higher in after-hours trading following the previous release, based on reporting at the time. 

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What’s expected this quarter

Bloomberg consensus estimates point to year-on-year EPS growth for the quarter ended December 2025, with markets focused on the revenue outcome, operating margins, and AWS performance, given the importance of the December quarter (Q4) to Amazon’s earnings profile. 

Bloomberg consensus reference points (January 2026):

• EPS: about US$1.60 
• Revenue: about US$170 billion 
• Full-year FY2026 EPS: about US$5.10 

*All above points observed as of 27 January 2026.

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Expectations

Market sentiment around Amazon may be sensitive to any disappointment in AWS growth, operating margins, or December-quarter (Q4 2025) retail performance, given the stock’s large index weighting within major US equity indices and its role in these areas. 

Listed options were pricing an indicative move of around ±4% to ±5% based on near-dated, at-the-money options-implied expected move estimates observed on Barchart at 11:00 am AEDT, 28 January 2026. 

Implied volatility was approximately 32% annualised at that time. 

These are market-implied estimates (not a forecast) and may change. Actual post-earnings price moves can be larger or smaller.

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What this means for Australian investors

Amazon’s earnings can influence near-term sentiment across major US equity indices, with potential spillover into the Asia session following the release. It may also influence sentiment towards ASX-listed companies with significant online sales exposure.

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Important risk note 

Immediately after the US close and into the early Asia session, Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures and related CFD pricing can reflect thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and sharper repricing around new information. 

Such an environment can increase gap risk and execution uncertainty relative to regular-hours conditions.