Trading Share CFDs gives you exposure to the movement of underlying shares. There are a few issues that are specific to Share CFDs and differ from for example trading Forex or commodity CFDS. One of these issues is that of company dividends.
This article aims to clarify the potential impact of dividends of the CFD trader. How do dividends work? One of the attractive things as a shareholder is the receipt of company dividends.
Many Australian companies pay such dividends twice a year, calculated at X cents/per share multiplied by the number of shares held. The key date in respect of dividend entitlement is the ex-dividend date, with eligibility for the dividend being dependent upon you holding a position in that share before trading commencing on the “ex-dividend” date. These dates, and the dividend amount per share, are pre-determined by the company and are made available in the public domain (usually confirmed in company reports) and are available across many financial websites.
Also, important to understand is this dividend is “priced in” to the share already the underlying share price is expected to open at closing price minus the dividend paid (of course there are other factors pre-open e.g., economic news overnight, which will also impact but in this article we are focusing on the dividend impact). Hence if the dividend per share is 20c then we would expect the underlying share to open 20 cents lower. CFDs and dividends As a CFD trader, you do not own the underlying asset (in this case the shares), rather you have a contract based on the movement of such and hence you will not be able to receive any benefits of “franking credits’ for tax purposes.
However, there is an adjustment made on your CFD account position relating to dividend. Whether this adjustment is shown as a credit or a debit will be dependent on the direction of your trade. Long trades will attract a credit and short trades a debit adjustment.
A dividend trading strategy There are some traders of shares, options and CFDs that look to develop a specific trading strategy for dividends and CFDs. Generally, this involves entering a long position prior to the ex-dividend date and subsequently selling afterwards looking for either a small drop less than the dividend adjustment or a recovery or greater move higher than the price prior to the ex-dividend date. Theoretically, the reverse could also be the case in that a short trade is entered, with the perception that many will sell after the ex-dividend date, once a dividend has been received, to the extent that this drop will exceed the dividend adjusted debit to the CFD position.
In either case, if you are considering these somewhat advanced strategies, logically you have tested a system which not only identifies potential situations but guides your entry and exit timing and decision-making. Further discussion on this may be included in a further article. We trust that has clarified the dividend treatment of Share CFDs and of course please contact our team with any further questions you may have, or if learning to trade share CFDs could be for you.
By
Mike Smith
Mike Smith (MSc, PGdipEd)
Client Education and Training
The information provided is of general nature only and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on any information provided, you should consider whether the information is suitable for you and your personal circumstances and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. All opinions, conclusions, forecasts or recommendations are reasonably held at the time of compilation but are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Go Markets Pty Ltd, ABN 85 081 864 039, AFSL 254963 is a CFD issuer, and trading carries significant risks and is not suitable for everyone. You do not own or have any interest in the rights to the underlying assets. You should consider the appropriateness by reviewing our TMD, FSG, PDS and other CFD legal documents to ensure you understand the risks before you invest in CFDs. These documents are available here.
Last year was the year of the split. Tech titans like Nvidia, Broadcom, and MicroStrategy all executed 10-for-1 stock splits that sent retail investors (rightly or wrongly) into a buying frenzy.
But despite multiple major stocks climbing to record-high levels this year — Netflix $1,200, Meta $760, and AutoZone $4,200 — we have yet to see any significant split action in 2025.
Top Stock Splits 2024
Why Companies Split Their Stock
A stock split is financial engineering. It makes individual shares more affordable without changing the company's underlying value.
When a company executes a 4-for-1 split, shareholders receive four shares for every one they previously owned, while the stock price drops to one-quarter of its pre-split level. It doesn’t change the overall market capitalisation of the company or anything from a foundational value perspective.
However, it can have some psychological benefits and add flexibility for the company, which can often be enough for markets to rally around it.
Companies typically split their stock for a few key reasons:
Accessibility: High stock prices can deter smaller investors who prefer to buy full shares rather than fractions. A $1,000 stock becomes more psychologically appealing at $100 after a 10-for-1 split.
Liquidity: For the same psychological reasons, lower prices often increase trading volume, and the higher liquidity makes the stock even more appealing for further retail investments and lower-risk traders.
Employee compensation: Splits give greater flexibility when granting employees shares through stock option programs.
Market inclusion: Some indices, particularly the Dow Jones, favour companies with more moderate share prices.
Stock Splits So Far in 2025
Although at a far more measured pace than we saw in 2024, this year has seen some split activity, especially from outside the tech sector. Four prominent non-tech companies have completed forward splits so far in 2025:
Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE): Announced a 10-for-1 split
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY): Completed a 15-for-1 split
Interactive Brokers (IBKR): Executed a 4-for-1 split in June
Fastenal (FAST): Implemented a 2-for-1 split
However, the tech sector, which dominated split headlines in 2024, has been notably quiet this year.
Next Top Stock Split Candidates
1. Netflix (NFLX) - $1,200+ Per Share
Netflix is the most likely candidate for a 2025 stock split. The company's share price pushed through the $1,200 barrier for the first time following the release of positive financial results for H1 2025.
Netflix has conducted two stock splits in the past: a 2-for-1 stock split in 2004, and a 7-for-1 stock split in 2015 when its price hit $650 per share — almost half of what it is currently.
Netflix reported 18.9 million new subscribers during Q4 2024 (significantly more than the 8.2 million Wall Street forecast), and its advertising revenue is also expected to double by the end of 2025.If its momentum continues, Netflix executing a split before the end of the year is highly likely.
2. Meta Platforms (META) - $760+ Per Share
Meta is the only member of the Magnificent Seven stocks to never carry out a split. META currency trades at over $760 — a threshold where many companies regularly consider splitting.
Meta's winning streak over the past year drove its shares to an all-time high of $790 in August, and it is the top performer in 2025 among the Magnificent Seven.
Meta posted earnings beats of $47.5 billion in revenue in July, well above the $44.83 billion expectation, with earnings per share hitting $7.14 compared to the expected $5.89.
YTD relative performance of the Magnificent Seven stocks
There is high speculation that the company could announce its first-ever split before the end of 2025. Its heavy AI spending, including raising 2025 AI expenditures to $66-72 billion, shows Meta’s confidence in its trajectory and would justify a stock split within the next few months.
3. Microsoft (MSFT) - $510 + Per Share
Microsoft currently trades around $510 per share. Its all-time high of $555.45 per share came in July 2025, driven by AI growth and cloud dominance.
Microsoft has executed nine stock splits since going public in 1986, with the most recent occurring in 2003, when shares traded around $48.The 22-year gap since the last split is the longest drought in the company's history, with all previous splits occurring below $200 per share.
History of Microsoft stock splits
Microsoft is one of only two stocks in the price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average trading above $500, alongside Goldman Sachs.
The Dow's price-weighted structure means higher-priced stocks have disproportionate influence on the index, creating pressure from S&P Dow Jones Indices to maintain balance.
There is also a competitive precedent for Microsoft to split. Its long-time rival, Apple, executed a split in 2020 when its stock was in the $450 range. And other tech giants, such as Nvidia and Broadcom, have also recently split their stocks, setting a strong precedent for Microsoft to follow.
4. Costco Wholesale (COST) - $960+ Per Share
Costco's consistent growth and near $1000 per share price make it a likely split candidate in the next 6-12 months. The company has split its stock multiple times in the past, but its last split was over 25 years ago in 2000. The stock is up 2,780% since then.
Costco’s reported Membership fee revenue increased 10% to $5.3 billion from June 2024 to May 2025, and its overall revenue of $268.78 billion is up 5.94% during the same period.
Costco’s Operating Income 2015-2024
Despite the positive numbers, Costco’s management has remained noncommittal when asked about split plans, making timing uncertain despite the strong financial case.
5. AutoZone (AZO) - $4,230+ Per Share
AutoZone's current stock price ironically exceeds the cost of many used cars for which it sells parts.
Despite its massive per-share price, AutoZone has avoided splitting since 1994. The company's share buyback programs have nearly halved the share count in the past ten years, pushing the price higher.
This massive share price alone puts it firmly on the upcoming split candidate list. However, its history shows that they often delay and defy the split norm.
Top stock split candidates 2025-2026
Stock Splits Are a Result, Not a Cause
Stock splits generate excitement, but they don’t change a business's fundamental value or the total value of the shares owned by shareholders.
Although research suggests split stocks often outperform broader markets in the 12 months following the announcement, this is generally a correlation, not a causation.
It is the strong business fundamentals that justified the split in the first place that usually lead to market outperformance, rather than the split itself. Anyone considering these stocks should focus on business fundamentals rather than split speculation.
That said, stock splits can generate hype and serve as catalysts for broader market attention. If the marketing strategy around the split is done well, it can help the company generate more interest from retail investors than otherwise anticipated.
Looking Ahead
2025 has seen fewer tech company stock splits than 2024, setting the stage for major announcements in the coming months. Companies like Netflix and Meta face increasing pressure to make their shares more accessible as prices reach new highs.
The next wave of stock splits will likely come from these established leaders whose strong business performance has driven their share prices to split-warranting levels.
Whether these companies ultimately decide to split their stocks remains to be seen, but the fundamental case for each remains strong regardless of corporate actions.
Most people think Nvidia got lucky with AI. They made chips that were good for gaming, and it turned out those same chips were good for machine learning.But that's not what happened at all…What actually happened reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of technology markets, and why investors often misread them.
Nvidia’s data center revenue flipped gaming in 2023
Why Markets Misread Platform Plays
Markets consistently undervalue platform investments while they're being made, then overvalue them once they succeed. Platform plays often appear to be terrible business decisions for years before they become obviously valuable.CUDA — Nvidia's software platform that made it possible to harness graphics card compute power for general-purpose usage — is the perfect example of this.When Nvidia was spending heavily on CUDA in the mid-2000s, the market saw it as an expensive distraction from its core graphics business.The investment made no sense. They were giving away free software to sell hardware, in an industry where hardware margins were already under pressure.Markets tend to price such technology investments through the lens of existing applications rather than potential ones. They can see the current build cost but fail to factor in the potential future value.
The Economics of Platform Capture
Technology markets have the somewhat unique capacity to shift from competing products to competing ecosystems.If this shift from product to ecosystem wars occurs, traditional competitive analysis can become almost useless.In a product market, a 10% advantage might translate to a 10% market share gain. In an ecosystem market, a 10% advantage can translate to a 90% market share, due to network effects and switching costs.This is why established companies with superior resources often lose to platform challengers. AMD and Intel both had as much (or more) money and engineering talent as Nvidia during its CUDA development years. But they were competing in the wrong game. They were optimizing for product performance while Nvidia was building ecosystem lock-in.
The Platform Investment Paradox
Platform investments create a paradox for public markets. The companies that make the biggest platform bets often see their stock prices suffer during the investment phase.Product investments have visible, measurable returns that markets can model. Platform investments have uncertain returns that depend on market timing and adoption patterns that are impossible to predict.This is why markets consistently undervalue platform companies during their growth phase. Traditional financial metrics capture the cost of platform investment but miss the value creation occurring in the ecosystem.By the time platform value becomes visible in financial results, the strategic opportunity has usually already passed. The companies that capture platform markets are typically those that invest before the value is measurable, not after it becomes obvious.
Nvidia’s 25-year Annual revenue growth - image by Motley Fool
Ecosystem Network Effect
Every developer who learns CUDA makes the Nvidia ecosystem more valuable. Every model trained on Nvidia infrastructure increases switching costs for the entire AI market.Gaining a competitive advantage in platform markets is more about ecosystem momentum than building superior products. The platform that attracts the most developers and creates the most applications becomes increasingly difficult to displace.Markets often misinterpret this momentum as a temporary competitive advantage rather than recognizing it as a structural shift in the market. They keep expecting "competition" to erode platform dominance, not realizing that successful platforms tend to make competition irrelevant.
What This Means for Market Analysis
The Nvidia pattern suggests that technology market analysis needs to focus more on ecosystem dynamics and less on product comparisons. The companies that will dominate the next wave of technology markets are likely building platforms today for applications that don't yet exist at scale.This requires looking beyond current revenue and margins to understand what infrastructure is being built for the future. The most important question isn't whether a company has the best current product, but whether they're creating the ecosystem that future applications will be built on.Of course, such companies are unlikely to achieve the heights of Nvidia, but the ones that find success will likely follow the same pattern — years of patient platform building followed by explosive ecosystem capture when the market inflection point arrives.Trade Nvidia and thousands of other Share CFDs on GO Markets — starting from just US$0.02 per share with no monthly data fee.
Ignoring corporate actions is a common pitfall many CFD traders fall into. Longing or shorting the underlying share is rooted in technical and fundamental analysis, and simple dividend payouts or buybacks feel unimportant to the trading strategy.However, even though you’re trading an instrument whose value is determined by the movement of an underlying asset, rather than the asset itself, these events can still impact your account balance.It is vital to stay informed of the corporate actions of the underlying share and have a plan for the way you position trades and the length of time you consider holding a position.
Company Dividends
A dividend is the distribution of a portion of a company’s profits to its shareholders. It’s one of the primary ways companies reward investors and signals that the company is in good financial health.
Why Companies Do It:
To share profits with investors
To signal stability or maturity
To attract dividend-focused shareholders
Example:
Woolworths declares a $1 dividend. If you’re long 100 CFDs, you get a $100 credit. If short, you lose $100 on the ex-div date.
CFD Implications:
Long Position: You receive a credit into your account on the ex-dividend date Short Position: Your account is debited the equivalent value.
Market Reaction:
Share prices typically drop by the dividend amount on the ex-div date on open.
Stock Splits and Reverse Splits
A stock split increases the number of shares and reduces the price per share, retaining the existing total market value e.g., your shares may become half the price but you will have double the holding. A reverse split (or consolidation) does the opposite so reducing the number of shares so increasing the price per share.
Why Companies Do It:
Stock splits make high-priced shares more affordable and attractive to retail investors and increase day-to-day interest.
Reverse splits are less common but may often be used to lift a stock’s price to improve the perceived positive image of the company.
Example:
Tesla executed a 5-for-1 split in 2020. Holding 100 CFDs became 500 CFDs at 1/5th the original price.
CFD Implications:
Your CFD position is automatically adjusted to reflect the new ratio. Total value remains unchanged.
Market Reaction:
Splits can signal growth confidence and attract traders, often leading to short-term rallies. Reverse splits may be seen as a red flag and lead to selling pressure.
Rights Issue
A rights issue allows current shareholders to buy extra shares, usually at a discount to current share price to raise capital. Market response to a right issue will be dependent on the reason for this action and the overall perception as to whether it will benefit the company in the longer term.
Why Companies Do It:
To fund growth projects, reduce debt, or raise liquidity
A sign the company is facing financing pressure
Example:
Qantas may offer a 1-for-5 rights issue at a 20% discount to raise capital to enable the company to buy new aircraft. CFD holders do not get this entitlement.
CFD Implications:
You do not receive rights or participate in the offer. No direct adjustment is made to your CFD position.
Market Reaction:
May result in a price drop due to dilution. However, if the capital raise strengthens the company, prices may recover over time.
Share Buybacks
A company buys back its own shares from the market, reducing the total number in circulation.
Why Companies Do It:
To return value to shareholders
To improve metrics like earnings per share (EPS)
To signal that management believes the stock is undervalued
Example:
BHP announces a $2 billion buyback. As shares are repurchased, the price may gradually rise due to the reduced supply of shares available to trade on the market.
CFD Implications:
There is no action on any CFD holding in the relevant company, so there is no account adjustment.
Market Reaction:
Often seen as mildly bullish, especially for undervalued companies. However, buybacks funded by debt may raise concerns.
Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A)
A merger or acquisition occurs when one company absorbs or combines with another. This may ultimately lead to a change in share structure or ticker symbol if it is approved by the shareholders of the company. There is often a situation where a proposal is presented to the company that results in an elevated share price even before any decision is made.
Why Companies Do It:
To expand market share, gain assets, or eliminate competition
Often part of a strategic growth plan
Example:
If Company A merges with Company B and issues 1 new share for every 2 held, your 200 CFDs in A would convert into 100 CFDs in the new entity.
CFD Implications:
Your existing CFD position is converted into the new merged entity (if applicable) using the agreed share ratio.
Market Reaction:
Target companies often rally when takeover bids emerge, while acquirers may see mixed reactions — depending on perceived value or cost of the deal.
Trading Halts
A pause in trading that is imposed by the exchange usually often due to a pending news release from the company about a new, unexpected corporate action or less commonly some regulatory concerns pending investigation.
Why Companies May Be Halted:
Awaiting a price-sensitive announcement
Pending merger, legal issue, or earnings release
Example:
If a US biotech stock CFD is halted for an FDA ruling, you’ll remain in your position until the underlying reopens.
CFD Implications:
If the stock is halted, your CFD is also paused. You cannot open or close positions until trading resumes (there will often be a second release informing when the stock is likely to reopen for trading).
Market Reaction:
Trading halts usually precede large price moves — often gaps and reopens — so significant gains or losses may be the result.
Summary
Just because you’re trading Share CFDs doesn’t mean you are insulated from corporate actions. In fact, understanding their timing (although many are unpredictable) and the possible impact of your holding is essential for planning trades and managing actual and potential account value adjustments.It is prudent to have access to an economic calendar as part of your routine and ensure you check out earnings and ex-dividend dates of any stock CFD you hold or are considering for an entry.Whether it’s a dividend or a major structural event like a merger, these changes can and will shift market sentiment towards the underlying stock. Make sure you stay aware of what is happening and what might happen next. The GO Market support team will always be there to assist with any questions you have before or after any corporate action.
As geopolitical narratives continue to simmer, US and European markets move into the rest of the week with three dominant drivers: US inflation data, the start of US earnings season, and an unusual Fed-independence headline risk after the DOJ subpoenaed the Federal Reserve.
Quick facts:
US consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) are the key macro releases and are likely to impact the US dollar (USD) and other asset classes if there is a significant move from expectations.
JPMorgan reports Tuesday, with other major US banks through the week, as the Q4 reporting season gets underway.
Reporting around DOJ action involving the Fed, and Chair Powell’s prior testimony, created early market volatility on Monday, with markets sensitive to anything that may be perceived as undermining Fed independence.
President Trump announced this morning that any country doing business with Iran will face a 25% tariff on all business with the US, effective immediately.
Europe’s production and growth updates, including Eurozone industrial production and UK monthly GDP and trade data, are later in the week.
United States: CPI, Fed path, DOJ and Fed headline risk, and banks leading earnings
What to watch:
The US is carrying the highest event density in global data releases this week. CPI and PPI will both be watched for moves away from expectations.
Any meaningful surprise can shift Fed policy expectations. Markets are currently pricing a lower likelihood of a March rate cut (under 30%) than this time last week, based on fed funds futures probabilities tracked by CME FedWatch.
Bank earnings may set the tone for the reporting season as a whole. Forward guidance is likely to be as important as Q4 performance, with valuations thought to be high after another record close in the S&P 500 overnight.
Key releases and events:
Tue 13 Jan (Wed am AEDT): CPI (Dec) (high sensitivity)
Tue 13 Jan (Wed am AEDT): JPMorgan earnings before market open (high sensitivity for banks and risk tone)
Wed to Thu: additional large-bank earnings cluster (high sensitivity for financials sentiment)
Wed 14 Jan (Thu am AEDT): US PPI
Thu 15 Jan (Fri am AEDT): US weekly unemployment
Throughout the week: Fed member speeches
How markets may respond:
S&P 500 and US risk tone: US indices are near record levels. The S&P 500 closed at 6,977.27 on Monday. Hotter-than-expected inflation can pressure growth and small-cap equities in particular, and weigh on the market broadly. Softer inflation can support further risk-on behaviour.
USD: Inflation data is the obvious driver this week for the greenback, but any continuation of DOJ and Fed developments, or geopolitical escalation, may introduce additional USD influences.
With the USD testing the highest levels seen in a month, followed by some light selling yesterday, some volatility looks likely. Gold has also been bid as a potential safety trade and hit fresh highs in the latest session, suggesting demand for defensive exposure remains present.
Earnings (banks): In a market already priced near highs, results can still create volatility if they are not accompanied by supportive earnings per share (EPS), revenue and forward guidance. Financials will likely see the first-order response, but any early pattern in results and guidance can influence the broader market beyond the first few days.
UK and Eurozone: growth data influence amid continuing equity strength
What to watch:
In a week where Europe may be driven primarily by events in the US and geopolitical narrative, the Eurozone industrial production print is still a noteworthy local release.
In the UK, monthly GDP and trade numbers on Thursday may influence both the FTSE 100 and the pound, particularly if there is any meaningful surprise.
Key releases and events:
Eurozone
Wed 14 Jan: Eurozone industrial production (Nov 2025) (medium sensitivity for cyclical sectors)
UK
Thu 15 Jan: GDP monthly estimate (Nov 2025) (high sensitivity for GBP and UK rate expectations)
Thu 15 Jan: UK trade (Nov 2025) (low to medium sensitivity)
How markets may respond:
EUR spillover from the US: Despite light Eurozone data, the US response is likely to matter most this week, with the US dollar index a major driver of broader G10 FX direction.
DAX (DE40): Germany’s index is also trading at or near record levels and closed at 25,405 on Monday. (2) If the index is extended, it may react more to global rate moves and shifts in perceived risk.
FTSE 100 and GBP: The FTSE hit a new high in the overnight session, driven particularly by materials and mining stocks. (5) Any GDP surprise can re-price GBP and UK equities quickly in an environment where growth concerns persist.
Wed 14 Jan: US CPI, US bank earnings kick-off (notably JPMorgan)
Wed 14 Jan: Eurozone industrial production (Nov 2025)
Thu 15 Jan: UK monthly GDP (Nov 2025) and UK trade (Nov 2025), US bank earnings continue
Fri 16 Jan: US weekly unemployment, US bank earnings continue
Bottom line
If US CPI surprises higher, markets may lean toward higher-for-longer interest rate pricing, which can pressure equity multiples and lift rates volatility.
If bank earnings are solid but guidance is cautious, equities can still see two-way swings given index levels near records and high valuations.
If DOJ and Fed headlines escalate, they may override normal data reactions to some degree. That could increase demand for perceived safe havens such as gold and lift FX volatility.
For Europe, Eurozone production (Wed) and UK GDP and trade (Thu) are the key local data. The region is still likely to trade primarily off US outcomes and broader risk sentiment.
Asia-Pacific markets start the week with sentiment shaped by China’s mid-week trade data, USDJPY (USD/JPY) as Japan’s key volatility channel, and offshore reporting influencing Australian equities. With a light domestic data calendar, global events may do most of the work on risk appetite.
Quick facts:
China's mid-week trade data is the primary regional risk event, with imports monitored for signs of domestic demand stability.
USD/JPY remains the key volatility channel, which may influence Nikkei performance.
Australian equities lack major domestic catalysts, leaving the ASX and AUD direction sensitive to China outcomes, geopolitics and US bank earnings.
This week’s Asia-Pacific focus is less about local policy and more about the transmission channels that typically set the tone.
For China, trade data may shape the growth narrative.
For Japan, the USD/JPY direction may influence equity momentum.
For Australia, offshore earnings, commodities and geopolitics may dominate in the absence of major domestic catalysts.
China: Shanghai may be influenced by trade data
What to watch:
With mid-week Chinese trade data, markets may view the release as a gauge of whether policy support is translating into growth activity or slowing any downturn.
Shanghai Composite: Stronger trade data could support sentiment, though the quality and perceived longevity of any improvement may matter. Weak imports would likely be read as continued softness in domestic demand.
Australia (resources and AUD): China trade and credit tone can feed directly into bulk commodity expectations and regional risk appetite, with potential flow-through to ASX miners and AUDUSD (AUD/USD).
With no major policy decision scheduled, and the producer price index (PPI) the main data point, Japan’s influence this week may run primarily through USD/JPY moves after US data releases, and broader geopolitical headlines, particularly as markets reopen after Monday’s public holiday.
Key releases:
Wed 14 Jan: Preliminary machine tool orders, year on year (y/y) (low sensitivity)
Thu 15 Jan: PPI (medium sensitivity)
How markets may respond:
USD/JPY: The pair ended last week around 158, near recent highs. Moves can be volatile; markets will watch whether the pair holds recent strength or retraces, particularly around prior trading ranges.
Nikkei 225: The index hit a record high early last week before a modest two-day pullback, then closed higher on Friday. Equity momentum, often closely tied to FX stability, may be influenced by the strength or otherwise of USD/JPY.
Australia: offshore drivers dominate in a lighter data week
What to watch:
In the absence of significant domestic data releases, Australian markets may be more exposed to external influences. The main themes are China trade data, geopolitics, commodity prices and the start of the US earnings season, with banks in focus.
Thu 15 Jan: Melbourne Institute (MI) inflation expectations (low sensitivity)
How markets may respond:
ASX 200: The index has been consolidating around the 8,700–8,800 area (approx.). Local financial stocks may react to inferences made from US bank earnings. Stocks such as Macquarie Group are typically more sensitive to global market conditions and activity in investment markets, often drawing comparisons with US peers such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM).
AUDUSD (AUD/USD): AUD/USD has pulled back after last week’s gains and is trading near recent highs. Technical commentary is mixed, and price action can change quickly around major offshore events.
South Korea is expecting an interest rate decision on Thursday. Any deviation from market expectations for no change (currently 2.5% per Trading Economics) could create a minor FX ripple in regional currency pairs.
Asia-Pacific calendar:
Mon 12 Jan: Japan public holiday
Tue 13 Jan: Australia consumer sentiment
Wed 14 Jan: China trade balance, exports and imports
Thu 15 Jan: Bank of Korea rate decision; Japan PPI; Australia inflation expectations
Bottom line
If China trade and credit data stabilise, regional equities may move higher, with AUD and ASX resource stocks among the key sensitivity points.
If USD/JPY extends higher, the Nikkei may remain supported near highs, though FX volatility risk may increase.
If US bank earnings disappoint, ASX financials could face near-term pressure despite limited domestic data.
Information is accurate as at 23:00 AEDT on 11 January 2026. Economic calendar events, charts and market price data are sourced from TradingView.
So why do Magnificent 7 (Mag 7) earnings matter for Australians? Because the US earnings season is a different sport from Australia, and this is where the scoreboard sits. These seven names do not just report results, they set the tone for the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, and risk appetite more broadly. They often influence index tone, but market moves are not guaranteed and can fade or reverse.
The Aussie edge: time zones, event windows, and what gets priced
For Aussie traders, the challenge is not just timing. It's overnight gaps, liquidity, and AUD/USD currency moves that can amplify or offset the share price reaction.
Most Mag 7 results land after the US close, so the initial move often hits Sydney morning liquidity. Markets may react first to the headline numbers, then again during the call as guidance, margins and capex are digested — but the sequence varies by quarter.
What this guide gives you, company by company
For each company, we map the US Eastern Time (ET) reporting window and the Sydney time window (AEDT), flag whether it is before or after the US close, and narrow the focus to the few drivers that tend to move price.
Source: Adobe Images
Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL)
Apple is a “quality” print until it isn’t. The market doesn’t just ask if Apple beat. It asks whether demand and mix support the next leg.
Reporting window (confirmed)
US reporting time: Thu, 29 Jan 2026 at 5:00 pm ET (after close)
AU reporting time: Fri, 30 Jan 2026 at 9:00 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q1)
Projected consensus earnings per share (EPS): US$2.65
Call focus: iPhone demand and mix, services trajectory, China and FX translation
Translation: Apple “beats” are common. The repricing comes from demand tone and margin language.
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above expectations, but it only really counts if demand still sounds healthy and the gross margin commentary stays straightforward.
A “meet” means results are basically in line, so attention shifts to the call. Investors will focus on iPhone product mix, how fast Services is growing, and whether any specific regions are weakening.
A “miss” often reacts more negatively if it is driven by weaker demand, because the market may treat it as the start of a trend, not a one time issue. You can also see a big price gap right after the report, before the call even starts.
Source: Adobe Images
Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: META)
Meta is expected to report the December quarter, which effectively turns this into a Sydney morning catalyst for Aussie traders. The headline move hits first but the second leg often comes from the call, when guidance and capex ranges get priced.
Reporting window (expected)
US reporting time: Mon, 2 Feb 2026 at 4:05 pm ET (after close)
AU reporting time: Tue, 3 Feb 2026 at 8:05 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q4)
Projected consensus EPS: US$8.29
Projected consensus revenue: US$58.27 bn
Call focus: AI infrastructure capex, Ads demand plus Reels monetisation and Reality Labs losses versus discipline
Translation: Meta can beat the print and still sell off if the Street hears “higher spend, longer payoff.”
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really counts if guidance stays intact and the 2026 capex and expense ranges do not get wider.
A “meet” is close enough that the stock trades the tone of the call: how broad ad demand looks, whether Reels monetisation is improving, and whether spending sounds capped or more open ended.
A “miss” can turn ugly quickly if it comes with weaker ad demand commentary or higher spend bands. With expectations already high, the initial gap can be sharp, and what happens next depends on whether guidance can steady the story.
Source: Adobe Images
Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL)
Alphabet is still an ads engine first, and a Cloud and AI story second. The market wants proof that Cloud profitability and AI spend can coexist without compressing the whole narrative.
Reporting window (confirmed)
US reporting time: Wed, 4 Feb 2026 at 4:00 pm ET (after close)
AU reporting time: Thu, 5 Feb 2026 at 8:00 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q4)
Projected consensus EPS: US$2.59
Projected consensus revenue: TBC
Call focus: Search and YouTube ads pricing and volume, Cloud growth and profitability, AI capex and monetisation signals
Translation: The market forgives a lot if ads are strong and Cloud margins keep improving.
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really matters if ad demand sounds broad and Cloud profitability does not slip while AI spending ramps.
A “meet” puts the call in the driver’s seat, with investors listening for ad pricing trends, YouTube momentum, and whether capex is moving higher.
A “miss” hurts most if it is driven by weaker ads, because then the market starts debating the ad cycle, not just the company.
Source: Adobe Images
Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN)
Amazon is two businesses stapled together in the tape. The market uses AWS to price growth and uses retail margins to price discipline.
Reporting window (expected)
US reporting time: Mon, 2 Feb 2026 at 4:00 pm ET (after close)
AU reporting time: Tue, 3 Feb 2026 at 8:00 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q4)
Prijected consensus EPS: US$1.97
Projected consensus revenue: US$211.33 bn
Call focus: AWS growth and margins, retail profitability/fulfilment efficiency, advertising momentum, capex tone
Translation: AWS decides the direction. Retail decides the confidence.
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really matters if AWS holds steady or speeds up again and management does not worry the Street with spending plans.
A “meet” puts AWS and margin tone front and centre, and the call does most of the work.
A “miss” usually gets hit hardest when AWS growth slows or operating income guidance disappoints, because that is what can reset the whole valuation debate.
Source: Adobe Images
Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT)
Reporting window (confirmed)
US reporting time: Wed, 28 Jan 2026 at 4:00 pm ET (after close)
AU reporting time: Thu, 29 Jan 2026 at 8:00 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q2)
Projected consensus earnings per share (EPS): US$3.86
Projected consensus revenue: US$80.09 bn
Call focus: Azure growth, AI monetisation (Copilot/attach), capex intensity, and margin trajectory
Translation: This is usually a cloud plus capex trade, not an EPS trade.
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really matters if Azure is holding up and capex does not sound unlimited. Beat plus steady cloud trends and stable margins is the upside script the tape usually rewards.
A “meet” puts the focus on the call, especially Azure growth, commercial bookings tone, and how quickly capex is stepping up.
A “miss” usually gets punished most when cloud growth slows or margins get shaky, because that is the key forward anchor the market leans on.
Source: Adobe Images
NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA)
Nvidia is the season’s last boss. Markets treat it like a read-through on AI capex itself. The print matters, but guidance and gross margin are the real price setters.
Reporting window (confirmed)
US reporting time: Wed, 25 Feb 2026 at 4:20 pm ET (after close)
AU reporting time: Thu, 26 Feb 2026 at 8:20 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q4)
Projected consensus EPS: US$1.45
Projected consensus revenue: US$65.47 bn
Call focus: Data centre demand versus capacity, gross margin trajectory, supply/lead times, next-quarter guide
Translation: Guidance and gross margin commentary often drive the reaction, but outcomes vary.
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really matters if the next quarter outlook confirms demand is still strong and the gross margin message stays solid.
A “meet” means the call becomes the decider, and the stock trades the outlook, margins, and what management says about supply conditions.
A “miss” can gap down fast, especially if it comes with softer forward guidance, because the market may take it as a clue about the broader AI spending cycle.
Source: Adobe Images
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA)
Tesla’s earnings are rarely just about the quarter. The print hits first, but the real repricing usually happens when the call clarifies margins, demand, and the autonomy timeline. For Aussie traders, it’s a Sydney morning catalyst.
Reporting window (confirmed)
US reporting time: Wed, 28 Jan 2026 at 4:05 pm ET (after close)
AU reporting time: Thu, 29 Jan 2026 at 8:05 am AEDT
Quarter snapshot (Q4)
Projected consensus EPS: US$0.44
Projected consensus revenue: US$25.15 bn
Call focus: Autonomy/robotaxi cadence, auto gross margin, pricing/demand and energy storage scale
Translation: Tesla can “beat” and still get sold if margins compress or the roadmap tone shifts.
Earnings expectations and how the market will frame it
A “beat” means EPS and revenue come in above consensus, but it only really matters if the margin story stays intact and management does not add fresh uncertainty around pricing or timing.
A “meet” is close enough that the stock trades the tone of the call, especially on demand, how durable margins look, and progress toward autonomy milestones.
A “miss” gets hit fastest when it comes with weaker margin language or softer demand comments, because the market will assume next quarter looks tougher, not easier.
