Trading Share CFDs gives you exposure to the movement of underlying shares. There are a few issues that are specific to Share CFDs and differ from for example trading Forex or commodity CFDS. One of these issues is that of company dividends.
This article aims to clarify the potential impact of dividends of the CFD trader. How do dividends work? One of the attractive things as a shareholder is the receipt of company dividends.
Many Australian companies pay such dividends twice a year, calculated at X cents/per share multiplied by the number of shares held. The key date in respect of dividend entitlement is the ex-dividend date, with eligibility for the dividend being dependent upon you holding a position in that share before trading commencing on the “ex-dividend” date. These dates, and the dividend amount per share, are pre-determined by the company and are made available in the public domain (usually confirmed in company reports) and are available across many financial websites.
Also, important to understand is this dividend is “priced in” to the share already the underlying share price is expected to open at closing price minus the dividend paid (of course there are other factors pre-open e.g., economic news overnight, which will also impact but in this article we are focusing on the dividend impact). Hence if the dividend per share is 20c then we would expect the underlying share to open 20 cents lower. CFDs and dividends As a CFD trader, you do not own the underlying asset (in this case the shares), rather you have a contract based on the movement of such and hence you will not be able to receive any benefits of “franking credits’ for tax purposes.
However, there is an adjustment made on your CFD account position relating to dividend. Whether this adjustment is shown as a credit or a debit will be dependent on the direction of your trade. Long trades will attract a credit and short trades a debit adjustment.
A dividend trading strategy There are some traders of shares, options and CFDs that look to develop a specific trading strategy for dividends and CFDs. Generally, this involves entering a long position prior to the ex-dividend date and subsequently selling afterwards looking for either a small drop less than the dividend adjustment or a recovery or greater move higher than the price prior to the ex-dividend date. Theoretically, the reverse could also be the case in that a short trade is entered, with the perception that many will sell after the ex-dividend date, once a dividend has been received, to the extent that this drop will exceed the dividend adjusted debit to the CFD position.
In either case, if you are considering these somewhat advanced strategies, logically you have tested a system which not only identifies potential situations but guides your entry and exit timing and decision-making. Further discussion on this may be included in a further article. We trust that has clarified the dividend treatment of Share CFDs and of course please contact our team with any further questions you may have, or if learning to trade share CFDs could be for you.
By
Mike Smith
Mike Smith (MSc, PGdipEd)
Client Education and Training
The information provided is of general nature only and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on any information provided, you should consider whether the information is suitable for you and your personal circumstances and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. All opinions, conclusions, forecasts or recommendations are reasonably held at the time of compilation but are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Go Markets Pty Ltd, ABN 85 081 864 039, AFSL 254963 is a CFD issuer, and trading carries significant risks and is not suitable for everyone. You do not own or have any interest in the rights to the underlying assets. You should consider the appropriateness by reviewing our TMD, FSG, PDS and other CFD legal documents to ensure you understand the risks before you invest in CFDs. These documents are available here.
The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) is one of the world's top 20 exchanges, hosting over 2,000 listed companies worth approximately $2 trillion.
Quick Facts:
The ASX operates as Australia's primary stock exchange, combining market trading, clearinghouse operations, and trade and payment settlement.
It represents roughly 80% of the Australian equity market value through its flagship ASX 200 index.
2,000+ companies and 300+ ETFs are listed on the exchange, spanning from mining giants to tech innovators.
How does the ASX work?
The ASX combines three critical functions in one system.
As a market operator, it provides the electronic platform where buyers and sellers meet. Trading occurs through a sophisticated computer system that matches orders in milliseconds, replacing the traditional floor-based trading that once defined stock exchanges globally.
The exchange also acts as a clearinghouse, ensuring trades settle correctly. When you buy shares, the ASX guarantees the transaction completes, managing the transfer of securities and funds between parties.
Finally, it serves as a payments facilitator, processing the money flows that accompany each trade. This integrated approach reduces settlement risk and keeps the market running smoothly.
What are ASX trading hours?
The ASX operates from 10:00am to 4:00pm Sydney time (AEST/AEDT) on business days, with a pre-open phase from 7:00am.
Stocks open alphabetically in staggered intervals starting at 10:00am, followed by continuous trading until the closing auction at 4:00pm.
The exchange observes Australian public holidays and adjusts for daylight saving time between October and April, which can affect coordination with international markets.
ASX trading hours by time zone:
Phase
Sydney (AEST)
Tokyo (JST)
London (BST)
New York (EDT)
Pre-Open
7:00am - 10:00am
6:00am - 9:00am
10:00pm - 1:00am
5:00pm - 8:00pm*
Normal Trading
10:00am - 4:00pm
9:00am - 3:00pm
1:00am - 7:00am
8:00pm - 2:00am*
Closing Auction
4:00pm - 4:10pm
3:00pm - 3:10pm
7:00am - 7:10am
2:00am - 2:10am
*Previous day. Note: Times shown assume daylight saving time in effect (AEST/BST/EDT). Japan does not observe daylight saving. Time differences vary when regions switch between standard and daylight saving at different dates.
Top ASX Indices
S&P/ASX 200
This is the exchange's flagship index. It tracks the 200 largest companies by market capitalisation and represents approximately 80% of Australia's equity market.
It serves as the primary benchmark for most investors and fund managers and is rebalanced quarterly to ensure it reflects the current market leaders.
The ASX also breaks down into 11 sector-specific indices, allowing investors to track performance in areas like financials, materials, healthcare, and technology.
These indices can help identify which parts of the Australian economy are strengthening or weakening.
ASX sector breakdown as of 31 December 2025. Source: S&P Global
Financials dominates as the largest sector, driven by Commonwealth Bank, NAB, Westpac, and ANZ. These banking giants provide lending, wealth management, and insurance services across Australia.
Materials ranks second, led by mining powerhouses BHP and Rio Tinto. This sector extracts and processes resources, including iron ore, coal, copper, and gold.
Consumer Discretionary includes retailers, media companies, and hospitality groups that benefit when household spending rises.
Industrials encompasses construction firms, airlines, and professional services businesses.
Healthcare features companies like CSL, a global biotech leader, and Cochlear, which produces hearing implants.
Real Estate features property developers and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) that own and manage commercial and residential assets.
Communication Services includes telecommunications providers like Telstra alongside media and entertainment companies.
Energy tracks oil and gas producers (many renewable energy companies typically fall under utilities).
Consumer Staples covers essential goods providers like supermarkets and food producers.
Information Technology includes software developers and IT services firms.
Utilities covers electricity, gas, and water suppliers, including renewable energy.
ASX sector breakdown:
ASX Symbol
Sector
Top Stocks
% of ASX 200
XFJ
Financials
CBA, NAB, ANZ
33.4%
XMJ
Materials
Orica, Amcor, BHP
23.2%
XDJ
Consumer Discretionary
Harvey Norman, Crown
7.4%
XNJ
Industrials
Qantas, Transurban
7.4%
XHJ
Health Care
ResMed, CSL and Cochlear
7.1%
XRE
Real Estate
Mirvac, LendLease, Westfield
6.7%
XTJXIJ
Communication Services
Telstra, Airtasker
3.7%
XEJ
Energy
Santos, Woodside
3.6%
XSJ
Consumer Staples
Woolworths, Westfarmers
3.4%
XIJ
Information Technology
Dicker Data, Xero
2.5%
XUJ
Utilities
AGL, APA Group
1.4%
Data accurate as of 31 December 2025. Source: SP Global
Top ASX companies
Three companies consistently lead the S&P/ASX 200 by market capitalisation.
Commonwealth Bank (Mkt cap: A$259 bln)
Commonwealth Bank holds the top position on the ASX as Australia's biggest lender.
Founded in 1911 and fully privatised by 1996, CBA offers retail banking, business lending, wealth management, and insurance.
Its performance often signals the health of the domestic economy.
BHP Group (Mkt cap: A$241 bln)
BHP Group stands as the world's largest mining company.
Its diversified portfolio spans iron ore, copper, coal, and nickel operations globally.
It serves as a bellwether for Australian commodity markets.
CSL Limited (Mkt cap: A$182 bln)
CSL Limited leads the Australian healthcare sector as a global biotech firm.
Established in 1916, CSL develops treatments for rare diseases and manufactures influenza vaccines.
The company demonstrates Australian innovation competing on the world stage.
The ASX serves as a vital mechanism for capital formation in Australia. It tends to provide price signals that reflect market expectations.
When share prices rise, it suggests optimism about economic conditions. Falling markets may indicate concerns about future growth.
Australian companies raise funds through initial public offerings and follow-on share sales on the ASX, using proceeds to expand operations, fund research, or pay down debt.
Investors in these shares benefit from potential capital gains and dividend income. Many Australians build retirement savings through superannuation funds that invest heavily in ASX-listed companies.
Employment in financial services also depends partly on a healthy stock market. Brokers, analysts, fund managers, and supporting roles exist because of active capital markets.
Key takeaways
The ASX functions as a market operator, clearinghouse, and payments facilitator, providing the infrastructure that enables capital formation and supports retirement savings for millions of Australians.
Its flagship index, the S&P/ASX 200, tracks the 200 largest companies and captures about 80% of market capitalisation, while the All Ordinaries index covers the top 500.
Financials and Materials dominate the exchange, led by Commonwealth Bank, BHP, and CSL, reflecting Australia's strength in banking and resources.
Last year was the year of the split. Tech titans like Nvidia, Broadcom, and MicroStrategy all executed 10-for-1 stock splits that sent retail investors (rightly or wrongly) into a buying frenzy.
But despite multiple major stocks climbing to record-high levels this year — Netflix $1,200, Meta $760, and AutoZone $4,200 — we have yet to see any significant split action in 2025.
Top Stock Splits 2024
Why Companies Split Their Stock
A stock split is financial engineering. It makes individual shares more affordable without changing the company's underlying value.
When a company executes a 4-for-1 split, shareholders receive four shares for every one they previously owned, while the stock price drops to one-quarter of its pre-split level. It doesn’t change the overall market capitalisation of the company or anything from a foundational value perspective.
However, it can have some psychological benefits and add flexibility for the company, which can often be enough for markets to rally around it.
Companies typically split their stock for a few key reasons:
Accessibility: High stock prices can deter smaller investors who prefer to buy full shares rather than fractions. A $1,000 stock becomes more psychologically appealing at $100 after a 10-for-1 split.
Liquidity: For the same psychological reasons, lower prices often increase trading volume, and the higher liquidity makes the stock even more appealing for further retail investments and lower-risk traders.
Employee compensation: Splits give greater flexibility when granting employees shares through stock option programs.
Market inclusion: Some indices, particularly the Dow Jones, favour companies with more moderate share prices.
Stock Splits So Far in 2025
Although at a far more measured pace than we saw in 2024, this year has seen some split activity, especially from outside the tech sector. Four prominent non-tech companies have completed forward splits so far in 2025:
Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE): Announced a 10-for-1 split
O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY): Completed a 15-for-1 split
Interactive Brokers (IBKR): Executed a 4-for-1 split in June
Fastenal (FAST): Implemented a 2-for-1 split
However, the tech sector, which dominated split headlines in 2024, has been notably quiet this year.
Next Top Stock Split Candidates
1. Netflix (NFLX) - $1,200+ Per Share
Netflix is the most likely candidate for a 2025 stock split. The company's share price pushed through the $1,200 barrier for the first time following the release of positive financial results for H1 2025.
Netflix has conducted two stock splits in the past: a 2-for-1 stock split in 2004, and a 7-for-1 stock split in 2015 when its price hit $650 per share — almost half of what it is currently.
Netflix reported 18.9 million new subscribers during Q4 2024 (significantly more than the 8.2 million Wall Street forecast), and its advertising revenue is also expected to double by the end of 2025.If its momentum continues, Netflix executing a split before the end of the year is highly likely.
2. Meta Platforms (META) - $760+ Per Share
Meta is the only member of the Magnificent Seven stocks to never carry out a split. META currency trades at over $760 — a threshold where many companies regularly consider splitting.
Meta's winning streak over the past year drove its shares to an all-time high of $790 in August, and it is the top performer in 2025 among the Magnificent Seven.
Meta posted earnings beats of $47.5 billion in revenue in July, well above the $44.83 billion expectation, with earnings per share hitting $7.14 compared to the expected $5.89.
YTD relative performance of the Magnificent Seven stocks
There is high speculation that the company could announce its first-ever split before the end of 2025. Its heavy AI spending, including raising 2025 AI expenditures to $66-72 billion, shows Meta’s confidence in its trajectory and would justify a stock split within the next few months.
3. Microsoft (MSFT) - $510 + Per Share
Microsoft currently trades around $510 per share. Its all-time high of $555.45 per share came in July 2025, driven by AI growth and cloud dominance.
Microsoft has executed nine stock splits since going public in 1986, with the most recent occurring in 2003, when shares traded around $48.The 22-year gap since the last split is the longest drought in the company's history, with all previous splits occurring below $200 per share.
History of Microsoft stock splits
Microsoft is one of only two stocks in the price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average trading above $500, alongside Goldman Sachs.
The Dow's price-weighted structure means higher-priced stocks have disproportionate influence on the index, creating pressure from S&P Dow Jones Indices to maintain balance.
There is also a competitive precedent for Microsoft to split. Its long-time rival, Apple, executed a split in 2020 when its stock was in the $450 range. And other tech giants, such as Nvidia and Broadcom, have also recently split their stocks, setting a strong precedent for Microsoft to follow.
4. Costco Wholesale (COST) - $960+ Per Share
Costco's consistent growth and near $1000 per share price make it a likely split candidate in the next 6-12 months. The company has split its stock multiple times in the past, but its last split was over 25 years ago in 2000. The stock is up 2,780% since then.
Costco’s reported Membership fee revenue increased 10% to $5.3 billion from June 2024 to May 2025, and its overall revenue of $268.78 billion is up 5.94% during the same period.
Costco’s Operating Income 2015-2024
Despite the positive numbers, Costco’s management has remained noncommittal when asked about split plans, making timing uncertain despite the strong financial case.
5. AutoZone (AZO) - $4,230+ Per Share
AutoZone's current stock price ironically exceeds the cost of many used cars for which it sells parts.
Despite its massive per-share price, AutoZone has avoided splitting since 1994. The company's share buyback programs have nearly halved the share count in the past ten years, pushing the price higher.
This massive share price alone puts it firmly on the upcoming split candidate list. However, its history shows that they often delay and defy the split norm.
Top stock split candidates 2025-2026
Stock Splits Are a Result, Not a Cause
Stock splits generate excitement, but they don’t change a business's fundamental value or the total value of the shares owned by shareholders.
Although research suggests split stocks often outperform broader markets in the 12 months following the announcement, this is generally a correlation, not a causation.
It is the strong business fundamentals that justified the split in the first place that usually lead to market outperformance, rather than the split itself. Anyone considering these stocks should focus on business fundamentals rather than split speculation.
That said, stock splits can generate hype and serve as catalysts for broader market attention. If the marketing strategy around the split is done well, it can help the company generate more interest from retail investors than otherwise anticipated.
Looking Ahead
2025 has seen fewer tech company stock splits than 2024, setting the stage for major announcements in the coming months. Companies like Netflix and Meta face increasing pressure to make their shares more accessible as prices reach new highs.
The next wave of stock splits will likely come from these established leaders whose strong business performance has driven their share prices to split-warranting levels.
Whether these companies ultimately decide to split their stocks remains to be seen, but the fundamental case for each remains strong regardless of corporate actions.
Most people think Nvidia got lucky with AI. They made chips that were good for gaming, and it turned out those same chips were good for machine learning.But that's not what happened at all…What actually happened reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of technology markets, and why investors often misread them.
Nvidia’s data center revenue flipped gaming in 2023
Why Markets Misread Platform Plays
Markets consistently undervalue platform investments while they're being made, then overvalue them once they succeed. Platform plays often appear to be terrible business decisions for years before they become obviously valuable.CUDA — Nvidia's software platform that made it possible to harness graphics card compute power for general-purpose usage — is the perfect example of this.When Nvidia was spending heavily on CUDA in the mid-2000s, the market saw it as an expensive distraction from its core graphics business.The investment made no sense. They were giving away free software to sell hardware, in an industry where hardware margins were already under pressure.Markets tend to price such technology investments through the lens of existing applications rather than potential ones. They can see the current build cost but fail to factor in the potential future value.
The Economics of Platform Capture
Technology markets have the somewhat unique capacity to shift from competing products to competing ecosystems.If this shift from product to ecosystem wars occurs, traditional competitive analysis can become almost useless.In a product market, a 10% advantage might translate to a 10% market share gain. In an ecosystem market, a 10% advantage can translate to a 90% market share, due to network effects and switching costs.This is why established companies with superior resources often lose to platform challengers. AMD and Intel both had as much (or more) money and engineering talent as Nvidia during its CUDA development years. But they were competing in the wrong game. They were optimizing for product performance while Nvidia was building ecosystem lock-in.
The Platform Investment Paradox
Platform investments create a paradox for public markets. The companies that make the biggest platform bets often see their stock prices suffer during the investment phase.Product investments have visible, measurable returns that markets can model. Platform investments have uncertain returns that depend on market timing and adoption patterns that are impossible to predict.This is why markets consistently undervalue platform companies during their growth phase. Traditional financial metrics capture the cost of platform investment but miss the value creation occurring in the ecosystem.By the time platform value becomes visible in financial results, the strategic opportunity has usually already passed. The companies that capture platform markets are typically those that invest before the value is measurable, not after it becomes obvious.
Nvidia’s 25-year Annual revenue growth - image by Motley Fool
Ecosystem Network Effect
Every developer who learns CUDA makes the Nvidia ecosystem more valuable. Every model trained on Nvidia infrastructure increases switching costs for the entire AI market.Gaining a competitive advantage in platform markets is more about ecosystem momentum than building superior products. The platform that attracts the most developers and creates the most applications becomes increasingly difficult to displace.Markets often misinterpret this momentum as a temporary competitive advantage rather than recognizing it as a structural shift in the market. They keep expecting "competition" to erode platform dominance, not realizing that successful platforms tend to make competition irrelevant.
What This Means for Market Analysis
The Nvidia pattern suggests that technology market analysis needs to focus more on ecosystem dynamics and less on product comparisons. The companies that will dominate the next wave of technology markets are likely building platforms today for applications that don't yet exist at scale.This requires looking beyond current revenue and margins to understand what infrastructure is being built for the future. The most important question isn't whether a company has the best current product, but whether they're creating the ecosystem that future applications will be built on.Of course, such companies are unlikely to achieve the heights of Nvidia, but the ones that find success will likely follow the same pattern — years of patient platform building followed by explosive ecosystem capture when the market inflection point arrives.Trade Nvidia and thousands of other Share CFDs on GO Markets — starting from just US$0.02 per share with no monthly data fee.
Three data levers dominate the US markets in February: growth, labour and inflation. Beyond those, policy communication, trade headlines and geopolitics can still matter, even when they are not tied to a scheduled release date.
Growth: business activity and trade
Early to mid-month indicators provide a read on whether US momentum is stabilising or softening into Q1.
Key dates
Advance monthly retail sales: 10 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 11 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT)
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilisation: 18 Feb, 9:15 am (ET) / 19 Feb, 1:15 am (AEDT)
International Trade in Goods and Services: 19 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 20 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT)
What markets look for
Markets will be watching new orders and output trends in PMIs to gauge underlying demand momentum. Export and import data will offer insights into global trade flows and domestic consumption patterns. Traders will also assess whether manufacturing and services sectors remain in expansionary territory or show signs of contraction.
Market sensitivities
Stronger growth can be associated with higher yields and a firmer USD, though inflation and policy expectations often dominate the rate response.
Softer activity can be associated with lower yields and improved risk appetite, depending on inflation, positioning, and broader risk conditions.
Labour conditions remain a direct input into rate expectations. The monthly NFP report, alongside the weekly jobless claims released every Thursday, is typically watched for signs of cooling or renewed tightness.
Key dates
Employment Situation (nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, wages): 6 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 7 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT)
What markets look for
Markets will focus on headline payrolls to assess the pace of job creation, the unemployment rate for signals of labour market slack, and average hourly earnings as a gauge of wage pressures. A gradual cooling can support the idea that wage pressures are easing. Persistent tightness may push out expectations for policy easing.
Market sensitivities
Payroll surprises frequently move Treasury yields and the USD quickly, with knock-on effects for equities and commodities.
Inflation releases remain a key input into expectations for the Fed’s policy path.
Key dates
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 11 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 12 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT)
Personal Income and Outlays, including the PCE price index): 20 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 21 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT)
Producer Price Index (PPI): 27 Feb, 8:30 am (ET) / 28 Feb, 12:30 am (AEDT)
What markets look for
Producer prices can act as a pipeline signal. CPI and the PCE price index can help confirm whether inflation pressures are broadening or fading at the consumer level.
How rates and the USD can react
Cooling inflation can support lower yields and a softer USD, though market reactions can vary.
Sticky inflation can keep upward pressure on yields and financial conditions, especially if it shifts policy expectations.
There is no scheduled February FOMC meeting, but speeches and other Fed communication, as well as the minutes cycle from prior meetings, can still influence expectations around the policy path. Without a decision event, markets often react to shifts in tone, or renewed emphasis on inflation persistence and labour conditions.
Trade and geopolitics
Trade flows and energy markets can remain secondary, and the risk profile is typically headline-driven rather than linked to scheduled releases.
The Office of the United States Trade Representative has published fact sheets and policy updates (including on US-India trade engagement) that may occasionally influence sector and supply-chain sentiment at the margin, depending on the substance and market focus at the time.
Separately, volatility tied to Middle East developments and any impact on energy pricing can filter into inflation expectations and bond yields. Weekly petroleum market data from the US Energy Information Administration is one input that markets often monitor for near-term signals.
Every four years, the Olympics does something markets understand very well: it concentrates attention. And when attention concentrates, so do headlines, narratives, positioning… and sometimes, price.
The Olympics isn’t just “two weeks of sport.” For traders, it’s a two-week global marketing and tourism event, delivered in real time, often while Australia is asleep.
So, let’s make this useful.
Scheduled dates: Friday 6 February to Sunday 22 February 2026 Where: Milan, Cortina d’Ampezzo, and alpine venues across northern Italy
What matters (and what doesn’t)
Matters
Money moving early: Infrastructure, transport upgrades, sponsorship, media rights and tourism booking trends.
Narrative amid liquidity: Themed trades can run harder than fundamentals, especially when volume shows up but can also reverse quickly.
Earnings language: Traders often watch whether companies start referencing demand, bookings, ad spend, or guidance tailwinds.
Doesn’t
Medal counts (controversial statement, I know).
Why the Olympics matter to markets
The Olympics are not just two weeks of sport. For host regions, they often reflect years of planning, investment and marketing and then all of that gets shoved into one concentrated global media moment. That’s why markets pay attention, even when the fundamentals haven’t suddenly reinvented themselves.
Here are a few themes host regions may see. Outcomes vary by host, timing, and the macro backdrop.
Theme map: where headlines usually cluster
Construction and materials Logistics upgrades, transport links, and “sustainable” builds.
Luxury and tourism Milan’s fashion-capital status starts turning into demand well before opening night.
Media and streaming Advertising increases as audiences surge and platforms cash in.
Transport and travel Airlines, hotels and travel tech riding the volume, and the expectations.
For Australian-based traders, the key idea is exposure, not geography. Italian listings aren’t required to see the theme while simultaneously, some people look for ASX-listed companies whose earnings may be linked to similar forces (travel demand, discretionary spend). The connection is not guaranteed. It depends on the business, the numbers and the valuation.
The ASX shortlist
The ASX shortlist is simply a way to organise the local market by exposure, so you can see which parts of the index are most likely to pick up the spillover. It is not a forecast and it is not a recommendation, it is a framework for tracking how a narrative moves from headlines into sector pricing, and for separating genuine theme exposure from names that are only catching the noise.
Wesfarmers (WES): broad retail exposure that gives a read on the local consumer.
Flight Centre (FLT): may offer higher exposure to travel cycles across retail and corporate.
Corporate Travel Management (CTD): business travel sensitivity, and it often reacts to conference and event demands.
The Aussie toolkit
The Olympics compresses attention, and when attention compresses, a handful of instruments tend to register it first while everything else just picks up noise. The whole point here is monitoring and discipline, not variety.
FX: the fastest headline absorber
Examples: EUR/USD, EUR/AUD, with AUD/JPY often watched as broader risk-sentiment signals. What it captures: how markets are pricing European optimism, global risk appetite, and where capital is leaning in real time
Index benchmarks: the sentiment dashboard
Examples (index level): Euro Stoxx 50, DAX, FTSE, S&P 500. What it can capture: whether a headline is broad enough to influence wider positioning, or whether it stays contained to a narrow theme.
Commodities: second order, often the amplifier
Examples: copper (industrial sensitivity), Brent/WTI (energy and geopolitics), gold (risk/uncertainty). What it can capture: the bigger drivers (USD, rates, growth expectations, weather and geopolitics) with the Olympics usually acting as the wrapper rather than the engine.
Put together, this is not a prediction, and it is not a shopping list. It is a compact map of where the Olympics story is most likely to show itself first, where it might spread next, and where it sometimes shows up late, after everyone has already decided how they feel about it.
Your calendar is not Europe’s calendar
For Aussie traders, the Olympics is a two-week, overnight headline cycle. Much of the “live” information flow is likely to land during the European and US sessions. However, there are three windows to keep in mind.
Watch this space.
In the next piece, we’ll build the Euro checklist and map the volatility windows around Milano–Cortina so you can see when the market is actually pricing the story, and when it is just reacting to noise.
For over 110 years, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) has operated at a deliberate distance from the White House and Congress.
It is the only federal agency that doesn’t report to any single branch of government in the way most agencies do, and can implement policy without waiting for political approval.
These policies include interest rate decisions, adjusting the money supply, emergency lending to banks, capital reserve requirements for banks, and determining which financial institutions require heightened oversight.
The Fed can act independently on all these critical economic decisions and more.
But why does the US government enable this? And why is it that nearly every major economy has adopted a similar model for their central bank?
The foundation of Fed independence: the panic of 1907
The Fed was established in 1913 following the Panic of 1907, a major financial crisis. It saw major banks collapse, the stock market drop nearly 50%, and credit markets freeze across the country.
At the time, the US had no central authority to inject liquidity into the banking system during emergencies or to prevent cascading bank failures from toppling the entire economy.
J.P. Morgan personally orchestrated a bailout using his own fortune, highlighting just how fragile the US financial system had become.
The debate that followed revealed that while the US clearly needed a central bank, politicians were objectively seen as poorly positioned to run it.
Previous attempts at central banking had failed partly due to political interference. Presidents and Congress had used monetary policy to serve short-term political goals rather than long-term economic stability.
So it was decided that a stand-alone body responsible for making all major economic decisions would be created. Essentially, the Fed was created because politicians, who face elections and public pressure, couldn’t be relied upon to make unpopular decisions when needed for the long-term economy.
Although the Fed is designed to be an autonomous body, separate from political influence, it still has accountability to the US government (and thereby US voters).
The President is responsible for appointing the Fed Chair and the seven Governors of the Federal Reserve Board, subject to confirmation by the Senate.
Each Governor serves a 14-year term, and the Chair serves a four-year term. The Governors' terms are staggered to prevent any single administration from being able to change the entire board overnight.
Beyond this “main” board, there are twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks that operate across the country. Their presidents are appointed by private-sector boards and approved by the Fed's seven Governors. Five of these presidents vote on interest rates at any given time, alongside the seven Governors.
This creates a decentralised structure where no single person or political party can dictate monetary policy. Changing the Fed's direction requires consensus across multiple appointees from different administrations.
The case for Fed independence: Nixon, Burns, and the inflation hangover
The strongest argument for keeping the Fed independent comes from Nixon’s time as president in the 1970s.
Nixon pressured Fed Chair Arthur Burns to keep interest rates low in the lead-up to the 1972 election. Burns complied, and Nixon won in a landslide. Over the next decade, unemployment and inflation both rose simultaneously (commonly referred to now as “stagflation”).
By the late 1970s, inflation exceeded 13 per cent, Nixon was out of office, and it was time to appoint a new Fed chair.
That new Fed chair was Paul Volcker. And despite public and political pressure to bring down interest rates and reduce unemployment, he pushed the rate up to more than 19 per cent to try to break inflation.
The decision triggered a brutal recession, with unemployment hitting nearly 11 per cent.
But by the mid-1980s, inflation had dropped back into the low single digits.
Pre-Volcker era inflation vs Volcker era inflation | FRED
Volcker stood firm where non-independent politicians would have backflipped in the face of plummeting poll numbers.
The “Volcker era” is now taught as a masterclass in why central banks need independence. The painful medicine worked because the Fed could withstand political backlash that would have broken a less autonomous institution.
Are other central banks independent?
Nearly every major developed economy has an independent central bank. The European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, and Reserve Bank of Australia all operate with similar autonomy from their governments as the Fed.
However, there are examples of developed nations that have moved away from independent central banks.
In Turkey, the president forced its central bank to maintain low rates even as inflation soared past 85 per cent. The decision served short-term political goals while devastating the purchasing power of everyday people.
Argentina's recurring economic crises have been exacerbated by monetary policy subordinated to political needs. Venezuela's hyperinflation accelerated after the government asserted greater control over its central bank.
The pattern tends to show that the more control the government has over monetary policy, the more the economy leans toward instability and higher inflation.
Independent central banks may not be perfect, but they have historically outperformed the alternative.
Turkey’s interest rates dropped in 2022 despite inflation skyrocketing
Why do markets care about Fed independence?
Markets generally prefer predictability, and independent central banks make more predictable decisions.
Fed officials often outline how they plan to adjust policy and what their preferred data points are.
Currently, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly jobs reports, and quarterly GDP releases form expectations about the future path of interest rates.
This transparency and predictability help businesses map out investments, banks to set lending rates, and everyday people to plan major financial decisions.
When political influence infiltrates these decisions, it introduces uncertainty. Instead of following predictable patterns based on publicly released data, interest rates can shift based on electoral considerations or political preference, which makes long-term planning more difficult.
The markets react to this uncertainty through stock price volatility, potential bond yield rises, and fluctuating currency values.
The enduring logic
The independence of the Federal Reserve is about recognising that stable money and sustainable growth require institutions capable of making unpopular decisions when economic fundamentals demand them.
Elections will always create pressure for easier monetary conditions. Inflation will always tempt policymakers to delay painful adjustments. And the political calendar will never align perfectly with economic cycles.
Fed independence exists to navigate these eternal tensions, not perfectly, but better than political control has managed throughout history.
That's why this principle, forged in financial panics and refined through successive crises, remains central to how modern economies function. And it's why debates about central bank independence, whenever they arise, touch something fundamental about how democracies can maintain long-term prosperity.