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Bitcoin has now outlasted the peak of all its previous four-year cycles.
For over a decade, every Bitcoin cycle has followed the same sequence: consolidation, breakout, mania, crash. Rinse and repeat.

Timeline-wise, we should be at the post-mania inflection point, waiting for the seemingly inevitable crash.
Yet unlike previous runs, this cycle never saw its “mania phase.” Instead, Bitcoin has spent the past year grinding sideways, touching new all-time highs without a euphoric blow-off top that defined previous cycles.
The fact that this euphoria period never materialised brings into question whether this cycle still has room to run, or has the market simply matured past the point of mania-driven peaks?
The Historical Four-Year Pattern
The traditional Bitcoin cycle was simple. Every four years, a halving event would reduce the block reward (amount of new Bitcoin being created) by half, creating a supply shock that triggered major bull markets.
The 2013 cycle, the 2017 cycle, and the 2021 cycle all followed this script. Each halving was followed by a 3-to 9-month growth period, then a full-on mania period, before topping out 12 to 18 months after the event.
Following the most recent halving in April 2024, Bitcoin experienced five months of sideways consolidation, then hinted at making its anticipated breakout into mania after the US election… but quickly returned to sideways consolidation for the next year.
We have seen new ATHs and the price has made some notable gains during the period, but the overall momentum has been much weaker.
This failure to repeat the frenzies of the past three cycles has brought into question how much influence the Bitcoin halving truly has on the market anymore.
No Longer a Supply Shock
In previous cycles, the halving created a situation where prices had to rise to clear the same dollar amount of miner expenses (who were now earning half the Bitcoin).
Bitcoin miners would simply not sell until the price reached a certain level, creating a supply shock that would drive prices higher.

Miners still do this today; however, the market’s maturation and the institutional adoption of Bitcoin have dampened the impact.
Selling off Bitcoin is no longer a balancing act where miners hold influence over price. The market has deep liquidity that can handle significant flows in either direction.
Institutional ETFs routinely purchase more Bitcoin in a single day than miners produce in a month.
The supply reduction that once drove dramatic price movements is now easily absorbed by a market with institutional buyers providing constant demand.
If the Halving Isn't Driving Cycles, What Is?
The overriding narrative is that the Bitcoin cycle is now tied to the global liquidity cycle.
If you plot the Global M2 Money Supply versus Bitcoin on a year-on-year basis, you can see that every Bitcoin top has correlated with the peaks of Global M2 liquidity growth.

This isn't unique to Bitcoin. The Gold price has closely mirrored the rate of Global M2 expansion for decades.
When central banks flood the system with liquidity, capital tends to move into stores of value or high-risk assets. When they drain liquidity, those same assets tend to retreat.
However, this is a correlation; these relationships may change and should not be relied upon as indicators of future performance.
Is the Dollar Just Getting Weaker?
The U.S. Dollar Strength Index tells the other side of this liquidity story. Bitcoin versus the dollar year-on-year has been almost perfectly inversely correlated.
Simply put, as fiat currencies lose purchasing power, “hard” assets like Bitcoin and Gold start to appreciate. Not because of improved fundamentals, but because the currencies they are paired against are simply worth less.

The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
Beyond the charts and patterns, there is also the psychological notion that the four-year cycle persists precisely because people believe it will.
People have been conditioned by three complete cycles to expect Bitcoin to peak somewhere between 400 and 600 days after a halving.
This collective belief shapes behaviour: traders take profits, investors take fewer risks, and retail enthusiasm wanes. The prophecy fulfils itself.
When everyone believes Bitcoin should peak 18 months after a halving, the combined selling pressure can create exactly that outcome — regardless of whether the underlying driver still exists.
The current market weakness, with Bitcoin dropping over 20% from its October record high, occurred almost precisely at this 18-month mark.
Is This Cycle Built Different?
Despite this on-cue sell-off, this cycle still has the potential to break away from the historical four-year pattern.
Increased ETF adoption by institutional investors has brought in higher quality and consistent ownership of Bitcoin.
Unlike retail traders, who often panic-sell during corrections, institutional holders tend to maintain their positions through volatility.
For example, Michael Saylor’s high-profile MicroStrategy fund has continued to purchase Bitcoin through market weakness. Recently reporting a purchase of 8,178 BTC at an average price of $102,171.

Another hard indicator that diverges from previous cycle peaks is the amount of Bitcoin being held on centralised exchanges.
The current amount of BTC on CEXs is unusually low. This pattern is generally seen closer to cycle lows, rather than peaks.

Other factors supporting the break of the four-year mould are coming out of the Whitehouse.
A comprehensive regulatory framework through the CLARITY Act represents structural changes and boundaries for regulatory bodies that didn't exist in previous cycles.
And the move to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve will see all government-held forfeited Bitcoin (approximately $30 billion worth) transferred into a government reserve, signalling Bitcoin as a strategic asset like Gold and oil.

Bitcoin Has Finally Grown Up
The four-year cycle has been a useful heuristic, but heuristics break down when conditions change. Institutional buyers, regulatory clarity, and strategic reserves represent genuinely new conditions historical patterns don’t account for.
At the same time, dismissing the cycle entirely would be premature. The self-fulfilling aspect means it retains predictive power even if the original cause has weakened.
Market participants act on the pattern they've learned, and their actions create the pattern they expect.
Perhaps the real insight is that the Bitcoin market cycles never had just one cause. They were always the result of multiple overlapping forces — programmed scarcity, liquidity conditions, sentiment, self-reinforcing expectations.
The cycle shifts character as some forces strengthen and others weaken. But whether the forces have shifted enough to break the four-year trend is yet to be determined.
The fundamental indicators show this cycle may have some life, but the psychological power of the four-year pattern could push it to another, predictable end.
You can trade BTC and other popular Crypto CFD pairs on GO Markets with $0 swaps until 31 December 2025.
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Markets have bounced back strongly this week. The S&P 500 is now just 1.5% from record highs, and the Nasdaq is recovering well following its pullback.
Rate Cut Expectations
The main driver behind this rally was a shift in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Markets are currently pricing in a quarter-point rate cut for December, with only a 25% chance of another reduction in January. This week's economic data will be crucial in shaping expectations going into 2026.
Key Economic Data This Week
Several important data releases are scheduled for this week. The PCE inflation data — the Fed's preferred inflation measure — for September will finally be released on Friday and could have the biggest impact on December and January rate decisions. The ADP jobs report and weekly jobless claims will also be released, while the non-farm payrolls report has been delayed again.
Global Manufacturing Snapshot
Today also kicks off a busy week of manufacturing data releases. Global PMI numbers are due across the board, including figures from the Eurozone, UK, Germany, and the US this evening. These reports will provide a critical snapshot of global economic health and could help reveal the impact of the US trade tariffs.
Gold Breaks Higher
Gold made a significant move on Friday, breaching the key $4,200 level after consolidating last week. The precious metal has followed through today, and the $4,400 level now looks achievable if buying pressure continues.
Bitcoin Under Pressure
Bitcoin has given up last week's modest gains and seen substantial selling pressure. A significant drop of about $4,000 occurred during Asian trading this morning — a notable decline for an Asia session. The key level to watch is $84,000, with potential support at $80,000 (the lowest level since March).
Market Insights
Watch Mike Smith's analysis of the week ahead in markets.
Key Economic Events
Stay up to date with the key economic events for the week.
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Nvidia's AI computing dominance is facing its most serious challenge yet, with Google strengthening its position as an equal competitor in the AI chip market this week.
Google’s newest AI model, Gemini 3, was announced to be powered by Google’s in-house tensor processing units (TPUs) a few weks ago. A blow to Nvida, but not a huge shock.
However, this week it was announced that Google is now negotiating with Meta to supply billions of dollars' worth of its TPUs for Meta's data centres in 2027.
Google is reported to be pitching its cloud customers on TPU purchases, claiming it could capture as much as 10% of Nvidia's annual revenue.
Nvidia Shares fell 2.6% following the Google-Meta report and are down 10% for the month, erasing more than $500 billion in market value.

For Google, this represents pure upside—monetising technology development while a competitor helps fund the operation.
Meta also stands to benefit from presumably lower costs compared to Nvidia's premium-priced GPUs.
Nvidia maintains it is "a generation ahead of the industry" and emphasises that it offers greater performance, versatility, and fungibility than application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) like Google's TPUs.

Yet the very act of addressing these concerns—after years of untouchable dominance—may signal the pressure mounting on the AI chip leader.
For now, the crown remains Nvidia's. But with Google emerging as a credible challenger and other cloud computing hyperscalers diversifing their chip sourcing, that crown sits considerably less comfortably than it did a few weeks ago.
Tesla's Pivot Eroding EV Dominance
Tesla's dominance in the electric vehicle market is eroding across all three major global markets.
European sales collapsed 48.5% in October compared to the previous year, with year-to-date sales down roughly 30% even as the broader European EV market surged 26%.
China's once-reliable market has similarly soured, with October deliveries hitting a three-year low, falling 35.8%.
In the U.S., October sales dropped 24% after a brief September surge driven by buyers rushing to capture expiring tax credits.
In Europe, Chinese automaker BYD now significantly outsells Tesla, while legacy manufacturers like Volkswagen saw sales through September reached 522,600 units—triple Tesla's European sales.
Tesla's response has been to pivot toward robotaxis and humanoid robots rather than new consumer vehicles.

CEO Elon Musk claimed Tesla will be doubling its Austin's fleet to 60 vehicles by year-end, although this is also short of his October prediction of 500.
Despite these challenges, Tesla maintains a $1.4 trillion valuation, making it the world's tenth most valuable public company by market cap.
Fed December Rate Cut Flips to Certainty
Market odds for a December rate cut have flipped to above 80%, after dramatically dropping down to 42% just last week.
JPMorgan Chase has reversed its forecast entirely. After briefly predicting the Fed would delay cuts until January following delayed September jobs data, the bank now expects quarter-point reductions in both December and January.

The shift came following seemingly sudden supportive commentary from key Fed officials. New York Fed President John Williams made a case for additional rate cuts, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also came out to publicly support cuts due to labour market concerns.
The sudden shift in communication means the Fed officials may have decided that market stability concerns now outweigh inflation risks — at least for now.
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One of the most impactful books I’ve ever read is “The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People: Powerful Lessons in Personal Change” by Stephen Covey.
When it was first published in 1989, it quickly became one of the most influential works in business and personal development literature, and retained its place on bestseller lists for the next couple of decades.
The compelling, comprehensive, and structured framework for personal growth presented in the book has undoubtedly inspired many to rethink how they organise their lives and priorities, both professionally and personally.
Although its lessons were originally designed for self-improvement and positive structured growth, the underlying principles are universal, making them easily transferable to many areas of life, including trading.
In this article, you will explore how each of Covey’s seven original habits can be reframed within a trading context, in an attempt to offer a structure that may help guide you to becoming the best trader you can be.

1. Be Proactive
Being proactive means recognising that we have the power to choose our responses and to shape outcomes through appropriate preparation with subsequent planned reactions.
In a Trading Context:
For traders, this means anticipating potential problems before they arise and putting measures in place to better mitigate risk.
Rather than waiting for issues to unfold, the proactive trader identifies potential areas of concern and ensures that they have access to the right tools, resources, and people to prepare effectively, whatever the market may throw at them.
What This Means for You:
Being proactive may involve seeking out quality education and services, maintaining access to accurate and timely market information, continually assessing risk and opportunity, and having systems to manage those risks within defined limits.
Consequences of Non-Action:
Inadequate preparation and a lack of defined systems often lead to poor trading decisions and less-than-desired outcomes.
Failing to assess risk properly can result in significant and often avoidable losses.
By contrast, a proactive approach builds resilience and confidence, ensuring that when challenges arise, your response is measured and less emotionally driven by what is happening on the screen in front of you.
2. Begin with the End in Mind
Covey's second habit is about defining purpose. It suggests that effective people are more likely to achieve what is possible if they start with a clear understanding of their destination, so every action aligns with that ultimate vision.
In a Trading Context:
Ask yourself: What is my true purpose for trading?
Many traders may instinctively answer “to make money,” but money is surely only a vehicle to achieve something else in your world for you and those you care about, not a purpose per se.
You need to clarify what trading success really means for you.
Is it a greater degree of financial independence through increased income or capital growth, the freedom of having more time, achieving a personal challenge of becoming an effective trader, or a combination of any of these?
What This Means to You:
Try framing your purpose as, “I must become a better trader so that I can…” and complete a list with your genuine reasons for tackling the market and its challenges.
This helps you establish meaningful short-term development goals that keep you moving toward your vision. Keep that purpose visible, as a note near your trading screen that reminds you why you are doing this.
Consequences of Non-Action:
Traders with a clearly defined purpose are more likely to stay disciplined and consistent.
Those without one often drift, chasing short-term gains without direction. There is ample evidence that formalising your development in whatever context through goal setting can significantly increase the likelihood of success. Why would trading be any different?
Surely the bottom-line question to ask yourself is, “Am I willing to risk my potential by trading without purpose?”
3. Put First Things First
This habit is about time management and prioritisation. This involves focusing your efforts and energy on what truly matters. As part of the exploration of this concept, Covey emphasised distinguishing between what is important and what is merely urgent.
In a Trading Context:
Trading demands commitment, learning, and reflection.
It is not just about screen time but about using that time effectively.
Managing activities to ensure your effort is spent wisely on planning, measuring, journaling and performance evaluation, and refining systems, accordingly, are all critical to sustaining both improvements in results and balance.
What This Means to You:
Traders often believe they need to spend more time trading when what they really need is to focus on better time allocation.
It is logical to suggest that prioritising activities that can often contribute directly to improvement, such as system testing, reviewing performance, analysing results, and refining your strategy, is worthwhile.
These high-value tasks can help traders focus their time more deliberately and systematically.
Consequences of Non-Action:
If you fail to control your trading time effectively, you will be more likely to spend much of it on low-impact activities that produce little progress.
Over time, this not only hurts your results but also reduces the real “hourly value” of your trading effort.
In business terms, and of course, you should be treating your trading as you would any business activity; poor prioritisation can inflate your costs and diminish your potential trading outcomes.
4. Think Win: Win
Covey's fourth habit encouraged an attitude of mutual benefit, where seeking solutions that facilitate positive outcomes for all parties.
In a Trading Context:
In trading, this concept must be adapted to suggest that developing a mindset that recognises every well-executed plan as a win, even when an individual trade results in a loss.
Some trading ideas will simply not work out, and so some losses are inevitable, but if they remain within defined limits, they should not be viewed as failures but rather as a successful adherence to a trading plan. In the aim of developing consistency in action, and the widely held belief that this is one of the cornerstones of effective trading, then it surely is a win to fulfil this.
So, in simple terms, the real “win” lies in a combination of maintaining discipline, following your system, and controlling risk beyond just looking at the P/L of a single trade.
What This Means to You:
Building and trading clear, unambiguous systems that you follow consistently has got to be the goal.
This process produces reliable data that you can later analyse and subsequently use to refine specific strategies and personal performance.
When you do this, every outcome, whether profit or loss, can serve as valuable feedback.
For example, a controlled loss that fits your plan is proof that your system works and that you are protecting your capital.
Alternatively, a trailing stop strategy, which means you exit trades in a timely way and give less profit back to the market, provides positive feedback that your system has merit in achieving outcomes.
Consequences of Non-Action:
Without this mindset shift, traders can become emotionally reactive, interpreting normal drawdowns as personal defeats.
This fosters loss aversion and other biases that can erode decision-making quality if left unchecked. Through the process of redefining “winning,” you are potentially safeguarding both your capital and, importantly, your trading confidence (a key component of trading discipline).
5. Seek First to Understand and Then Take Action
Covey's fifth habit emphasises empathy, the act of listening and aiming to fully understand before responding. In trading, this principle translates to understanding the market environment before taking any action.
In a Trading Context:
Many traders act impulsively, driven by excitement or fear, which often results in entering trades without taking into account the full context of what is happening in the market, and/or the potential short-term influences on sentiment that may increase risk.
This “minimalisation bias,” defined as acting on limited information, will rarely produce consistent results. Instead, adopt a process that begins with observation and comprehension.
What This Means to You:
Establishing a daily pre-trading routine is critical. This may include a review of key markets, sentiment indicators, and potential catalysts for change, such as imminent key data releases. Understanding what the market is telling you before you decide what to do is the aim of having this sort of daily agenda.
This approach may not only improve trade selection but also enable you to get into a state of psychological readiness that can facilitate decision-making quality throughout the session.
Consequences of Non-Action:
Failing to prepare for the trading day ahead can mean not only exposing yourself to unnecessary risk but also arguably being more likely to miss potential opportunities.
A trader who acts without understanding is vulnerable both psychologically and financially. Conversely, being forewarned is being forearmed. When you aim to understand markets first before any type of trading activity, your actions are more likely to be deliberate, grounded, and more effective.
6. Synergise
Synergy in Covey's model means valuing differences and combining the strengths of those around you to create outcomes greater than the sum of their parts.
In a Trading Context:
In trading, synergy refers to the integration of multiple systems and disciplines that work together. This includes your plan, your record keeping and performance management processes, your time management, and your emotional balance.
No single system is enough; success comes from the synergy of elements that support and inform one another.
What This Means to You:
Integrating learning and measurement is an integral part of your trading development process. Journaling, for example, allows you to assess not only your technical performance but also your behavioural consistency.
This self-awareness allows you to refine your plan and so helps you operate with greater confidence.
The synergy between rational analysis and emotional composure is what is more likely to lead to consistently sound trading decisions.
Consequences of Non-Action:
When logic and emotion are out of balance, decision-making will inevitably suffer.
If your systems are incomplete, ambiguous, or poorly connected to the reality of your current level of understanding, competence and confidence, your results are likely to be inconsistent. Building synergy across all areas of your trading practice, including that of evaluation and development in critical trading areas, will help create cohesion, efficiency, and better performance.
7. Sharpen the Saw
Covey's final habit focuses on continuous learning and refinement, including maintaining and improving the tools at your disposal and skills and knowledge that allow you to perform effectively.
In a Trading Context:
In trading, this translates to creating a plan to achieve ongoing, purposeful learning.
Even small insights can make a large difference in results. Effective traders continually refine their knowledge, ask new questions, and apply lessons from experience.
What This Means to You:
Trading learning can, of course, take many forms. Discovering new indicators that may offer some confluence to price action, testing different strategies, exploring new markets, or simply understanding more about yourself as a trader.
There is little doubt that active participation in learning keeps you engaged, adaptable and sharp. Even making sure you ask at least one question at a seminar or webinar or making a simple list at the end of each session of the "3 things I learned", can be invaluable in developing momentum for your growth as a trader.
Your record-keeping and performance metrics should generate fresh questions that can guide future development.
Consequences of Non-Action:
Without direction in your learning, your progress is likely to slow.
I often reference that when someone talks about trading experience in several years, this is only meaningful if there has been continuous growth, rather than staying in the same place every year (i.e. only one year of meaningful experience)
Passive trading learning, for example, reading an article without applying, watching a webinar without engagement, or measuring without closing the circle through putting an action plan together for your development, can all lead to stagnation.
It is fair to suggest that taking shortcuts in trading learning is likely to translate directly into shortcuts in result success.
Active, focused development is essential for sustained improvement.
Are You Ready for Action?
Stephen Covey’s The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People presented a timeless model for self-development and purposeful living.
When applied to trading, these same habits form a powerful framework for consistency, focus, and growth.
Trading is a pursuit that demands both technical skill and emotional strength. Success is rarely about finding the perfect system, but about developing the right habits that support consistent, rational decision-making over time.
By integrating the principles of Covey’s seven habits into your trading practice, you create a foundation not only for profitability but for continual personal growth.
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Markets found support last Friday after what was the worst week for global markets since Liberation Day.
Shortened Thanksgiving Week
This week, Thanksgiving Day impacts the US trading schedule, affecting both liquidity and data timing. Despite the shortened week, it's still packed with key releases. The PCE index, US PPI, retail sales, GDP, and weekly jobs figures are set for a concentrated release on Wednesday, before the Thursday holiday.
Australian CPI in Focus
Australian CPI data also drops on Wednesday, and it's shaping up to be a crucial number. With strong signals from the RBA indicating a Christmas interest rate cut is unlikely, this inflation reading could either reinforce or challenge the RBA's stance — a must-watch for any surprises that might move rate expectations.
Gold Coiling
Gold has established a strong base above $4,000. The chart shows six consecutive weekly candles testing support around $4,065, with clear rejection of downside moves. This pattern suggests insufficient selling pressure to push prices lower, potentially setting the stage for a move back toward $4,200-$4,250 if buyers step in.
Bitcoin Under Pressure
Bitcoin is experiencing another wave of selling. The weekend brought some respite with a bounce off $84,000, but the current support level sits at $82,000—a level we haven't seen since April. While there may be short-covering opportunities toward $92,000, the buyer momentum looks weak, and another test of $82,000 support appears equally likely.
Market Insights
Watch Mike Smith's analysis for the week ahead in markets.
Key Economic Events
Stay up to date with the key economic events of the week.



NVIDIA delivered a resounding answer to AI bubble concerns this morning, reporting third-quarter earnings that surpassed Wall Street expectations and signalling sustained momentum in AI infrastructure spending.
The chip giant posted adjusted earnings of $1.30 per share on revenue of $57.01 billion, beating analyst estimates of $1.26 EPS on $54.92 billion.
Revenue surged 62% year-over-year, with the critical data centre segment delivering $51.2 billion against expectations of $49 billion.

More importantly, NVIDIA projected fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $65 billion, significantly above the $61.66 billion consensus, indicating demand for AI accelerators shows no signs of cooling.
The company's next-generation Blackwell architecture is seeing unprecedented demand from cloud providers building out massive AI infrastructure. CEO Jensen Huang simply stated: "Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out."
NVIDIA shares had declined nearly 8% in November as prominent investors raised concerns about AI valuations. Peter Thiel's Thiel Macro completely exited its approximately $100 million position, while SoftBank divested $5.8 billion in holdings.
However, the continued capital expenditure by Big Tech customers — Microsoft alone spent nearly $35 billion in its most recent quarter, with roughly half allocated to chips — suggests the buildout phase is far from complete.
Beyond data centres, NVIDIA’s gaming revenue reached $4.3 billion (up 30% year-over-year), professional visualisation generated $760 million (up 56%), and automotive/robotics sales hit $592 million (up 32%).
The near-term trajectory remains strong, with the company continuing to capture the lion's share of AI chip demand in a market showing no signs of saturation.
Experts Split on Bitcoin's Trajectory
Bitcoin is at a vital inflection point, trading around $92,300 after briefly dipping below $90,000 for the first time in seven months.
The pressure stems from retail selling, leveraged trading liquidations, and institutional positioning, creating an environment where experts are split as to whether this is the end of the cycle or just a healthy pullback.

Glassnode data show approximately 65,200 BTC—valued at roughly $6.08 billion—was sold at a loss within 24 hours, indicating capitulation among short-term holders who bought near recent highs.
Yet, while retail investors panic-sell, wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC have increased to 1,384, a four-month high. Over 102,000 whale transactions exceeding $100,000 and 29,000 transactions over $1 million have been made this week, potentially making this the most active whale week of 2025.

This accumulation pattern during fear-driven selloffs has historically preceded medium-term recoveries (though past performance offers no guarantees).
For now, the market remains on a knife's edge, with high volatility seemingly the only certainty.
Fed Still Faces Divide as Data Starts Flowing
The Federal Reserve stands at a crossroads heading into its December 9-10 meeting, with internal divisions threatening to derail what was considered a near-certain third consecutive rate cut.
The released minutes of the October FOMC exposed strongly differing views within the Fed about the December policy decision, with many suggesting no more cuts are needed through the end of 2025.
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Complicating things further is the data pause from the recent 44-day government shutdown. The Labor Department announced that October and November employment data won't be released until December 16 — six days after the FOMC meeting concludes — depriving the Fed of crucial labor market information.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that a December rate cut is "far from a foregone conclusion," and there is "a growing chorus" among officials to "at least wait a cycle" before cutting again.
This represents the highest level of internal discord during Powell's tenure, with predictions of potentially four or five dissents at the December meeting — the most since 1992.
The December meeting will reveal whether the Fed can maintain the credibility needed to navigate a U.S. economy caught between stubborn inflation and (seemingly) weak labour market.
Every data release and Fed official comment between now and then will move markets as investors search for clues about the Fed’s next move.


A market bubble occurs when asset prices rise far beyond any reasonable valuation.
It is driven by speculation, emotion, and the belief that prices will continue rising indefinitely.
For traders, the challenge is more about finding a way to manage a bubble, rather than just identifying that one exists.
By their very nature, bubbles can persist far longer than any logical analysis suggests. There are opportunities as they develop, but timing their peak is virtually impossible.
Understanding their characteristics and having a systematic way of managing bubbles in your trading strategy is worth considering for any trader.
What is a Bubble?
Market bubbles have distinct features that separate them from normal bull markets or even overvalued conditions for a particular asset:
Dramatic Price Appreciation Disconnected From Fundamentals
In a bubble, traditional valuation metrics become meaningless.
Company or asset fundamentals that usually matter to market participants are ignored in the hope of what might be.
Cash flow, profit margins, competitive positioning, and (in some cases) producing revenue may be dismissed.
Widespread Participation And "This Time Is Different" Narratives
Bubbles require mass market participation.
When every headline you see or article you read references "this time is different," or "the old rules don't apply anymore," it is a sign that the collective psychology has shifted from normal caution.
Social media may begin to explode with ever more frequent success stories, and for the individual trader, the fear of missing out becomes increasingly overwhelming.
Credit and Leverage Fuelling Demand
Bubbles are typically accompanied by easier credit conditions.
When interest rates are lowered and investors are confident in general economic conditions, any spare cash is put to work.
In stock or other market bubbles, you may see retail traders maxing out credit cards to buy call options, with the put/call ratio becoming increasingly distorted.
This leverage often amplifies the rise and the eventual fall, making the risk even more acute and potentially damaging to trader capital.
Vertical Price Charts in Final Stages
One of the telltale signs of a bubble's final phase is a parabolic price chart.
Prices seem to go up daily, and every minor pullback is short-lived (creating more buying pressure).
This is the euphoria stage. It is where the greatest danger is.
The fear of missing out on further moves is at its highest, and a logical willingness to take profit off the table diminishes in the minds of ever more excited traders.
New participants may continue to enter solely for the way the price is appreciating. Entering into the move only understanding that what they are buying is going up, so they want to join in too.
Bubble vs. Overvalued: Key Differences
Not every expensive market is a bubble. Several characteristics distinguish a bubble from a simpler and far less dangerous overvaluation:
Elevated Valuations With Reasoned Fundamental Justification
An overvalued market has stretched valuations, but can point to real supporting factors (at least to some degree).
Examples include strong earnings growth, low interest rates, disruption in service or productivity, and providing genuine temporary value.
Even if prices respond to less obvious immediate influencing factors, such as international events, policy changes, and supply issues, the fact that some factors justify continued positive sentiment (even if somewhat unfulfilled) is a positive sign.
Linear or Steady Uptrend
Overvalued markets tend to grind higher with a more sustainable trend rather than a vertical spike. There are normal corrections along the way, even if the highs and lows of a fluctuation are higher.
Reasonable Participation Levels
There is evidence of institutional investors buying on any dips, but common retracements last days or even weeks.
Retail participation exists but isn't frenzied and plastered all over social media every day or referenced in mainstream media consistently.
Some Scepticism Still Exists
There will be some legitimate and contrary opinions about valuations. Major financial media will present both bearish and bullish cases when a stock is discussed.
Trading Strategies for Potential Bubble Management
Here is the scenario: You bought early in the up move, you are now in profit, but some of the bubble signs are beginning to show up in your thinking.
Tiered Profit-Taking Strategies
Don't try to pick the top. As an alternative approach, begin to scale out systematically with partial closes. This will alleviate the potential for FOMO creeping in.
You could stage this with set points, e.g. sell 30% when you've doubled, another 30% when you've tripled, 20% when conditions clearly show evidence of entering bubble territory and, having banked a substantial profit already, you keep the final 20% with a trailing stop for the final run if it happens.
Trailing Stops With Wider Bands to Accommodate Volatility
Let’s assume you see the merit in some form of trial stop. In bubble conditions, normal stop distances will get you whipsawed out. Use percentage-based trailing stops or ATR multiples with enough room to accommodate bigger intraday moves.
For example, if your norm is to trail your stop 1.5 x ATR behind price at the end of every candle, then in increasingly volatile conditions during a parabolic move, consider 2,5 x ATR to allow room to move while still offering protection against price collapse.
Reduce Position Sizing and Leverage
The temptation in bubbles is to maximise gains by increasing your margin and entering more and more positions in one asset.
High leverage and significant single asset exposure in bubble conditions is a potential death sentence to trading capital.
Recognising the added risks you are contemplating before entry is critical. Combining this with an approach that reduces position sizing and increases margin requirements is consistent with good trading practice as risk increases.
Planned and Rigid Exits
Before buying, you should have already made decisions on what exit approaches you should take and the parameters at which they will be executed,
Having the exit plan as you enter can limit the chance of getting trapped by greed. Neglecting this and focusing on the opportunity alone can be disastrous.
Never Assume You Can Time the Top
It is usually a big mistake if you believe you will recognise the exact top and exit perfectly. Let’s be frank, even if you hit it lucky once, you won't be able to every time — no one does.
Recognise Behavioural Biases That May Affect Your Judgment
Bubbles can create powerful psychological forces.
Anchoring bias may mean that you fixate on peak prices. Confirmation bias makes you seek information supporting your bullish view and ignore opposing evidence. Recency bias makes you believe the recent trend will continue indefinitely.
The indisputable key to any bias management is awareness and honesty that some markets may just not be for you (or if they are, to proceed with extreme and continuous caution).
Psychological Preparation for Rapid Reversals
Mentally rehearse the worst scenario and clarity of planned action, e.g., “if it drops 10% in three days, I will ….”.
Having thought through your response and armed with unambiguous exits in advance will make execution easier when emotions run high and begin to dominate.
Final Thoughts
Extreme valuations, little fundamental underpinning, parabolic price action, and universal bullishness should be part of your bubble identification checklist and flag that your bubble action plan should be implemented.
If you are already in, or tempted to be so, then approach bubbles with honesty, awareness of your trading self and extraordinary discipline to follow through, as predicting what and when things may dramatically turn is close to impossible.
Never forget you are not smarter than the market, but you can (potentially) be smarter than many traders by planning and doing the right thing.